play2:02Did Aaron Rodgers turn back the clock in win over Ravens?Dan Orlovsky, Damien Woody and Rex Ryan discuss Aaron Rodgers’ key performance in the Steelers’ win over the Ravens.
play1:42Why Matthew Stafford is Kurt Warner’s pick for NFL MVPKurt Warner joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to detail why Matthew Stafford is most deserving of league MVP.
play1:31Stephen A. to Josh Allen: ‘It’s your time’Stephen A. Smith explains why Josh Allen is the quarterback under the most pressure to perform in the playoffs.
Why Saturday isn’t having Bills, Josh Allen winning Super Bowl (0:45)Jeff Saturday details why he believes the Bills’ defense will hinder Josh Allen’s chances at a Super Bowl win. (0:45)
Did Aaron Rodgers turn back the clock in win over Ravens?Dan Orlovsky, Damien Woody and Rex Ryan discuss Aaron Rodgers’ key performance in the Steelers’ win over the Ravens.
Dan Orlovsky, Damien Woody and Rex Ryan discuss Aaron Rodgers’ key performance in the Steelers’ win over the Ravens.
Damien Woody, Dan Orlovsky and Rex Ryan discuss why the Bears could run into trouble in their wild-card matchup with the Packers.
Dan Orlovsky and Rex Ryan break down the concerns they have for Bo Nix and the Broncos heading into the playoffs.
Why Matthew Stafford is Kurt Warner’s pick for NFL MVPKurt Warner joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to detail why Matthew Stafford is most deserving of league MVP.
Kurt Warner joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to detail why Matthew Stafford is most deserving of league MVP.
Stephen A. to Josh Allen: ‘It’s your time’Stephen A. Smith explains why Josh Allen is the quarterback under the most pressure to perform in the playoffs.
Stephen A. Smith explains why Josh Allen is the quarterback under the most pressure to perform in the playoffs.
(7) Los Angeles Chargers at (2) New England Patriots
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Here’s a good example of why this is a flatter postseason than usual. Since the league moved to the 14-team playoff format, the seventh seeds have collectively been slaughtered. They’ve gone 1-9 while losing by an average of nearly 11 points per contest. The only 7-seed to win even a single game is the 2023 Packers, who were then dismissed by the 49ers in the divisional round.
There’s a bit of a “movable force versus resistible object” thing happening here for the Patriots on defense. Their weakness all season has been in the red zone, where they have allowed opposing teams to score touchdowns nearly 68% of the time, the third-worst rate in the NFL. The problem for the Chargers is that they’ve also been a mess in the red zone, where they’ve converted only 47.4% of their trips into touchdowns.
But the Chargers are a completely different offense without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Slater has missed the entire season because of a ruptured patellar tendon. The Chargers have still been third in the NFL in EPA per play with Alt (ankle) on the field, but they have been 26th without him. Missing Hampton for much of that stretch didn’t help, but the offense has been disjointed and struggled to find an identity for most of the year.
Drake Maye’s ability to attack downfield is the way to beat this Chargers defense, as C.J. Stroud showed with his first-quarter outburst two weeks ago. Maye led the league in Total QBR on deep passes, and while the Chargers were the fourth-best pass defense by EPA per play against short and intermediate passes, that fell to 16th when teams attacked them with deep balls.
This would be a matchup of the best offense at throwing to either sideline by QBR (New England) against the best defense at stopping those throws (Los Angeles). Top Chargers cornerback Donte Jackson is expected to play after leaving L.A.’s Week 18 loss to the Broncos with an injury, but I think Maye hits a couple of deep shots to earn his first career playoff victory.
This is the game of the weekend for me, as we’ll get Josh Allen with a week of rest for his ailing foot against Trevor Lawrence in the best form of his career. Lawrence’s 85.0 Total QBR over the past five games is second in the NFL behind Maye; Lawrence is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt over that span while throwing 15 touchdown passes against just one interception.
Can Lawrence sustain that through the postseason? I’m not sure. We’re not that far removed from a four-turnover game against the Cardinals in Week 12, and Lawrence had 13 interceptions and five fumbles this season. I also go back to 2022, when Lawrence posted a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the final 10 games of the season, then threw five picks in two postseason games against the Chargers and Chiefs.
The Jaguars are a heavy zone coverage team, though, and Allen’s 71.7 QBR against zone this season is the second-best mark in the league. The Jaguars have been a much better defense against teams that go lighter than against teams that use multiple tight ends, and the Bills are going to bring Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes onto the field to try to manipulate Jacksonville’s personnel and limit its exotic pressure looks. The Bills win in a shootout.
The Texans come into the postseason as the NFL’s hottest team, having responded to their 2-4 start by winning 10 of the ensuing 11 games, including nine straight to end the 2025 season. They’re third in EPA per play on defense, and their physicality is a scary match for a Steelers team that doesn’t often stretch opposing defenses downfield. Aaron Rodgers was able to consistently move the ball downfield on Sunday night only after the Ravens lost star safety Kyle Hamilton to a concussion.
The Steelers have a distinct formula for winning. Does it match up well against the Texans? Let’s see.
We know that Rodgers wants to get the ball out quickly, which could help mitigate the impact of the fearsome Texans pass rush. Derek Stingley Jr. & Co. form an excellent secondary, but the Texans aren’t as effective when the ball comes out within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Houston is 13th in EPA per defensive snap on those quick passes and the league’s best defense afterward. Rodgers’ average pass comes out after 2.6 seconds, the quickest rate for anyone in the league.
Did Aaron Rodgers turn back the clock in win over Ravens?
The Steelers lean into bigger personnel groupings by using a sixth offensive lineman and multi-tight end sets. Rodgers also loves throwing to his backs, particularly Kenneth Gainwell, who was named team MVP for his work during the regular season. The Texans are third in QBR on throws to running backs, but they do suffer when teams go bigger. They fall from being the best defense in QBR against when opponents use no or one tight end to 16th when they face multi-tight end sets.
Mike Tomlin’s teams thrive by winning the turnover battle and relying on their defense to hand the offense a short field or two from takeaways. Here’s where I would be worried for the Steelers: C.J. Stroud is excellent at protecting the football, and the Texans turn the ball over on just under 6% of their drives, the best giveaway rate in the NFL this season. When the Steelers don’t force turnovers, they’re a league-average defense by points allowed per possession.
The Steelers are fifth in win probability added on special teams, but the Texans are second. I don’t think there’s a huge advantage to be had for the Steelers here.
And unfortunately, while we just saw the Steelers win what unexpectedly turned into a late-game shootout with the Ravens, we know that their paths to victory have been narrower than those of the Texans. These teams are flawed up front, and I would expect a conservative game driven by the two pass rushes. But the Steelers are the more likely of these two teams to make a fatal mistake.
It’s the Packers’ third postseason in a row as the seventh seed, and it’s a third game between these two teams this season. The Packers came within an onside kick of sweeping their division rivals, but the Bears also came within a last-minute interception of getting the sweep themselves.
Despite the gap in seeding, this is also another matchup in which the lower seed is favored. The Packers are 1.5-point favorites even though they are traveling to Chicago this weekend. ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Packers as the NFL’s fifth-best team, while the Bears are 15th. DVOA ranks the Packers 11th and the Bears 16th, just behind the Ravens and Chiefs.
The Packers, unfortunately for Chicago, turn the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, as just 7.8% of their drives end with a giveaway. The Bears forced one turnover from the Packers in each of their games, but Green Bay scored 28 in the first game. In the second, the Packers drove inside the 10-yard line four times in the first three quarters and came away with just three points, something the Bears can’t count on again in the rubber match.
We saw Bears quarterback Caleb Williams hit what might have been the throw of the year to win the second game against the Packers in overtime, but he has been inconsistent and has a high off-target rate. He should have something close to a full complement of playmakers, but I don’t know if the Bears can stop the Packers on defense. This should be another fun one, but I expect the Packers to win the decider.
We don’t have to imagine what it would take for the Panthers to upset the Rams, of course. But looking back at that Week 13 game, what happened? And what are the chances that it happens again?
Rico Dowdle and the Carolina ground game did run the ball effectively, turning 40 carries into 161 yards. We’ve seen Carolina run the ball well at times, and the potential to get guard Robert Hunt (biceps) back for this game would theoretically be a boon against one of the league’s best defensive fronts.
It’s difficult to imagine the Panthers overcoming the Rams if they get outrun again this time around, and it’s tough to find a path to that performance from Week 13 happening a second time.
The Broncos were 10th in EPA per play on defense before those season-ending games against second- and third-stringers. They were 27th over the four-game stretch between their mid-November bye and the 34-20 loss against the Jaguars, and while Trevor Lawrence is playing great football, that run included games against Marcus Mariota and the combination of Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett.