Bracketology: Vanderbilt is exceeding expectations as a projected 2-seed

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 12/30/2025 at 8:30 a.m. ETThe conference play portion of the 2025-26 season will begin in earnest with the arrival of the new calendar year. Which means Bracketology, too, will update its schedule: Beginning in January, we will have two updates each week, all the way through to the end of the regular season.

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Philadelphia1 UConn – aq16 Colgate – aq8 Auburn9 SMUOklahoma City5 Tennessee12 William & Mary – aq4 Kansas13 Illinois State – aqBuffalo6 Arkansas11 Miami/ Ohio State3 Michigan State14 Quinnipiac – aqGreenville7 St. John’s10 LSU2 Duke – aq15 Vermont – aq

SOUTH (HOUSTON)St. Louis1 Iowa State16aq – Milwaukeeaq – Grambling/8 Clemson9 Seton HallTampa5 Louisville12aq – Yale4 Alabama13aq – High PointPortland6 Virginia11 Indiana3 BYU14aq – Hawai’iSt. Louis7 Kentucky10aq – Saint Louis2 Purdue15aq – Stephen F. Austin

Bracket WatchTop Overall SeedMichiganFirst Team OutOklahoma StateLast Team InOklahomaThe SEC dominated headlines last season, but at least one of its record 14 NCAA tournament teams remained under the radar: Vanderbilt. Under new coach Mark Byington, the Commodores went 20-13 and earned the school’s first NCAA bid in eight years. But they also lost their last four games, including their SEC (Texas) and NCAA (Saint Mary’s) tournament openers. Incremental improvement was thus the forecast for this season, so it’s fair to say their unbeaten record (13-0) and projected 2-seed have caught most of the nation off guard — or at least those who voted them 11th in the SEC’s preseason poll. Will this nonconference success carry over? KenPom pegs Vandy with the second-best offense and third-best defense in the SEC, so a run good enough to match the Sweet 16 years of 2004 and 2007 seems plausible. The Dores haven’t been further than that since 1965, but we could be witnessing history in the making.

68-Team Bracket16Lindenwood16Howard11Butler11Oklahoma11Miami11Ohio State16Milwaukee16GramblingMIDWEST (CHICAGO)Buffalo1 Michigan – aq16 Lindenwood – aq/ Howard – aq8 Georgia9 UCFSan Diego5 Texas Tech12 Utah Valley – aq4 North Carolina13 Arkansas State – aqPhiladelphia6 Iowa11 Butler/ Oklahoma3 Houston14 Lipscomb – aqGreenville7 Villanova10 NC State2 Vanderbilt – aq15 St. Thomas-Minnesota – aqEAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Philadelphia1 UConn – aq16 Colgate – aq8 Auburn9 SMUOklahoma City5 Tennessee12 William & Mary – aq4 Kansas13 Illinois State – aqBuffalo6 Arkansas11 Miami/ Ohio State3 Michigan State14 Quinnipiac – aqGreenville7 St. John’s10 LSU2 Duke – aq15 Vermont – aqWEST (SAN JOSE)San Diego1aq – Arizona16aq – Long Island8 Saint Mary’s9 UCLATampa5 Florida12aq – Akron4 Nebraska13aq – LibertyOklahoma City6 USC11aq – Tulsa3 Illinois14aq – Northern ColoradoPortland7aq – Utah State10 Baylor2aq – Gonzaga15aq – FurmanSOUTH (HOUSTON)St. Louis1 Iowa State16aq – Milwaukeeaq – Grambling/8 Clemson9 Seton HallTampa5 Louisville12aq – Yale4 Alabama13aq – High PointPortland6 Virginia11 Indiana3 BYU14aq – Hawai’iSt. Louis7 Kentucky10aq – Saint Louis2 Purdue15aq – Stephen F. Austin

On the BubbleLast Four Byes NC State LSU Baylor IndianaLast Four In Miami Ohio State Butler OklahomaFirst Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California New MexicoNext Four Out Virginia Tech Arizona State Creighton VCU

First Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California New Mexico

Next Four Out Virginia Tech Arizona State Creighton VCU

16Lindenwood16Howard11Butler11Oklahoma11Miami11Ohio State16Milwaukee16Grambling

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)Buffalo1 Michigan – aq16 Lindenwood – aq/ Howard – aq8 Georgia9 UCFSan Diego5 Texas Tech12 Utah Valley – aq4 North Carolina13 Arkansas State – aqPhiladelphia6 Iowa11 Butler/ Oklahoma3 Houston14 Lipscomb – aqGreenville7 Villanova10 NC State2 Vanderbilt – aq15 St. Thomas-Minnesota – aq

WEST (SAN JOSE)San Diego1aq – Arizona16aq – Long Island8 Saint Mary’s9 UCLATampa5 Florida12aq – Akron4 Nebraska13aq – LibertyOklahoma City6 USC11aq – Tulsa3 Illinois14aq – Northern ColoradoPortland7aq – Utah State10 Baylor2aq – Gonzaga15aq – Furman

The conference play portion of the 2025-26 season will begin in earnest with the arrival of the new calendar year. Which means Bracketology, too, will update its schedule: Beginning in January, we will have two updates each week, all the way through to the end of the regular season.

The SEC dominated headlines last season, but at least one of its record 14 NCAA tournament teams remained under the radar: Vanderbilt. Under new coach Mark Byington, the Commodores went 20-13 and earned the school’s first NCAA bid in eight years. But they also lost their last four games, including their SEC (Texas) and NCAA (Saint Mary’s) tournament openers. Incremental improvement was thus the forecast for this season, so it’s fair to say their unbeaten record (13-0) and projected 2-seed have caught most of the nation off guard — or at least those who voted them 11th in the SEC’s preseason poll. Will this nonconference success carry over? KenPom pegs Vandy with the second-best offense and third-best defense in the SEC, so a run good enough to match the Sweet 16 years of 2004 and 2007 seems plausible. The Dores haven’t been further than that since 1965, but we could be witnessing history in the making.

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 12/30/2025 at 8:30 a.m. ETThe conference play portion of the 2025-26 season will begin in earnest with the arrival of the new calendar year. Which means Bracketology, too, will update its schedule: Beginning in January, we will have two updates each week, all the way through to the end of the regular season.

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)Buffalo1 Michigan – aq16 Lindenwood – aq/ Howard – aq8 Georgia9 UCFSan Diego5 Texas Tech12 Utah Valley – aq4 North Carolina13 Arkansas State – aqPhiladelphia6 Iowa11 Butler/ Oklahoma3 Houston14 Lipscomb – aqGreenville7 Villanova10 NC State2 Vanderbilt – aq15 St. Thomas-Minnesota – aqEAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)Philadelphia1 UConn – aq16 Colgate – aq8 Auburn9 SMUOklahoma City5 Tennessee12 William & Mary – aq4 Kansas13 Illinois State – aqBuffalo6 Arkansas11 Miami/ Ohio State3 Michigan State14 Quinnipiac – aqGreenville7 St. John’s10 LSU2 Duke – aq15 Vermont – aqWEST (SAN JOSE)San Diego1aq – Arizona16aq – Long Island8 Saint Mary’s9 UCLATampa5 Florida12aq – Akron4 Nebraska13aq – LibertyOklahoma City6 USC11aq – Tulsa3 Illinois14aq – Northern ColoradoPortland7aq – Utah State10 Baylor2aq – Gonzaga15aq – FurmanSOUTH (HOUSTON)St. Louis1 Iowa State16aq – Milwaukeeaq – Grambling/8 Clemson9 Seton HallTampa5 Louisville12aq – Yale4 Alabama13aq – High PointPortland6 Virginia11 Indiana3 BYU14aq – Hawai’iSt. Louis7 Kentucky10aq – Saint Louis2 Purdue15aq – Stephen F. Austin

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Top Overall SeedMichiganFirst Team OutOklahoma StateLast Team InOklahoma

Last Four Byes NC State LSU Baylor IndianaLast Four In Miami Ohio State Butler OklahomaFirst Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California New MexicoNext Four Out Virginia Tech Arizona State Creighton VCU

16Lindenwood16Howard11Butler11Oklahoma11Miami11Ohio State16Milwaukee16Grambling

16Lindenwood16Howard11Butler11Oklahoma11Miami11Ohio State16Milwaukee16Grambling

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

Bracket WatchTop Overall SeedMichiganFirst Team OutOklahoma StateLast Team InOklahomaThe SEC dominated headlines last season, but at least one of its record 14 NCAA tournament teams remained under the radar: Vanderbilt. Under new coach Mark Byington, the Commodores went 20-13 and earned the school’s first NCAA bid in eight years. But they also lost their last four games, including their SEC (Texas) and NCAA (Saint Mary’s) tournament openers. Incremental improvement was thus the forecast for this season, so it’s fair to say their unbeaten record (13-0) and projected 2-seed have caught most of the nation off guard — or at least those who voted them 11th in the SEC’s preseason poll. Will this nonconference success carry over? KenPom pegs Vandy with the second-best offense and third-best defense in the SEC, so a run good enough to match the Sweet 16 years of 2004 and 2007 seems plausible. The Dores haven’t been further than that since 1965, but we could be witnessing history in the making.On the BubbleLast Four Byes NC State LSU Baylor IndianaLast Four In Miami Ohio State Butler OklahomaFirst Four Out Oklahoma State Boise State California New MexicoNext Four Out Virginia Tech Arizona State Creighton VCU

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