play0:45Tage Thompson’s goal ties it up for the SabresA clutch finish from Tage Thompson ties the score for the Sabres.
play0:17Bo Horvat’s lone goal wins the shootout for IslandersBo Horvat’s lone goal wins the shootout for Islanders
play0:38Connor McDavid scores short-handed goal vs. BruinsConnor McDavid scores short-handed goal vs. Bruins
Nick Suzuki wins it in OT for Habs (0:38)Nick Suzuki tallies an overtime goal on a power play to deliver the Canadiens a win vs. the Panthers. (0:38)
Tage Thompson’s goal ties it up for the SabresA clutch finish from Tage Thompson ties the score for the Sabres.
Bo Horvat’s lone goal wins the shootout for IslandersBo Horvat’s lone goal wins the shootout for Islanders
Connor McDavid scores short-handed goal vs. BruinsConnor McDavid scores short-handed goal vs. Bruins
Greg WyshynskiDec 31, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseGreg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.Follow on X
play0:11Jesper Wallstedt makes beautiful saveJesper Wallstedt makes beautiful save
The standings tell us that the 2025-26 NHL season is one of the most competitive in recent memory. History tells us that this is actually the most competitive playoff race we’ve had in the NHL shootout era, beginning in 2005-06.
Entering into Tuesday night’s games, there were 26 teams with a .500 points percentage or greater. According to ESPN Research, that was tied for the largest number of teams at .500 or better at this point in the season (with 616 league games played). But more importantly, the 29 teams that were within four points of a playoff spot was the most the league has ever had this deep into the season. The previous high was 26 teams in 2015-16.
The NHL Bubble Watch is our monthly check-in on the Stanley Cup playoff races using playoff probabilities from Stathletes and Money Puck for all 32 teams. We utilize stats from the NHL, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
The Lightning have the second best points percentage (.618) in the conference, despite a slew of lineup absences this season for players like Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak and Nick Paul. They’ve thrived despite some key players like center Brayden Point (21 points in 31 games) not producing at their usual clips.
As one NHL coach recently told ESPN, the Lightning are the team to beat in the East if they’re at full capacity. “I feel like they’re really figured out their bottom six. I think Kucherov can carry them. They’re going be able to play at a really high level,” the coach said.
MVP: Nikita Kucherov. It’s become so commonplace for Kuch to be dominant that a 49-point performance in his first 34 games barely registers. His 1.44 points-per-game average is the fourth best in the NHL this season. Entering Tuesday, he was leading the Lightning by 10 points (over Jake Guentzel) in four fewer games.
It’s probably not a coincidence that the closer the Panthers come to getting star winger Matthew Tkachuk back in their lineup, the more swaggering they seem to play. Florida went 9-4-1 in 14 games in December, flexing offensively (3.43 goals per game) while doing enough defensively.
The goal was to hang tight until reinforcements arrive. Obviously, Aleksander Barkov is feared lost for the regular season after knee surgery. But Tkachuk’s return will help rebalance the lineup while adding a 100-point winger back into the rats’ nest. Stathletes projects the Panthers to finish with 95.7 points.
MVP: Brad Marchand. The 37-year-old winger was pressed into carrying this team offensively after Barkov and Tkachuk were lost, and he met the challenge. Marchand’s 22 goals and 44 points both led the Panthers are 38 games. He had 14 points on the power play, skating 18:44 on average. A heart-and-soul player who powered the defending champs to the playoff bubble as only Brad Marchand can.
Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Senators this season, who are ninth in goals per game (3.21), and that was with Brady Tkachuk restricted to 18 games due to injury. But they’re 23rd in the NHL overall — and 22nd in the last month — in goals against. That’s despite having an analytically strong team at 5-on-5.
The problem? They have the 32nd best team save percentage in a 32-team league (.872) through 38 games. While Linus Ullmark — current on leave from the team — has shown some uptick in quality recently, Leevi Merilainen was 1-4-0 with an .862 save percentage this month heading into Tuesday night. If the Senators can put it all together, they’ve got something here. But the goaltending has to be at least average for that to happen.
MVP: Jake Sanderson. The defenseman leads the Senators in goals above replacement (11.5) and wins above replacement (2.0) while generating 27 points in 38 games. He plays in every situation for an average of 25:08 per game. Just a do-it-all D-man who has been rock solid for the Sens.
Both stats sites are right around the same number for the Habs, and it’s a probability the Canadiens will no doubt take at this point in the season. Nick Suzuki (42 points) and Cole Caufield (18 goals) were stating their Olympic cases. Lane Hutson (36 points) was building on his rookie of the year 2024-25 campaign, while Ivan Demidov (32 points) was building a case for Montreal to win back-to-back Calders.
The Noah Dobson trade looks like a winner. So does rookie goalie Jakub Dobes, who stabilized the position as Sam Montembeault struggled.
MVP: Nick Suzuki. The 26-year-old continues to put up numbers and play a 200-foot game while being relegated to that tier just below the best-of-the-best centers in the NHL. (See also: Mark Scheifele, Dylan Larkin, Wyatt Johnston). When they decide to put him and Caufield with Juraj Slafkovsky, it’s still one of the best lines in hockey, with a 60.5% goals-for percentage in 278 minutes of ice time this season.
So what was it that turned this Sabres’ season around? Were the players too comfortable under former GM Kevyn Adams, and now suddenly on their toes knowing that Jarmo Kekalainen will trade anyone if given the right deal? Was it Alex Lyon turning into Dominik Hasek in December (7-0-0, .921 save percentage)? Was it a healthy Josh Norris (!) being a point-per-game player?
Was it because, as the podcast What Chaos noted, Buffalo started a winning streak right after it was made a punchline on the hit HBO Max series “Heated Rivalry?”
Whatever the case, welcome back to relevance, Buffalo Sabres. Here’s hoping this isn’t an aberration and the team makes the playoff cut for the first time since 2011.
MVP: Tage Thompson. The Sabres center probably didn’t need to make too loud a statement to earn an Olympic roster spot, given he was “next man up” for the 4 Nations Face-Off gold medal game. But 18 goals in 38 games is a pretty loud closing argument.
A clutch finish from Tage Thompson ties the score for the Sabres.
The Bruins are a team that was carried by two offensive stars in David Pastrnak (41 points) and Morgan Geekie (25 goals), while getting a nice bounce-back season from Jeremy Swayman in goal. But as one NHL coach told ESPN, first-year head coach Marco Sturm has them back on the right track.
“It feels like they’re back to having an identity. Back to being a hard team to play against every night,” the coach said.
MVP: Morgan Geekie. The Bruins forward laughed in the face of regression predictions with an outstanding first 40 games of the season. He entered Tuesday night tied for second in the NHL in goals scored (25) and has 40 points overall.
“I think if you played them the last couple of years, it feels different playing them this year,” one NHL veteran said. “Detroit’s looked pretty good.”
Auston Matthews is in his second season of offensive decline. There’s a Mitch Marner hole they’ve not done nearly anything to fill. Injuries have plagued them. Coach Craig Berube’s seat was so hot that GM Brad Treliving had to give him public support while Peter DeBoer, the guy everyone assumed would be the Leafs’ coach, called Berube to give him a pep talk.
It’s been a hard, weird, frustrating season for a team for whom the championship-contending window may have closed suddenly.
MVP: William Nylander. Willie Styles has 14 goals and 27 assists in 33 gamest this season, leading the Leafs with 41 points. The fact that he’s the only Toronto player at a points-per-game average higher than 1.00 (Nylander is at 1.24) is a stunning warning sign that something’s amiss in the Six.
The Hurricanes remain an Eastern Conference favorite despite some injury concerns (Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin, losing Pyotr Kochetkov for the season). Top to bottom this might be the deepest offensive team that coach Rod Brind’Amour has had in Raleigh, with goal-scoring threats on every line.
MVP: Brandon Bussi. With Frederik Andersen yet to find his stride and Kochetkov having been shut down for surgery, the Hurricanes needed a hero in goal. Enter Bussi, the former Bruins minor leaguer who has gone a preposterous 13-1-1 in 15 games, with a .911 save percentage and 7.0 goals saved above expected, per Stathletes.
Coach Spencer Carbery has the Capitals playing fundamentally sound hockey after two straight playoff appearances, but they’ve been slowly sliding from a torrid early pace. Their power play has struggled all season. Their overall offense has dipped over the last month. They’ve gotten some strong goal-scoring performances and goalie Logan Thompson continues to thrive — 15-10-3, .915 save percentage — but Washington needs to improve its scoring either internally or through outside changes.
MVP: Tom Wilson. What if we told you there was a Washington Capitals player with 19 goals in 38 games, shooting 21.1%, leading the team in power-play goals and overall points this season, while being a physical presence all over the ice? And what if we told you that player’s name was not Alex Ovechkin but Tom Wilson, munching on the Olympic carrot in front of him to have an epic first half of the season.
One of the truly strange stats of the season, for a team in a playoff spot after 37 games: The Flyers have scored the first goal of the game only 12 times, the fewest in the league. They’re 7-3-2 in those games. Which means they gave up the first goal in 25 games, going 12-8-5 for the third highest points percentage when trailing first, behind Colorado and Carolina. That’s what hiring Rick Tocchet gets you: an effort that can sometimes overcome wonky execution.