play2:43How Liam Coen has elevated Trevor Lawrence this seasonTrevor Lawrence details how first-year head coach Liam Coen has catapulted the Jaguars to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
play0:37Big man TD! Tommy Togiai turns Colts’ turnover into TDThe Colts’ failed trick play turns into a scoop-and-score as the Texans win it 38-30.
Charbonnet: It’s great to be able to rely on our defense (1:56)Zach Charbonnet joins Scott Van Pelt to break down the Seahawks defense’s standout performance in their win over the 49ers. (1:56)
How Liam Coen has elevated Trevor Lawrence this seasonTrevor Lawrence details how first-year head coach Liam Coen has catapulted the Jaguars to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Trevor Lawrence details how first-year head coach Liam Coen has catapulted the Jaguars to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Big man TD! Tommy Togiai turns Colts’ turnover into TDThe Colts’ failed trick play turns into a scoop-and-score as the Texans win it 38-30.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) or Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Here’s what each of the 13 current playoff teams need to do to reach the Super Bowl, which will be played Sunday, Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Our NFL Nation team reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for each team, and analytics writer Seth Walder identified a key stat to know for each club. Then Ben Solak gave his heat check rating (from 1 to 10) for each playoff squad.
Reason for hope: The defense is championship caliber. Mike Macdonald’s unit is allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL this season and has held nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per carry and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 26 straight games despite facing a recent gauntlet of tailbacks that includes Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams (twice) and Christian McCaffrey (also twice).
Reason for concern: Seattle turns the ball over way too frequently. Its 28 giveaways (which includes two on defense via fumbles on interception returns) are the second most in the NFL. Quarterback Sam Darnold leads all players with 20 giveaways (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). The Seahawks also tend to start slowly on offense. While they’ve overcome those issues against lesser teams, it will be harder to do in the playoffs. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Seahawks’ rushing defense allowed minus-30 first downs over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff and describes the suffocating nature of Seattle’s run defense. To put that number in context: The next-best team in the category is Houston, at minus-15. — Walder
Heat check rating: 9. Beating a divisional rival on the road to secure the 1-seed is a tone-setting victory, especially considering the narratives around Darnold’s performances in clutch games. It’s a wide-open NFC playoff field, but it runs through Seattle. — Solak
First game outlook: The Seahawks will host the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round on either Saturday, Jan. 17 or Sunday, Jan. 18. That would either be the No. 4-seeded Panthers, the No. 5 Rams, No. 6 49ers or No. 7 Packers. Seattle spilt its season series with both the Rams and 49ers, defeated the Panthers 27-10 in Week 17 and did not play the Packers this season. — ESPN
Reason for concern: The opposite can be said of a Bears defense that has surrendered 1,313 yards since Week 16. Chicago ranked 31st in pass rush win rate entering Week 18, which led to only four sacks in its final three games. The Bears are built on takeaways, with a league-high 33 (led by an NFL-high 23 interceptions), but the defense is overmatched when it’s not forcing turnovers. Playing bend-don’t-break football in the postseason is a dangerous proposition. — Courtney Cronin
Heat check rating: 7. Chicago is healthier on defense than it has been for much of the season, and while the Bears have lost a couple of games to NFC playoff teams, their spectacular late-game wins keep hope alive until the clock reaches triple zeros. — Solak
First game outlook: The Bears will host the 7-seeded Packers during wild-card weekend. Chicago and Green Bay spilt their two regular-season meetings, with the Bears’ 22-16 overtime victory in Week 16 giving them the necessary cushion for an NFC North title. — ESPN
Reason for concern: An inconsistent offense. The offensive line has regressed and the playcalling has been spotty, two contributing factors in the decline of a once-exceptional running game led by Saquon Barkley. The lack of success on the ground has created tougher sledding for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has had standout moments but also stretches of unproductive play. The output has not matched the overall talent for much of the season. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Eagles ranked second in EPA allowed per dropback, despite ranking only 21st in pass rush win rate. It’s a testament to how good their secondary has been, with cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean leading the way. Mitchell allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap entering Week 18, seventh best among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps, along with minus-13 EPA allowed when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Heat check rating: 4. The last time we saw Hurts and the starters, the offense couldn’t complete a second-half pass in a near-disastrous collapse against the Bills. The defense is good, but is it good enough to endure these offensive valleys through January? — Solak
First game outlook: The Eagles will host the 6-seeded 49ers during wild-card weekend. The teams haven’t met since Week 13 of the 2023 season, a 42-19 San Francisco win in Philadelphia that helped send the teams in opposite directions that season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: QB Bryce Young. Despite his inconsistencies, Young has shown he has enough to keep the Panthers in games even when he’s not playing his best. Yes, he has good offensive talent around him and an improved defense has played a role. But when Young plays well and doesn’t commit turnovers, Carolina can play with anybody, as shown in wins against the Rams and Packers.
Stat to know: The Panthers have a minus-8% pass rate over expectation, second lowest in the NFL. Their extreme run tendency made sense earlier in the season, considering they were much more efficient on the ground as the passing attack was struggling. But from Week 11 on, the passing game has been much better, though Carolina maintained high run rates relative to expectation. The question moving forward: Which Young will the Panthers get, and will they be willing to rely on him more? — Walder
Heat check rating: 3. Never a good feeling to lose your way into the playoff — but since this is the Panthers’ first divisional title since 2015, one can only lament the circumstances so much. The Panthers will get to play the “nobody believes in us” card and face a Rams team they’ve already beaten in Charlotte once before. — Solak
First game outlook: The Panthers will host the Rams during wild-card weekend. Carolina upset the Rams 31-28 when the teams played in Week 13 and is 1-0 against them in the playoffs, beating the then-St. Louis Rams in double overtime of the 2003 NFC divisional playoffs. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Matthew Stafford has played at an MVP level for most of the season. The Rams’ offense has been more consistent this season, led by Stafford. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in 10 games. Stafford has 4,707 passing yards and an NFL-leading 46 touchdowns and looks poised to lead the Rams on a deep playoff run.
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Rams ranked in the top three in rates of play-action (35%), designed rollouts (12%), motion at the snap (48%) and max protection (14%). Those are all valuable levers for McVay to pull, which help with pass protection or overall passing efficiency — or both. No doubt Stafford and wide receiver Puka Nacua have had unbelievable seasons. But those schematic tools are contributing factors to the Rams’ success, too. — Walder
Heat check rating: 5. The Rams went 2-3 in their last five meaningful games, and the defense showed more gaps in December than it did previously. Hopefully, the return of wide receiver Davante Adams and nickel Quentin Lake brings the team back to its totally dominant ways … but there’s reasonable concern in Los Angeles entering the Rams’ road path to the Super Bowl. — Solak
First game outlook: The Rams will play at the 4-seeded Panthers in the wild-card round. Los Angeles is looking for its first road playoff victory since beating the Buccaneers in the 2021 NFC divisional playoffs en route to a Super Bowl LVI championship. — ESPN
First game outlook: The 49ers will play at the 3-seeded Eagles in the wild-card round. San Francisco has split two previous playoff matchups with the Eagles, the most recent a 31-7 loss to Philadelphia in the 2022 NFC Championship Game. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The Packers have gotten elite-level quarterback play — from Jordan Love and Malik Willis — most of the season. Love was as high as third in some MVP odds late in the season and his numbers were better than Sam Darnold’s, the third of the three NFC Pro Bowl quarterbacks, before Love’s Week 16 concussion against the Bears. Willis might be one of the best — if not the best — backup quarterbacks in the game right now.
Stat to know: The Packers entered Sunday ranked second in EPA per dropback. And similarly, Love ranks second in QBR. It has almost gone under the radar just how efficient a passing offense the Packers have — in part because they are a run-leaning team. So while Green Bay’s Super Bowl hopes were certainly diminished after Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury, the Packers are one of the very best at the most important facet of football: passing offense. — Walder
Heat check rating: 2. The Packers lost their last three meaningful regular-season games, they won’t have Parsons for their playoff run, and the fan base is more concerned with Love’s contract vs. Willis’ quality backup play than anything else. Bad vibes. — Solak