Mike ClayDec 30, 2025, 07:37 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Why Lamar Jackson isn’t a top-10 fantasy QB for Field Yates (0:45)Field Yates explains his fantasy skepticism for Lamar Jackson vs. the Steelers. (0:45)
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 18, which kicks off on Saturday with a pair of games with playoff implications.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
CAR-TB | SEA-SF | NO-ATL | CLE-CIN | GB-MIN | DAL-NYG | TEN-JAX | IND-HOU NYJ-BUF | DET-CHI | LAC-DEN| KC-LV| ARI-LAR | MIA-NE| WAS-PHI | BAL-PIT
Shadow Report: Upgrade New Orleans’ receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks, including the most to the perimeter. The Falcons have allowed 19 touchdowns to receivers (fourth most), and Tetairoa McMillan, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Adonai Mitchell have each cleared 24 points against them since Week 11. Olave is the only Saints receiver we can count on and he’s well positioned for another big game.
Shadow Report: Whichever receivers are on the field for Green Bay will have their hands full against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers, as well as the second fewest to the perimeter this season. Minnesota has surrendered the third-fewest catches and fifth-fewest TDs (nine) to the position. Only 11 receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season.
Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Wan’Dale Robinson, George Pickens
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading New York’s receivers against a struggling Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the second most to the perimeter. Dallas has allowed the most yardage and touchdowns (26), and sits top two in yards per target (9.8) and catch rate (69%) allowed to receivers. Robinson remains a lineup lock and Darius Slayton a Week 18 deep sleeper/DFS punt.
Shadow Report: If Sauce Gardner is able to play this week, he’s likely to shadow Collins. Gardner shadowed in his first game with the Colts (vs. Drake London in Week 10) and also did last week against Brian Thomas Jr. When these teams met in Week 13, Charvarius Ward shadowed Collins (Gardner left that game injured on the first play). With Ward out and Gardner (hopefully) in, he figures to handle Collins this time around. Expectations for Collins should be lowered only if Gardner plays.
Fantasy scoop: Justin Herbert will be rested for this game, with Trey Lance set to start at quarterback. It’s possible the Chargers choose to rest other starters for some or all of this game, so Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden all carry substantial risk. That risk is baked into the projections of each player, though this is a situation to monitor up until game time.
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: The Eagles are expected to rest their starters this week, which means usual lineup locks like Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will be out or severely limited. This would generally be a downgrade spot for the Washington offense, but facing the Eagles’ backup defenders makes Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel more palatable, even with Josh Johnson likely under center.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Fantasy scoop: After failing to reach 20 fantasy points in any of his first five games of the season, Brock Purdy has hit the mark in three straight. Purdy scored three or more touchdowns in each of the three games, including a game with five passing TDs in Week 16 and one with a pair of rushing TDs in Week 17. Despite the hot streak, Purdy will be a risky start in Week 18 against Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks despite having faced the fifth-most pass attempts. Only three quarterbacks have reached 20 points against them this season, and Purdy was not one of them (16.8 points in Week 1). Purdy is a fringe starting option.
Shadow Report: In related news, San Francisco receivers should be downgraded against a Seattle defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. The Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest yards, lowest yards per target (6.3) and third-lowest catch rate (57%) to receivers despite having faced the fifth-most pass attempts. Only two wideouts have reached 15 fantasy points against them since Week 7. Jennings’ target share has dipped as of late, so he’s best viewed as a WR3, whereas Ricky Pearsall, who put up 108 yards against Seattle in Week 1, is a solid flex.
Fantasy scoop: Tyler Shough continues to deliver the goods, reaching a career high with 21.9 fantasy points on Sunday. The rookie has produced 17-plus fantasy points in six of his eight starts, including five in a row. Shough has produced in different ways, using his legs earlier this season (28-124-2 rushing during Weeks 12-15) and using his arm more the past two games (300-plus passing yards in both and a total of three passing TDs). On the other hand, Shough’s ceiling is limited (his best weekly finish is seventh) and he’s set to face off with an Atlanta defense that held him to 7.9 fantasy points (his lowest total in his eight starts) in Week 12. Shough may have a bright future, but he’s not an ideal Week 18 streamer.
Shadow Report: Jerry Jeudy is a candidate to see DJ Turner shadow coverage this week. Turner has shadowed often this season and has done very well in those spots. The 13 receivers he has shadowed averaged 9.2 fantasy PPG in the game, with only three reaching 13 points. The Bengals have shown well against receivers overall, having allowed them the second-fewest catches, third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points. Only eight receivers have reached 16.0 fantasy points against the Bengals this season, and five of them came prior to Week 6. Jeudy is a weak flex option in the season finale.
Shadow Report: Downgrade the Bengals receivers against a Browns defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fewest over the past eight weeks. After holding Pittsburgh’s receivers to 60 yards on 20 targets on Sunday, Cleveland has allowed the fewest catches and yards to the position. Only four receivers have reached 17.0 fantasy points against the Browns this season. It was a long time ago, but Bengals receivers totaled 59 yards on nine targets when these teams met in Week 1.
Fantasy scoop: The Packers are locked into the NFC’s seven seed and are expected to rest key players this week. Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed will be inactive or play limited snaps and thus should not be near lineups. Malik Willis, who is fresh off a 31.5-point effort against Baltimore, may also sit out, but if even if he plays, he’d be a poor streaming option against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Unless you’re throwing a dart on someone such as Chris Brooks, Bo Melton or Josh Whyle in a DFS tournament, the Packers offense should be avoided this week. On the other hand, the Vikings offense should be upgraded against the Packers’ second- and third-team defenders.
Fantasy scoop: After handling a career-high 48% target share against Las Vegas on Sunday, Robinson leads the NFL with a 36% share since Week 9. His shares by game during the eight-game span are as follows: 34%, 33%, 31%, 41%, 33%, 29%, 46% and 48%. Robinson’s fantasy output has been a bit boom/bust (six games with 15-plus points, but fewer than 9 points six times), but the heavy usage has translated to the 11th-most fantasy points at the position this season. Robinson is locked in as a fringe WR1 and is an elite DFS play this week in a terrific matchup. Speaking of which …
Fantasy scoop: Chig Okonkwo is on a bit of a heater, having posted 14-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Okonkwo scored in both games, and while he saw a season-high eight targets in Week 16, he fell to three in Week 17. That’s notable, as he averaged 4.4 targets per game during his first 14 games of the season and failed to reach 12.0 fantasy points in any of those outings. With Gunnar Helm also involved, Okonkwo remains a part-time player (he played only 51% of the snaps on Sunday) and is no more than a midrange TE2 against a Jaguars defense that has been generous to tight ends (seventh-most fantasy points allowed) but held him to 29 yards on five targets in Week 13.