Jan. 2: Team motivations, player incentives and Week 18’s lines
Dec. 30: MVP favorite Nikola Jokic off the board after injury
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Doug Greenberg: Handicapping the final week of the NFL season is a dubious proposition. With half the league already eliminated from playoff contention, bettors and bookmakers alike have to get creative with wagers.
The Green Bay Packers, for example, are locked into their playoff slot and are choosing to rest many key players, making them 7.5-point road underdogs against the playoff-eliminated Minnesota Vikings. Similarly, the Los Angeles Chargers could wind up in a variety of playoff seeds, but are still sitting several key players amid a host of injuries, making the Denver Broncos (themselves fighting to maintain the AFC’s No. 1 seed) huge 12.5-point favorites, per DraftKings odds.
However, there are some cases that are less straightforward. Joey Feazel, head football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, notes that even though the Detroit Lions are out of the postseason, head coach Dan Campbell could be motivated to play spoiler for his former assistant coach Ben Johnson, whose Chicago Bears are looking to improve their fortunes for the NFC playoffs.
“Adjusting odds based on motivation is always a challenge… but we continually refine our process to improve,” Feazel said via email.
The other main motivation in Week 18 is of the financial nature. Over the past few seasons, NFL spectators have become more aware of contract incentives that allow individual players to cash in on season-long goals, which becomes especially relevant over the regular season’s final weeks. For example, Chargers WR Keenan Allen sits at 73 receptions and, should he hit 80 by the end of the regular season, he’d make an additional $750,000.
BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis said that the book’s trading team is “treating many games in Week 18 like the preseason, which means prop markets will be released closer to game time with team/player motivations unknown.” True to form, no major book has released receiving props on Allen as of publish time.
“As far as these player incentives are concerned, we’re totally aware and the props team is totally aware,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “We’ll do our normal projections and then we’ll slightly shade based on what those incentives are and as the money comes in.”
Some incentives are harder to nail down and can even conceivably affect team performance. Miami Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb has a number of individual stats incentives on the line, but many of them are tied to the Dolphins finishing top 20 in points allowed… and they sit at 21st going into Week 18.
Avello also says his team won’t make adjustments for a player that stands to make money off of a marginal stat increase, such as Carolina Panthers RB Rico Dowdle needing seven scrimmage yards to hit an incentive, or one playing in a truly meaningful game, such as Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold.
“Yeah, he has incentives to get there, but in a game like this,” said Avello, “would it be any more incentive than to win this game and to get the number one seed and to win the division?”
David Purdum: Nikola Jokic went from the favorite to off the board in the odds to win the NBA’s regular-season MVP, after suffering a hyperextended left knee in Monday’s game against the Miami Heat.
The Denver Nuggets announced Tuesday that Jokic will be re-evaluated in four weeks, meaning he could miss approximately 15-16 games. In order to qualify for the MVP award, players cannot miss more than 17 games. (Jokic has played in every game this season).
On Monday, Jokic was the MVP favorite at +105 at DraftKings. The sportsbook removed him from the MVP betting options after his injury. Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now the favorite at -450.
Jokic is the latest and biggest blow to the injury-depleted Nuggets, who are now down four starters. Denver, which has been playing without starters Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Cam Johnson, is third in the Western Conference, behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
Jeff Sherman, a veteran NBA oddsmaker in Las Vegas, said if the Nuggets were only missing Jokic, he’d have them around 10th in his Western Conference power ratings. “They should be getting others back during [Jokic’s] absence,” Sherman of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas told ESPN. “I have to see something out of them first, but, interchangeably, yes, they are currently in the mix at the bottom … almost a replica of the [Indiana] Pacers.”
The Indiana Pacers, at 6-27, have the worst record in the NBA.