Bill ConnellyDec 30, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play0:21Chauncey Bowens breaks loose for go-ahead Georgia TDChauncey Bowens bursts through the Florida defense for a touchdown to put Georgia up 23-20 in the fourth quarter.
Why Finebaum is most intrigued by Oregon vs. Texas Tech (0:44)Paul Finebaum details why Oregon vs. Texas Tech is the most interesting CFP quarterfinal matchup. (0:44)
Chauncey Bowens breaks loose for go-ahead Georgia TDChauncey Bowens bursts through the Florida defense for a touchdown to put Georgia up 23-20 in the fourth quarter.
Chauncey Bowens bursts through the Florida defense for a touchdown to put Georgia up 23-20 in the fourth quarter.
A rematch of one of the most contentious national title games of the 2000s (Miami-Ohio State). A rematch of a fun October track meet (Georgia-Ole Miss). A battle between new-ish money (Oregon) and new money (Texas Tech). A classic matchup between a proven, unbeaten powerhouse (Indiana) and a scrappy close-game-winning underdog (Alabama, somehow).
The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff kick off Wednesday evening in Arlington, Texas, and they feature something for everyone. They could produce semifinals between four of the sport’s biggest brands or they could give us a huge dose of new-brand energy. They should give us at least a couple of classics.
We had two minor upsets in the first round, with two road teams (Miami and Alabama) advancing for the first time. But the overall title odds didn’t change all that much from an SP+ perspective.
Ohio State and Indiana still lead the way, and the Texas Tech-Oregon winner will be the No. 3 favorite, barring an upset in Arlington or Pasadena.
This time, Ohio State is the defending champ and a nearly double-digit favorite. Will we remember this one for the 23-year revenge, or will it end up simply as a step in another Buckeyes title march?
1. Week 14 vs. Michigan: Julian Sayin’s 35-yard touchdown pass to Jeremiah Smith on fourth-and-5 (11:51 left in the second quarter). Win probability added: 16.4%.
2. Week 5 vs. Washington: Sayin’s 18-yard touchdown pass to Smith (1:14 left in the second quarter). Win probability added: 15.2%.
Ohio State began the season with a tight win over Texas and finished with a tight loss to Indiana. In between, the Buckeyes won 11 games by an average of 39-8. They haven’t faced many close-and-late situations, as exemplified by the fact that the first two plays on this list happened in the second quarter.
Still, these were a couple of good “When in doubt, throw to Jeremiah” moments. In the former, Ohio State trailed 6-3 after a slow start, but Smith’s TD — a little controversial, as it looked as if he might have fumbled — gave the Buckeyes a lead they wouldn’t relinquish in a 27-9 win. In the latter, the Buckeyes again had to work past a slow start in Seattle. They trailed 3-0 near halftime, but Smith came open on a little drag route and burst into the end zone.
3. Week 15 vs. Indiana: Brandon Inniss’ 6-yard pass to Bo Jackson, with a 15-yard Indiana personal foul penalty (4:43 left in the fourth quarter). Win probability added: 13.1%.
Trailing Indiana 13-10 in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State had two chances to tie or take the lead, and after the first opportunity was thwarted by a fourth-and-1 stop of Sayin, the Buckeyes ended up playing things far too conservatively. After this gadget play (and penalty) spiked the Buckeyes’ win probability to 54.8%, they ended up attempting a fourth-and-1 field goal attempt and missed it.
Though the Hoosiers allowed Sayin some easy completions on first and second downs, they were able to frustrate him quite a bit on third down.
Third down (not including a game-ending Hail Mary): 4-for-8 for 34 yards, 1 interception, 2 sacks, 2.6 yards per dropback
(Plus, there’s a chance Smith goes absolutely ballistic in the CFP, to the point that nothing else matters. Ohio State managed his workload pretty well throughout the season, well enough that his stats didn’t earn him the Biletnikoff Award as expected. He noticed.)
The windy conditions in College Station made things particularly untenable for both offenses: Miami’s Carson Beck threw for only 103 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per dropback with only four passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield. And he won. Safe to say, that isn’t going to cut it this week.
Beck completed 80% of his passes and averaged 281.3 yards in his past four games before A&M. At his best, he combines safe decision-making with a willingness to try big-time throws in big moments. But when the interceptions start, sometimes they don’t stop. He threw six in Miami’s two losses.
Toney has only begun his progression as an actual route runner, but if there’s space (or a favorable matchup) available anywhere on the field, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will send Toney there to exploit it.
Ohio State doesn’t blitz much and is happy to react and swarm to the ball, knowing it has the superior athletes it needs. Miami might be able to carve out some efficiency with Toney and Fletcher. But Beck probably will still have to come up big if the Canes are to break the 17-point barrier.
By college football standards, this game could go by in a blink. Miami averages 30.1 seconds per snap (ninth highest in the nation), and Ohio State averages 31.7 (second highest), and neither team should expect more than 10 or 11 possessions. That could both keep the game close and magnify mistakes and missed opportunities. Ohio State is favored for a reason, but Miami has some tantalizing playmakers.
1. Week 8 vs. Arizona State: Will Hammond’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Virgil (2:05 left in the fourth quarter). Win probability added: 30.6%.
2. Week 6 vs. Houston: Morton’s 69-yard touchdown pass to Cameron Dickey (1:07 left in the first quarter). Win probability added: 12.4%.
3. Week 4 vs. Utah: Hammond’s 24-yard touchdown pass to Terrance Carter Jr. (8:36 left in the fourth quarter). Win probability added: 12.3%.
There haven’t been many opportunities for Tech to prove its late-game fortitude, but the Red Raiders certainly proved something at Utah. Morton was injured in the first half, but the Tech defense shut down an otherwise brilliant Utah offense, and the dam eventually burst. Carter’s touchdown put Tech up 20-10, and it quickly piled on two more scores to win 34-10.
Oregon ranks fifth nationally in success rate* and first in percentage of plays gaining at least 20 yards (10.8%). That’s a good combination.
(*Success rate: how frequently an offense gains 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
There is a weakness-versus-weakness component to this matchup, as Tech gives up too many negative plays, but Oregon doesn’t create a ton of them (97th in TFLs per game). And though Tech’s offense is poor in the red zone, Oregon’s defense is strangely even worse (117th in red zone TD rate allowed). But the Ducks could turn this into more of a rock fight than Tech has encountered this season. Of course, Tech’s defense might enjoy that just fine.
The line has moved toward Oregon despite the computers favoring Tech (FPI has Tech by 0.3 points). If there’s any sort of “Go with the team that’s been here before” factor, that makes sense. But again, the sportsbooks (and their bettors) have drastically underestimated Tech all season. No one should be surprised if the Red Raiders advance; they’ve been pretty loudly demonstrating how good they are all season.
1. Week 11 vs. Penn State: Fernando Mendoza’s 7-yard touchdown pass to Omar Cooper Jr. (41 seconds left in the fourth quarter). Win probability added: 52.5%.
2. Week 5 vs. Iowa: Mendoza’s 49-yard touchdown pass to Elijah Sarratt (1:36 left in the fourth quarter). Win probability added: 41.4%.
A week after humiliating No. 9 Illinois, Indiana had to battle both a hangover and an underrated Iowa team at Kinnick Stadium. The score was tied at 13-13 when Iowa’s Zach Lutmer snagged a deflected Mendoza pass and returned it into field goal range. But Drew Stevens missed a 42-yard try. Given a second chance, Mendoza hit Sarratt on a slant, and Sarratt took it from there. IU survived 20-15.
3. Week 11 vs. Penn State: Mendoza’s 29-yard pass to Riley Nowakowski (1:13 left in the fourth quarter). Win probability added: 24.2%.
Granted, IU would have still reached the Big Ten championship game had it lost to Penn State, but no single drive proved the Hoosiers’ fortitude more than the one that set up Cooper’s game-winner. IU had watched a 20-7 lead turn into a sudden, late 24-20 deficit, but a nearly perfect 10-play, 80-yard drive — complemented by this huge catch from the second-team all-conference tight end — saved the day.
Like Oregon, Alabama seems to be getting a familiarity discount from the oddsmakers. SP+ projects Indiana as a 13.2-point favorite, almost a touchdown’s disagreement with the spread. If these teams play like average versions of themselves, the Hoosiers win. But the closer it remains, the more the pressure builds on the favorites.
So let’s walk through the potential warning signs the Goliath from Bloomington must watch out for against the scrappy David from Tuscaloosa. (Sorry again, I’ll stop.)
But Alabama’s defense ranks 10th in rushing success rate allowed. The Tide are strong up front, tackle LT Overton is returning from injury, and linebacker Deontae Lawson’s production has ramped up — he has three TFLs and five run stops in his past three games (plus a sack, a forced fumble and a breakup against Oklahoma). The Tide held Georgia backs to 3.9 yards per carry in the SEC championship game. They could render the Hoosiers one-dimensional.
Now, this isn’t a defense built to contest loads of passes. The Tide play an effective but not incredibly disruptive zone defense.
Still, corners Zabien Brown and Dijon Lee Jr. are strong playmakers, and forcing Mendoza to make lots of plays on passing downs would be step one toward an upset.