Connelly breaks down Miami-Ole Miss, Oregon-Indiana

Bill ConnellyJan 7, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X

play0:41Chambliss escapes multiple defenders with a big 1st-down throwOle Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss scrambles away from multiple defenders and somehow finds Kewan Lacy for a first down.

Joey Galloway: Miami looks like a team that can win it all (1:53)Joey Galloway joins “Get Up” to break down Miami’s win over Ohio State. (1:53)

Chambliss escapes multiple defenders with a big 1st-down throwOle Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss scrambles away from multiple defenders and somehow finds Kewan Lacy for a first down.

Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss scrambles away from multiple defenders and somehow finds Kewan Lacy for a first down.

The College Football Playoff semifinals will kick off in Arizona on Thursday evening with the first Miami-Ole Miss game since 1951. The most dominant player in the CFP thus far (Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr.) will chase Ole Miss’ incredible Trinidad Chambliss around, and the Hurricanes will attempt to counter the Rebels’ speed with good, old-fashioned manpower.

The next day in Atlanta, national title favorite Indiana will pit its ridiculously experienced roster — and its chip-on-his-shoulder coach — against the young energy and blue-chip roster of Oregon for the second time this season. Can the Hoosiers maintain their perch with a season sweep of the Ducks?

New blood can be a spectacular thing in college football. Let’s find out who best takes advantage of an incredible opportunity. Here’s everything you need to follow in this week’s CFP semifinals.

1. DE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (2 games, 10 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 16 pressures, 2 run stops). Sixteen pressures! In two games! Bain has been unreal for the Hurricanes, especially in the early going of each contest. He’ll face a unique challenge in trying to corral the No. 2 player on this list. But to say the least, Bain has been up for all challenges thus far.

2. QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (2 games, 53-for-75 passing, 644 yards, 3 TDs, 8.5 yards per dropback, 91.5 Total QBR, 57 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs). The only time the transfer from Division II Ferris State really blinked all season was in the fourth quarter at Georgia in the regular season. He atoned with a brilliant performance in the Rebels’ quarterfinal upset of the Bulldogs, and his reward is a shot at a repeat national title (counting last year’s run with Ferris State).

3. QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (1 game, 14-for-16 passing, 192 yards, 3 TDs, 8.7 yards per dropback, 96.7 Total QBR, 38 non-sack rushing yards). Granted, Mendoza didn’t have to do just a ton: His Hoosiers made short work of Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal, and he was able to spend the last few minutes of the game on the bench. But completing 88% of your passes and rushing for three first downs is a pretty good way to prove your Heisman Trophy-winning bona fides.

4. RB Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (2 games, 38 touches, 287 yards, 1 TD). Fletcher was nearly the only successful offensive player in Miami’s gutsy first-round win over Texas A&M, and he followed that up by grinding out 90 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown against Ohio State’s dynamite defense. Through two games, he has generated far more yards from scrimmage than anyone else in the semifinals.

5. LB Suntarine Perkins, Ole Miss (2 games, 12 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 4 run stops, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries). As prominent as Bain has been, Perkins has matched him from a playmaking perspective. Perkins made at least two tackles for loss in each of his first two games and also forced and recovered fumbles in each outing. Ridiculous.

6. DE Akheem Mesidor, Miami (2 games, 12 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 11 pressures). Bain’s dominance has been made even more unfair by the large periods of time in each Miami game in which he wasn’t even the Hurricanes’ best pass rusher. The veteran Mesidor has been brilliant, as well.

7. NB Devan Boykin, Indiana (1 game, 7 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 pressure). The versatile safety can be deployed in countless ways, and his role against Alabama was one of frequent backfield disruption. He was great at it.

8. RG Bray Lynch, Indiana (zero blown blocks in 66 snaps). Center Pat Coogan was named the Rose Bowl’s offensive MVP as a nod to how dominant the Hoosiers’ front was against Alabama. But we’re giving Lynch a shoutout here: The two-year starter was statistically perfect against the Crimson Tide.

9. NB Keionte Scott, Miami (2 games, 12 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks, 5 pressures, 1 run stop, 1 forced fumble, a 72-yard pick-six). It’s almost a surprise that Mesidor and Bain left any plays for anyone else on Miami’s defense. But Scott has done a little of everything out of the slot corner role, and his first-half interception for a score against Ohio State was an absolute game-changer.

11. OLB Teitum Tuioti, Oregon (2 games, 8 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 6 pressures, 2 run stops). Oregon has had one brilliant offensive game and one brilliant defensive game in the CFP, and no one has really stood out twice. But when the defense needed a big play in either game, Tuioti probably made it. His two sacks and three pressures against Texas Tech set the tone for Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton’s nightmare day.

12. CB Brandon Finney Jr., Oregon (2 games, 9 tackles, 0.5 TFLs, 1 run stop, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery). Finney didn’t do a ton against James Madison, but the freshman was a turnover maker against Texas Tech, setting up one scoring opportunity with an interception, creating another with a fumble recovery and snuffing out any hope the Red Raiders had with an end zone pick early in the fourth quarter.

13. RBs Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby, Indiana (1 game, 34 touches, 199 yards, 2 TDs). Yes, the offensive line was incredible against Bama, but so was this running back duo. They did the bulk of their damage (72 yards from scrimmage) as the Hoosiers were taking control of the game in the second quarter, and they both scored fourth-quarter touchdowns that shifted the game from “comfortable win” to “absolute blowout.”

16. QB Dante Moore, Oregon (2 games, 45-for-60 passing, 547 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs, 8.5 yards per dropback, 82.5 Total QBR, 15 non-sack rushing yards and 1 TD). Maybe the hardest player to grade on this list because of the three picks. Completing 75% of your passes in the CFP — despite one game coming against a brilliant Texas Tech defense — is awesome, but the mistakes have to end in Atlanta.

18. WR Malik Benson, Oregon (2 games, 10 catches, 170 yards, 2 TDs). Moore’s receiving corps has been battered by injuries this season, but Benson has been an underrated stalwart. He torched James Madison for 119 yards and two scores, and he was an early tone-setter against Texas Tech with five first-half catches.

19. DE Mikail Kamara, Indiana (1 game, 3 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 4 pressures). Against Alabama, the veteran recorded his first two-TFL game since Week 2; and in the plays with Kamara’s four pressures, the Tide’s combined yardage was minus-1.

20. LT Markel Bell, Miami. The Canes’ ability to run efficiently against two stellar defenses has defined their playoff run to date, and they’ve been by far their most efficient hitting the run gaps on either side of the 6-foot-9, 345-pound senior. Bell has allowed a few pressures against two dynamite pass rushes, but Miami is here because of its ground game.

Ole Miss got ditched by its coach immediately before landing its first College Football Playoff bid. Miami seemingly got ditched by the CFP committee after a wholly mediocre October stretch that included timid late play and losses to Louisville and SMU. It is impossible to overstate how incredible it is that one of these two will be playing for the national title in a couple of weeks.

Pete Golding is ticking off boxes on the Fisher checklist. Since taking over for Lane Kiffin, who left for LSU before the start of the playoff, Golding has led the Rebels to their first two CFP wins and a revenge victory over Georgia.

The Kiffin-as-villain story has made the Rebels pretty easy to root for. But so has their quarterback.

The transfer portal is frequently framed as a pox on college sports, especially when combined with the effects of still-liberal NIL rules. Kids aren’t loyal anymore! They don’t tough things out! It has made coaches’ jobs impossible! That latter part is definitely true, and it has certainly resulted in some players getting lost in the shuffle after taking some bad guidance. But it also has created stories such as that of Trinidad Chambliss.

Ole Miss has underdog magic and interim magic on its side. We’ll see if that’s enough to counter another powerful force: nostalgia.

I didn’t realize the sight of Michael Irvin being overwhelmingly happy and emotional on the sideline would make me emotional too, but here we are.

When Ole Miss has possession, seven of the 22 guys listed above will be on the field at the same time. It will be the hottest defense in the playoff against the highest-ranked remaining offense (Ole Miss is second in offensive SP+).

The physical Miami offense has given the defense good field position to work with, and Corey Hetherman’s unit has taken it from there. The Hurricanes’ efficiency against the run isn’t great — they’ve allowed a 42.6% rushing success rate* in the CFP, highest of the semifinalists — but their success all season has been predicated entirely on preventing big plays and eventually teeing off on the quarterback.

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.)

Chambliss escapes multiple defenders with a big 1st-down throw

Again, the Hurricanes have played against excellent defenses, so this makes sense. But for the season, they’re only 42nd in rushing success rate, and they have by far the least explosive offense of any of the remaining semifinalists.

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