Zach KramDec 26, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseZach Kram is a national NBA writer for ESPN.com, specializing in short- and long-term trends across the league’s analytics landscape. He previously worked at The Ringer covering the NBA and MLB. You can follow Zach on X via @zachkram.
play0:47Knicks hold off Cavaliers in wild late sequenceThe Knicks finish off their comeback with a wild late sequence to down the Cavaliers.
play1:18Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Game HighlightsHouston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Game Highlights
play1:14Warriors cruise past Mavs on Christmas DayThe Warriors win their third straight game with a victory over the Mavericks on Christmas.
Steph Curry notches his 26,000th career point (0:17)Steph Curry gets in the lane and scores to reach 26,000 career points for the Warriors. (0:17)
Knicks hold off Cavaliers in wild late sequenceThe Knicks finish off their comeback with a wild late sequence to down the Cavaliers.
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Game HighlightsHouston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Game Highlights
Warriors cruise past Mavs on Christmas DayThe Warriors win their third straight game with a victory over the Mavericks on Christmas.
As befits one of the crown jewels of the NBA’s calendar, this year’s Christmas slate featured almost all of the best teams in the league. With apologies to the East-leading Detroit Pistons, it’s likely that most of the teams that will play deep into next spring also played in front of a national audience on Christmas.
Oklahoma City is allowing 9.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average this season, according to Basketball Reference. The previous record, going back to 1973-74 (the first year with recorded defensive ratings), is from the 2003-04 Spurs, at 8.8 points below average.
A season after the Thunder won the title largely because they boasted the NBA’s best defense, that unit has reached a historically unprecedented level in 2025-26.
Oklahoma City’s lopsided schedule has been a discussion point, but it’s worth emphasizing just how easy its early slate was: During the Thunder’s 24-1 start, only three of their 25 games (12%) came against Detroit, New York or teams in the top six in the West. But 21 of their last 57 games (37%) are scheduled against those top-tier teams.
After losses to the Spurs (three times, including on Christmas) and Timberwolves, the Thunder are now 3-4 with a minus-0.6 point differential against the other best teams in the league, with one of those wins coming in double overtime against the Rockets. For comparison, the Thunder are 23-1 with a plus-18.2 scoring margin against all other teams.
The defending champions remain the clear title favorite regardless. But they’ll likely have to beat multiple elite teams in the playoffs — and that won’t come nearly as easily as the routine blowouts against non-elite competition that have built up their record point differential.
The Knicks finish off their comeback with a wild late sequence to down the Cavaliers.
Wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are combining to make 40% of their 3-pointers, with all three at 38% or better. That’s a big step up from last season, when that trio was at 35.7% and only Anunoby was making his 3s at an above-average rate.
It’s hard to overstate how important this trend is if it continues: If defenses can’t play off the Knicks’ three wings, then they can’t easily help against Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, New York’s two leading scorers. In particular, the frequent opponent strategy of defending Hart with a center to match a forward against Towns can’t work if Hart is nailing so many of his resulting open 3s.
Before last week, Mitchell Robinson was just 6-for-27 on free throws, or 22%. He’s since gone 10-for-13, boosting his overall season average to 40%, but that’s still a worrisome rate. His size and offensive rebounding prowess make Robinson a vital member of this Knicks squad; New York has a plus-8.5 net rating with him on the floor this year, excelling both when Robinson is the lone big and when he plays in a Twin Towers alignment with Towns.
It would be a huge blow to the Knicks’ playoff chances if opponents can knock Robinson — a career 39% free throw shooter in the playoffs — off the floor with a Hack-a-Mitch tactic.
The Nuggets are finally holding steady when Nikola Jokic leaves the floor, after years of heavy losses without him. Here is Denver’s net rating over the past five seasons with Jokic on the bench:
The Nuggets’ offseason additions deserve most of the credit here: Jonas Valanciunas is a solid backup center behind the three-time MVP, and Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. have also helped stabilize the bench.
This improvement is especially impressive because Aaron Gordon — who has led the frontcourt when Jokic rested in previous postseasons — hasn’t played in more than a month due to a hamstring strain. That means 89% of Denver’s non-Jokic minutes have come with Gordon also on the bench. That’s a great sign for Denver’s chances of maintaining this new level in non-Jokic minutes in the playoffs.
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Game Highlights
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers: Game Highlights
Thanks to Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun and a generally massive rotation, the Rockets’ offensive rebounding rate is 43% higher than the league average this season, which is by far the best margin in NBA history. In an era with relatively low offensive rebounding rates, Houston has the highest rate since 1994-95, according to Basketball Reference, and one of the 10 best on record. (Offensive rebound data goes back to 1973-74.)
And here’s a fun fact for Rockets fans: The previous record for league-adjusted offensive rebounding rate belonged to the 2015-16 Thunder, who grabbed offensive rebounds 31% more frequently than the NBA average. Those extra chances helped the Thunder push the 73-9 Warriors to Game 7 in the conference finals, with only a Klay Thompson heater preventing a massive upset. Perhaps this outlier skill could help the Rockets in another showdown a decade later.
Among 174 players with at least 100 jump shots this season, Amen Thompson ranks last with a 26% effective field goal percentage on jumpers, while Sengun ranks 163rd at 42%.
Though new Rocket Kevin Durant leads the team in scoring, the team’s ultimate playoff hopes might rest on the development of Sengun and Thompson, the young duo with a bright future in Houston. And while both players have improved in various ways this season — Sengun should make his second All-Star team — and rank second and third on the team in scoring, they still struggle to score away from the basket.
Other Rockets, such as Durant and second-year guard Reed Sheppard, are knockdown shooters. But crunch time in the playoffs could be tricky with two non-shooters on the floor, or even a third if Adams joins for an edge on the boards.
Before a loss in Chicago last week, Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson invoked the memory of the 2021-22 Boston Celtics as another talented team that took a while to jell: Those Celtics started 25-25, then finished the regular season on a 26-6 stretch and reached the Finals. One factor that aided those Celtics’ run — but Atkinson didn’t mention — was weak conference competition, as the top-seeded Miami Heat went just 53-29.
Given Cleveland’s rotten start in 2025-26, the team’s biggest source of hope is that the East will offer a similarly forgiving path this year.
The Thunder’s historically great defense is allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. When Victor Wembanyama is on the floor, the Spurs are allowing 101.7.
Among players averaging 15-plus minutes in 15-plus games this year, the top four players in individual defensive rating are on the Thunder. Next is Wembanyama, who elevates an otherwise below-average defense into a fearsome terror by himself.
Out of 28 guards averaging at least 20 points per 36 minutes this season (minimum 15 games), only four are shooting 30% or worse on 3-pointers: Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Booker and T.J. McConnell. The two young Spurs on that list are a combined 28.8% from distance, including an 0-for-3 showing on Christmas.
Thus far, all those long-range misfires haven’t slowed the Spurs down. In fact, lineups with Castle and Harper playing together have a massive plus-23.0 net rating, with a good offense and stifling defense.
In a very small sample, moreover, lineups with Castle, Harper and Wembanyama playing together have been so dominant that the numbers are hard to believe: a plus-51.1 net rating or, in raw numbers, a plus-59 scoring margin in 55 minutes.
Nevertheless, those unsightly 3-point numbers from Castle and Harper provide a potential warning sign for the playoffs, when smart, locked-in defenses will crowd Wembanyama’s space inside and force his young teammates to make shots from the perimeter. Whether they can may determine whether San Antonio is a true threat to reach the Finals this year, or whether the Spurs need more seasoning before they’re ready to win the West.
The Warriors win their third straight game with a victory over the Mavericks on Christmas.
The flip side of the Warriors’ defensive strength, however, is an offensive weakness that has kept Golden State hovering around .500: The Warriors rank just 23rd in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass, which is the worst mark of the Stephen Curry era (not counting the injury-ravaged 2019-20 campaign). One chief culprit is a lack of easy buckets, as the Warriors are scoring just 42 points per game in the paint — the fewest for any team except the Nets.
Because of their strength on the perimeter, the Warriors have never been the most paint-heavy team, but they’ve never ranked at the bottom of the league when successful, either. During their four-year peak from 2014-15 through 2017-18, they ranked second, ninth, seventh and 16th in points in the paint.
For reference, only three five-man lineups with at least 250 minutes last season had a better net rating than plus-11.2, and their teams — Boston, Oklahoma City and Indiana — either entered the 2024-25 playoffs as favorites or reached the Finals.