Bradford DoolittleCloseBradford DoolittleESPN Staff WriterMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013David SchoenfieldCloseDavid SchoenfieldESPN Senior WriterCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Jan 7, 2026, 04:50 PM ET
Jays make another splash by signing Japanese 3B Okamoto
Red Sox solve first base, acquire Contreras from Cardinals
Mets sign Weaver, adding another ex-Yankees reliever
Phillies sign two-time All-Star Garcia for outfield
D-backs, Kelly reunite after midseason trade to Texas
Tigers sign Kenley Jansen for reliever’s 17th season
Red Sox make another rotation add in trade with Pirates
Blue Jays sign Korean League MVP Ponce for rotation
Blue Jays make first big pitching splash with Cease signing
Orioles deal former top prospect for Halos power bat
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Jump to biggest deals: Imai to HOU | Murakami to CHW | Alonso to BAL Schwarber to PHI | Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR
The Cubs’ rotation before this deal was more good than dynamic, a description that could change with the addition of the talented Cabrera. With health and further fine-tuning in the command department, Cabrera retains top-of-the-rotation upside. The ultimate verdict on this deal will depend on how much of that upside is realized in Chicago. If Cabrera is a Game 1 or 2 postseason starter over the next couple of Octobers, we’ll have our answer.
That is if Cabrera can stay healthy, a caveat that applies to all pitchers but is particularly relevant to Cabrera, who has been placed on the IL nine times as a big leaguer and at least once in each of his five seasons. He’s gone on the shelf with elbow/bicep issues, blisters, a sprained ankle and, most notably, the shoulder problems that clipped his 2024 season.
That eventuality would suggest a happier context for this move. For now, the mark is held back by Cabrera’s injury risk and the quality of the players Chicago sent out. The assessment changes if the Cubs use that payroll flexibility and, for once, behave as the financial juggernaut they ought to be.
Durability concerns aside, Cabrera’s impact over three controllable seasons merited a solid return. As Miami angles to solidify a wild-card push in 2026, the sooner that acquired impact arrives, the better. This deal nicely balances getting a fair return for a valuable pitcher with making an immediate upgrade to the big league roster.
While Cabrera slotted in at the top of the Marlins’ prospective 2026 rotation, Miami was dealing from a position of strength. The rotation, as it stands, will be fronted by Eury Perez and a hopefully resurgent Sandy Alcantara. Ryan Weathers is a steady No. 3/No. 4 starter and the unit will be welcoming injury returnee Braxton Garrett back into the fold. The loss of ceiling in dealing Cabrera is compensated for by the presence of top near-ready prospects like Robby Snelling and Thomas White.
Caissie profiles as an above-average regular, especially if his play matches the success the Marlins had in finishing off the development of his likely corner outfield counterpart in Miami, Kyle Stowers. Like Caissie, Stowers was a touted lefty-hitting outfield prospect for another organization, Baltimore in his case, seeking the runway of an every-day big league opportunity. Stowers broke out last season for Miami with a 149 OPS+, earning his first All-Star nod.
If Caissie follows a similar path, he’ll join Stowers and Jakob Marsee in giving the Marlins a young and exciting long-term outfield. Hernandez, who ranked No. 8 on Kiley McDaniel’s final Cubs top 10 prospect list, and DeLeon have promise as well and even out the valuations in the deal from a Miami perspective.
For now, we’ll assume that the addition of Okamoto means the subtraction of Bichette. Mostly this stems from the Blue Jays’ proximity to the $304 million CBT threshold, the highest one also popularly known as the “Cohen tax.” While Toronto is likely in a period of revenue increases thanks to last year’s great season, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays flying far enough beyond the Cohen line to meet Bichette’s contract requirements.
The roster fit works fine, as the Blue Jays have a number of productive players with plus defensive skills who can be deployed at multiple positions. Okamoto should primarily hold down the third-base spot, but he has played a lot of first base as well while bouncing to the outfield from time to time. Toronto has a few guys (George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., among others) who require DH time, so the less time Okamoto has to spend in that role, the better.
If the Blue Jays are moving on from Bichette, that’s good news for his other suitors. As for the Jays, as big of a part as Bichette played in creating the tremendous culture the club enjoyed during its near-title run, there are enough returnees to keep the good vibes going. But it also means a direct comparison between Bichette and Okamoto from an offensive standpoint is the barometer for whether or not the signing makes Toronto better on the field.
The baselines are close. According to ClayDavenport.com’s translations, Okamoto’s adjusted line for the past five seasons reads as .265/.337/.442. Bichette, whose MLB numbers require no such translation, is at .292/.335/.460 during that span. Okamoto is older — he turns 30 at the end of next June — but he put up career-best percentages for Yomiuri last season in an injury-shortened campaign and now gets to work with bat-speed guru David Popkins in Toronto.
Either way, the Blue Jays continue to demonstrate their intent to take that crucial final step toward a championship next fall. — Doolittle
The Astros made the first transaction splash of the new year, agreeing to a deal with Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai one day before his posting window would have closed. Imai’s free agency generated precious few concrete rumors, and while Imai fills a rotation need for Houston, the dollar amounts involved make this at least a mild surprise. It also almost certainly closes the door on a possible return for longtime Astros lefty Framber Valdez.
Imai projects as a midrotation starter in the majors, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. For context, McDaniel writes, “think an ERA in the mid-3.00s,” which is actually a little better than Imai’s translated statistics from Nippon Professional Baseball’s Pacific League (3.88 ERA over the past two seasons, per ClayDavenport.com) and his initial projections in the Steamer system at FanGraphs (4.29 ERA/4.22 FIP).
That record of durability and consistency, combined with Houston’s organizational track record in working with acquired pitchers, make this a relatively low-risk move with a good bit of upside given Imai’s league-best strikeout totals over the past couple of seasons. Though undersized (5-foot-11), Imai’s four-seamer “sits at 93-97 mph and hits 99,” McDaniel writes, and his arsenal includes above-average splitters and sliders.
The Miami Marlins were a much-improved club in 2025, jumping from 62 wins the season before to 79. They harbored nontrivial wild-card probabilities into August before a soft finish over the last few weeks of the season. Nevertheless, Miami’s pitching staff enjoyed sustained periods of excellence despite injuries and the fallout from injuries (i.e., Sandy Alcantara) in the rotation, providing a glimpse of the run prevention potential that’s been building up in South Florida.
The Rays declined the $11 million club option they held on his deal for 2026, and while that’s the Tampa Bay way, it’s still less than a resounding vote of confidence in Fairbanks’ immediate future. Nevertheless, he is a clear and meaningful upgrade to Miami’s bullpen mix.
If Fairbanks succeeds, he will either bolster the Marlins’ playoff hopes, or he will be a sought-after trade target in July. If he doesn’t succeed, well, at least the Marlins tried.
The story is similar to that in Pittsburgh: An organization long criticized for its spendthrift ways finds itself with a surfeit of quality young pitching, needing only a few key roster upgrades in order to be injected into the 2026 NL playoff conversation.
The Marlins’ path to that status is shorter than that of the quasi-aggressive Pirates, but it’s still a hard road on the NL playoff landscape. From a forecasting standpoint, they will continue to lag behind the Braves, Mets and Phillies just in their own division. Forecasts aren’t destiny, but they still have to view that last NL wild-card slot — a slot for which they will have plenty of competition — as their most likely opening to the October bracket.
The Fairbanks signing is a start. Now they need to attack the lineup holes, and they need to figure out how much, if any, pitching surplus (i.e., Sandy Alcantara) they can afford to dangle in the trade market to attack that need. For now, this signing reveals some signs of life emanating from Little Havana. Let’s not stop here. — Doolittle
If you’re a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, you’re starting to dream a little bit. Over the past week, the frustrating team that seemingly never does anything during the transaction season has now made a couple of clear win-now moves. Suddenly, your anticipation for the 2026 season can include a set of expectations that factors in playoff contention.
Granted, some of this renewed optimism stems from baseball’s increasingly unwieldy playoff format — but with the addition of Ryan O’Hearn, Pittsburgh is moving well into the territory of mediocrity that, in 2026, can mean the playoffs. This is no small feat. Between O’Hearn and recently acquired infielder Brandon Lowe, Pittsburgh increasingly has a bona fide major league lineup to back up its exciting pitching staff.