play0:56Windhorst: LeBron’s career is defined by greatness over longevityBrian Windhorst discusses what makes LeBron James so great on the day of his 41st birthday.
play1:43Spurs beat Thunder for third straight timeSpurs impress again vs. the Thunder as they take down the defending champs on the road.
Tim BontempsCloseTim BontempsESPN Senior WriterTim Bontemps is a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com who covers the league and what’s impacting it on and off the court, including trade deadline intel, expansion and his MVP Straw Polls. You can find Tim alongside Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on The Hoop Collective podcast.Follow on XBrian WindhorstCloseBrian WindhorstESPN Senior WriterESPN.com NBA writer since 2010 Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years Author of two booksFollow on XJan 2, 2026, 08:36 AM ET
Perk: LeBron, Lakers relationship has run its course (2:07)Kendrick Perkins explains why he thinks LeBron James isn’t feeling the Lakers’ situation anymore. (2:07)
Windhorst: LeBron’s career is defined by greatness over longevityBrian Windhorst discusses what makes LeBron James so great on the day of his 41st birthday.
Spurs beat Thunder for third straight timeSpurs impress again vs. the Thunder as they take down the defending champs on the road.
Potential uproar over anti-tanking and award-eligibility rules
Wembanyama and the Spurs’ rise into the league’s elite
How trade season could impact the free agency frenzy
During 2025, the NBA gave us the shocking Luka Doncic trade in February, the Dallas Mavericks beating 1.8% draft lottery odds in May, a historic Oklahoma City Thunder title in June and a first half of a 2025-26 season filled with the emergence of new stars and contenders on the court, and major scandals off it.
How many wins will the Thunder rack up in their pursuit of back-to-back titles, and can their newest rivals from San Antonio deny a dynasty? Where are trade sagas headed for the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis, and could each spill over into the offseason?
What’s next for potential league expansion — domestic and overseas — as commissioner Adam Silver continues to make his mark on the future of the NBA? Which rule changes could be on the horizon?
Those are just some of the storylines that coaches, executives and scouts around the league will be watching closely this year. Let’s break down the 10 biggest, starting in Los Angeles, where one of the league’s most storied franchises and its all-time great player are headed for a crossroads.
Brian Windhorst: At the start of the season, Los Angeles Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka tried to be as respectful as possible when dealing with the delicate matter of LeBron James’ future.
It’s no one’s fault, but there is an inherent problem for the Lakers. James, who turned 41 on Tuesday, is 15 years older than Doncic. The superstars’ timelines do not match, and as this season has shown, playing together does not make the Lakers a championship contender in their current form. This was a byproduct of the Doncic trade falling into their laps last season. They had to do it, despite the inefficient immediate fit.
Windhorst: LeBron’s career is defined by greatness over longevity
Brian Windhorst discusses what makes LeBron James so great on the day of his 41st birthday.
“LeBron is still averaging 20 points and shooting 50%. He can help a team win,” one head coach said. “You just have to find the right situation.”
But where? Would James want to uproot his life? Would his health hold up? Can the respectful end be achieved as Pelinka and the league office would much prefer? And what would the Lakers do with the financial flexibility if James’ $53 million salary fell off their books?
Tim Bontemps: This was one of the big stories of 2025 — and 2024, 2023 and 2022 … you get the idea — but 2026 feels like the year the Giannis saga reaches its inflection point.
“The rubber is going to finally hit the road, ” a Western Conference executive said, “one way or the other.”
Antetokounmpo continues to say he isn’t interested in discussing a future outside of Milwaukee at the moment. And some league insiders we spoke to agree with that prudent approach.
“If he waits until the summer [to ask out],” one Eastern Conference scout said, “he’ll have maximum leverage on what his future will be.”
Sources have reiterated that Milwaukee will spend this trade season focusing on improving the roster around Antetokounmpo before the Feb. 5 deadline. With Antetokounmpo being the consensus top player in a wide-open conference — the Bucks are just five games behind the fourth-seeded Toronto Raptors — the franchise still sees an opening for a playoff run. “They aren’t trading him in-season,” a West scout said.
But as long as Milwaukee continues to struggle, and until the trade deadline passes, all eyes around the league will be glued to the Bucks to see if that stance changes.
Windhorst: “In 2026, I look forward to seeing what the league’s overreaction to its overreaction is,” a veteran East executive said.
He was poking fun but also expressing the continued annoyance at the upheaval the 2023 collective bargaining agreement has wrought on the league. Hoping to foster competitive balance, new rules aimed at restricting team building for high-spending clubs have resulted in numerous intended and unintended consequences.
As for 2026’s biggest potential change, the executive pointed to owners’ recent discussions surrounding stricter anti-tanking rules. Like with the NBA’s competitive balance, the league has achieved little regarding this challenge for years.
And it has become more than bottom-dwelling teams maneuvering for franchise-changing players at the top of the draft. In recent years, teams have been tanking to ensure they keep protected picks in the top six, eight or 10, the rights to which were often traded years before.
The deep 2026 draft class is exacerbating the situation, creating an outcry for new anti-tanking measures.
“This is only going to get louder,” another East executive said. “By the spring, I think one out of every three games we’re going to play is going to be against a team that’s tanking.”
The 65-game rule is also a topic of discussion as the league prepares for potential drama regarding end-of-season award races. James, who has been named to a league-record 21 consecutive All-NBA teams, is on the verge of being ineligible after missing the first several weeks because of a back issue.
Nikola Jokic, who has finished first or second in MVP voting each of the past five years, could be ineligible, too, depending on how long he’s sidelined because of a hyperextended left knee. Antetokounmpo is butting up against the missed-games limit, and so is Victor Wembanyama, who could miss out on a second straight Defensive Player of the Year award because of it.
If the number of superstars ineligible for awards continues to rise, expect calls for change to grow louder despite the rule delivering the league’s intended outcome.
“They’re bringing the culture back that I like,” a second East executive said. “Some people might think it’s corny, but I love it when [Wembanyama] goes crazy when Chet [Holmgren] misses a free throw. They’re really going all in on rivalry and competitiveness. They will be fighting it out with Oklahoma City for the next few years.”
Beyond Wembanyama’s greatness, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle has taken a giant leap. Dylan Harper has immediately contributed as a rookie. The young duo and De’Aaron Fox are playing off each other nicely. Center Luke Kornet has been a great free agent signing. Keldon Johnson is playing the best basketball of his career as the team’s longest-tenured player and emotional leader.
Spurs impress again vs. the Thunder as they take down the defending champs on the road.
No one — including the Spurs — expected this quick of an ascent. Some believed the Spurs could push for a top-six seed in the West, but they did not project San Antonio entering a new calendar year No. 2 in the West with three wins over the Thunder in 12 days.
The question now becomes whether the Spurs can rip through the playoffs without prior heartbreak, which is typically needed on the path to Finals contention, and take down the defending champs this spring.
“Have they made themselves a legitimate threat to OKC? Recent events say so,” a West scout said. “I need to see it sustained a little bit. I need more than a couple months, but it’s certainly trending in that direction.”
Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg, who turned 19 on Dec. 21, has lived up to the hype, showing off the skills and poise that go beyond his age and experience level. This is not to downplay the 2025 draft class, but Flagg is undoubtedly looking like a future cornerstone of the league.
Though the possible transactions and who might make them — the Mavs are operating with co-interim GMs Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley — could create plenty of intrigue, the real story is Flagg’s growth potential.
Even instantly impactful teenagers over the years — such as James, Doncic, Wembanyama and Kevin Durant — took time to put their stamp on the league. None, for example, led their teams to the playoffs in their first two seasons. The expectations for Flagg, especially with the Mavs potentially retrofitting their roster, will likely remain measured. But that doesn’t mean he won’t draw a ton of attention in 2026.
Bontemps: The NBA has been defined by dynasties. That’s why the league-record seven consecutive seasons without a back-to-back champion has been so bizarre.
The Thunder, even after their recent swoon against the Spurs, are on pace for close to 70 wins after amassing 68 in 2024-25. OKC’s plus-14.2 net rating, 1.5 points better than last season, would shatter the NBA record. The Thunder are enjoying this success despite a rotating cast surrounding MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because of injuries. All-NBA forward Jalen Williams is still rounding into form after missing the first month because of offseason wrist surgery.