Mike ClayDec 24, 2025, 04:13 PM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Why George Kittle ranks No. 1 among TE’s in Week 17 (1:53)Daniel Dopp and Stephania Bell review George Kittle’s Week 16 fantasy performance and injury status ahead of Week 17. (1:53)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
DAL-WAS | DET-MIN | DEN-KC | HOU-LAC | BAL-GB | ARI-CIN | PIT-CLE | NO-TEN JAX-IND | TB-MIA | NE-NYJ| SEA-CAR| NYG-LV | PHI-BUF| CHI-SF | LAR-ATL
Fantasy Scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. returned from a one-game absence on Sunday and resumed duties as the team’s lead back. Rodriguez handled 15 carries and one target on 28 snaps, compared to one carry and three targets on 12 snaps for Jeremy McNichols and eight carries and zero targets on 11 snaps for Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Rodriguez found the end zone for the fifth time in his past eight games and his fantasy point total (13.9) was his highest of the season. However, the veteran back remains a nonfactor in the passing game (12 yards on just three targets over 12 games), which has severely limited his fantasy appeal. He remains no more than a TD-dependent flex, even in a plus matchup against a Dallas defense that sits top-eight in yards, touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Shadow Report: Washington’s receivers should be upgraded against an injury-plagued and struggling Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the second most to the perimeter. Dallas has allowed the most yardage and touchdowns (26), and sits top-two in yards per target (9.7) and catch rate (69%) allowed to receivers. Having Josh Johnson under center adds risk, but McLaurin should be in lineups and Deebo Samuel is on the WR3 radar.
Especially against a terrific Denver defense, Oladokun is certainly not a starting option in fantasy and his presence means we’re unlikely to get much from the team’s backs and pass catchers. That includes Travis Kelce, who was limited to 6 yards on four targets on Sunday and now has exactly one catch in two of his past three games. Kelce is a borderline starting option, at best. As for the team’s wide receivers …
Fantasy Scoop: With Woody Marks sidelined last week, Houston’s running back deployment was as follows: Jawhar Jordan (28 snaps, 15 carries, 5 targets), Nick Chubb (20 snaps, 6 carries, 1 target) and Dare Ogunbowale (11 snaps, 1 carry, 1 target). Jordan — a 2024 sixth-round pick — was obviously very busy, though he didn’t move the needle a ton, totaling just 70 yards on 20 touches (Chubb had 42 yards on just seven touches).
If Marks returns this week, he’ll be no more than a flex option in a hard matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to backs over the past eight weeks. If Marks remains out, Jordan will make for an uninspiring flex option in this matchup, especially with Chubb and Ogunbowale also ticketed for a role.
Shadow Report: Quentin Johnston is a candidate to draw shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. Stingley hasn’t needed to travel since Week 9, but he has done so this season against top perimeter receivers, including Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr. and Sutton. Johnston has been inconsistent, but he’s the team’s clear No. 1 outside receiver and he is coming off a strong performance (4-104-1 on five targets).
Even if Stingley doesn’t shadow, this is a tough assignment for Chargers receivers. The Texans have allowed eight TDs, the lowest catch rate (54%) and second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, as well as the lowest EPA against the pass. Only six receivers have reached 13 points against them and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Nacua. The Los Angeles receiver room is best avoided this week.
Lineup locks: Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Michael Wilson, Tee Higgins, Trey McBride
If Sampson remains out, the two would likely play the same roles and would be best left on benches against a Steelers defense that has allowed only seven touchdowns to backs this season. If Sampson returns, he’ll be worth considering as a flex dart throw. He started for Cleveland when Judkins was out in Week 1 and, while he didn’t do much on the ground (29 yards on 12 carries), he did add 64 yards on eight targets.
Fantasy Scoop: Quinn Ewers made his first NFL start on Sunday. The bad news is Miami lost 45-21 and Ewers was held to zero TDs, two INTs and 6.9 fantasy points. The good news is he completed 67% of his passes and racked up a healthy 260 passing yards on 30 attempts (8.7 YPA). Miami’s offense was effective enough to allow a strong showing from Achane (18.0 fantasy points), as well as solid production from Jaylen Wright (12.3), Waddle (12.2) and Malik Washington (10.2).
Granted, the game was against one of the league’s shakiest defenses (Bengals), but Week 17 presents a matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has been very generous in fantasy. Achane remains a lineup lock, as does Waddle, who put up 72 yards on nine targets (31% team share) in Ewers’ debut. Darren Waller (3-40-0 on five targets last week) is a deep-league streaming option against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 10 touchdowns and the seventh-most TE fantasy points.
That drought includes Breece Hall, who has managed a mere 143 yards and zero touchdowns on 46 touches during the span (6.1 PPG), and is no more than a fringe RB2 against a Patriots defense that has allowed the third-lowest yards per carry (3.9) and third-fewest fantasy points to backs this season. No other Jets should be in lineups, with Mitchell the closest to flex value.
Fantasy Scoop: Kenneth Walker III is fresh off his best fantasy outing of the season, having totaled 164 yards and one TD on 14 touches. Walker’s 25.4 fantasy points bring him to four games with 18-plus points this season, though he has been held to 13.1 or fewer in each of his other 11 games (7.7 average). Walker remains in a full-on committee with Zach Charbonnet, which has limited him to 12.7 carries and 2.1 targets per game.
Charbonnet has operated as the primary goal line back, which has helped him to nine touchdowns and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to three TDs and five carries inside the 5 for Walker. Walker’s role breeds inconsistent fantasy output, but the good news is a plus matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (sixth highest) and the eighth-most fantasy points to backs. Walker is on the RB2 radar.
Fantasy Scoop: When Jaxson Dart retires some day, Week 16 of the 2025 season may go down as the least productive game of his NFL career. The rookie played the entire game, but was held to 7-of-13 for 33 yards, zero TDs and one INT, adding only 7 yards on two carries. Dart finished with 0.02 fantasy points after averaging 21.8 during his first nine starts.
The dud is alarming and makes him a risky play here in Week 17, but it’s worth noting it came against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. Life should be a bit easier this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed the sixth-highest EPA to opposing passing games. Dart remains in the QB1 discussion, as his entire body of work has been exceptional from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s no longer a safe starting option.
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Rams receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks, including the second most to the perimeter. The Falcons have allowed 18 touchdowns to receivers (fourth most) and McMillan, Smith-Njigba and Mitchell have each cleared 24 points against them since Week 11. Nacua is positioned for another elite game and, with Davante Adams still out, Konata Mumpfield is a Week 17 deep sleeper.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Detroit’s receivers against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, both overall and to the perimeter this season. Minnesota has surrendered the second-fewest catches and sixth-fewest TDs (eight) to the position. After Giants receivers were limited to a total of 7.0 fantasy points against the Vikings on Sunday, only nine receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season. St. Brown and Williams remain lineup locks (the duo combined for 35.3 points in the Week 9 meeting), but there’s higher “bust risk” than usual.