Bill ConnellyDec 26, 2025, 09:21 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play1:26Leboeuf: Big teams like Arsenal ‘need all the trophies’Frank Lebouef reacts to Arsenal’s Carabao Cup win over Crystal Palace that keeps them in contention for four trophies this season.
play1:01Nicol impressed as Chelsea ‘dominate’ for second half comebackSteve Nicol praises Chelsea’s second half performance to draw 2-2 vs. Newcastle in the Premier League.
play2:34Did Aston Villa deserve to beat Manchester United?Janusz Michallik and Rob Dawson both believe Aston Villa were lucky beat Manchester United 2-1 at Villa Park.
Which striker has had the best start to the 2025-26 season? (2:41)Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate which midfielder and striker has made the best start to the 2025-26 season. (2:41)
Leboeuf: Big teams like Arsenal ‘need all the trophies’Frank Lebouef reacts to Arsenal’s Carabao Cup win over Crystal Palace that keeps them in contention for four trophies this season.
Frank Lebouef reacts to Arsenal’s Carabao Cup win over Crystal Palace that keeps them in contention for four trophies this season.
Nicol impressed as Chelsea ‘dominate’ for second half comebackSteve Nicol praises Chelsea’s second half performance to draw 2-2 vs. Newcastle in the Premier League.
Steve Nicol praises Chelsea’s second half performance to draw 2-2 vs. Newcastle in the Premier League.
Did Aston Villa deserve to beat Manchester United?Janusz Michallik and Rob Dawson both believe Aston Villa were lucky beat Manchester United 2-1 at Villa Park.
Janusz Michallik and Rob Dawson both believe Aston Villa were lucky beat Manchester United 2-1 at Villa Park.
It’s the festive season, which means it’s once again time for most major European leagues to give teams a little bit of a break while English teams (and Italian ones, to a degree) charge ahead with league play and two different cups. That’s what the money’s for, I guess.
The list below isn’t opponent-adjusted, and two months isn’t a long enough time to generate a true, predictive sample. But a list like this can still tell us who is in the best raw form right now. And the theme of 2025-26 remains the same: While Bayern Munich are no longer dominating so much that they’re breaking the trend line, they’re still setting the pace, and only Arsenal and maybe Manchester City are on a similar plane of existence.
(Note: For each team’s upcoming schedule, I’ve bolded the matches against other teams in this top 20 list.)
– Schoenfeld: The rise and rebirth of Sunderland, the club and the city – ESPN FC Women’s Rank: The world’s top 50 players in 2025 – O’Hanlon: Are Chelsea using Strasbourg as a farm team?
Past two months: 13 matches, 32 points (2.46 PPG), +1.36 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Wolfsburg (Jan. 11), at Koln (Jan. 14), at RB Leipzig (Jan. 21), Union Saint-Gilloise (Champions League, Jan. 21)
They recently got Alphonso Davies back, too, and Jamal Musiala appears ready to return in January following his horrific broken leg suffered in the summer’s FIFA Club World Cup. The loss at Arsenal in November was a genuine setback, but a full-strength Bayern could be capable of revenge in the Champions League knockout stages. And either way, they remain Europe’s overall pace-setters.
Past two months: 13 matches, 32 points (2.46 PPG), +1.23 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Brighton (Dec. 27), Aston Villa (Dec. 30), at Bournemouth (Jan. 3), Liverpool (Jan. 8), at Portsmouth (FA Cup, Jan. 11), at Nottingham Forest (Jan. 17), at Inter Milan (Champions League, Jan. 20)
Leboeuf: Big teams like Arsenal ‘need all the trophies’
Past two months: 14 matches, 33 points (2.36 PPG), +1.09 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Nottingham Forest (Dec. 27), at Sunderland (Jan. 1), Chelsea (Jan. 4), Brighton (Jan. 7), Exeter City (FA Cup, Jan. 10), at Newcastle (League Cup, Jan. 13), at Manchester United (Jan. 17), at Bodo/Glimt (Champions League, Jan. 20)
I still can’t say I totally trust City’s transition defense; in a four-game span a few weeks ago, they allowed 10 combined goals to Newcastle, Bayer Leverkusen, Leeds and Fulham, losing twice. But in their last five matches, including an away win against Real Madrid, they’ve outscored opponents 13-1. They’ve committed more fouls than they’ve suffered in this span, too, hinting at a level of physicality and tactical-fouling that could honestly help immensely.
City are within two points of Arsenal in the Premier League; it would be such an epic stomach punch if Arsenal not only didn’t win the league this year, but lost it to its old, inevitable enemy.
Is Guardiola right for proposing Man City weigh-in after Christmas?
Past two months: 13 matches, 27 points (2.08 PPG), +0.94 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Pisa (Dec. 27), Lecce (Jan. 3), at Sassuolo (Jan. 6), Cremonese (Jan. 12), at Cagliari (Jan. 17), Benfica (Champions League, Jan. 21)
If they take care of business during their reasonably easy run of upcoming matches, they could be first in Serie A, or awfully close to it, by the time Champions League play resumes.
Past two months: 10 matches, 19 points (1.90 PPG), +0.94 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at St. Pauli (Jan. 10), Freiburg (Jan. 14), Bayern Munich (Jan. 17)
Behold, the first genuinely strange name on the list. After charging to second place in the Bundesliga, RBL have won only three of their last seven league matches, and while they probably deserved better than matching 3-1 scorelines in losses to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, they were still a combined minus-2.5 xG in those games.
This team is reliant enough on youngsters that it might be destined to go through epic ups and downs all season, but the ups are pretty magnificent.
Past two months: 11 matches, 23 points (2.09 PPG), +0.92 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Paris FC (Jan. 4), Marseille (Super Cup, Jan. 8), Paris FC (Coupe de France, Jan. 12), Lille (Jan. 16), at Sporting CP (Champions League, Jan. 20), at Auxerre (Jan. 23)
Luis Enrique continues to remind us that PSG are playing the long game. They have dropped points in both Ligue 1 (where they currently trail Lens in the table) and the Champions League (five points behind Arsenal), and in 11 matches in these competitions over the last two months, he’s started 22 different players, and stars Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Achraf Hakimi have barely played.
And yet … here they are, sixth on this form list and playing far better than they did last December, before they shifted into gear and wrecked all comers domestic and continental. They’re hiding in plain sight right now.
Past two months: 12 matches, 24 points (2.00 PPG), +0.91 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Atalanta (Dec. 28), Bologna (Jan. 4), at Parma (Jan. 7), Napoli (Jan. 11), Lecce (Jan. 14), at Udinese (Jan. 17), Arsenal (Champions League, Jan. 20)
Past two months: 12 matches, 28 points (2.33 PPG), +0.86 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Espanyol (Jan. 3), Athletic Club (Jan. 7), at Real Sociedad (Jan. 18), at Slavia Prague (Champions League, Jan. 21)
Why Barcelona has been the right place for Marcus Rashford
Past two months: 10 matches, 18 points (1.80 PPG), +0.71 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Elche (Jan. 3), Deportivo Alaves (Jan. 10), at Real Betis (Jan. 18), Ajax (Champions League, Jan. 20)
That furthered the theme of 2025-26: Villarreal are disappointing when the bright lights are on, and they’re incredible otherwise. This two month sample includes three Champions League losses — they are a shocking 35th out of 36 teams — and the Barca loss, and yet they still rank highly because the sample also includes six dominant wins by a combined 15-3. They’re the RB Leipzig of Spain, apparently.
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +0.64 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Real Betis (Jan. 4), vs. Atletico Madrid (Super Cup, Jan. 8), Levante (Jan. 18), Monaco (Champions League, Jan. 20)
This being Real Madrid!, however, that’s certainly unacceptable, and there’s no question that their defense has been hit-and-miss. They’ve allowed under 1.0 xG in a match just twice in this two-month sample. But injuries have played a major role in that, and the underlying attacking numbers are strong enough that simply riding out this bumpy-by-their-definitions stretch would be an obvious answer for basically any club other than this one.
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +0.61 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Monaco (Jan. 3), at Lille (Coupe de France, Jan. 11), Brest (Jan. 18), at Young Boys (Europa League, Jan. 22)
Since a frustrating, five-game winless streak in November, Lyon have been mostly excellent, winning four matches by a combined 12-1 and losing only to surprising Ligue 1 leader Lens. Granted, their performance against Lens was atrocious (xGD: minus-2.1), but the upside of an attack built around wingers Pavel Sulc and 20-year-old Afonso Moreira (combined: eight goals, eight assists and 27 chances created in this span) is showing.
Past two months: 12 matches, 22 points (1.83 PPG), +0.61 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Real Madrid (Jan. 4), at Real Oviedo (Jan. 10), Villarreal (Jan. 18), at PAOK (Europa League, Jan. 22)
In the last two months, Betis have lost only to Atletico Madrid and Barcelona and have enjoyed five wins — including one over the aforementioned Lyon — by multiple goals. Antony (five goals and three assists in this span) has been solid, but seven different players have delivered at least two combined goals and assists, and that number rises to 13 if you include Copa del Rey action.
Perhaps most encouraging: They’ve crafted a roster core that is built to peak at the same time: Of the 12 players who have played at least 650 minutes in this two-month stretch, 10 are between 24 and 29.
Past two months: 14 matches, 25 points (1.79 PPG), +0.59 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Aston Villa (Dec. 27), Bournemouth (Dec. 30), at Manchester City (Jan. 4), Fulham (Jan. 7), at Charlton (FA Cup, Jan. 10), Arsenal or Crystal Palace (League Cup, Jan. 14), Brentford (Jan. 17), Pafos (Champions League, Jan. 21)