Jan. 9: NFL playoffs begin with historically large spread, two nail-biters
Jan. 8: Hoosiers-Ducks winner to be favorite in national title game
Jan. 7: Ahead of wild-card weekend, sportsbooks are already offering Super Bowl ATD markets
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
The playoff road to Super Bowl LX opens with several intriguing point spreads, though for opposite reasons.
The festivities kick off on Saturday with the Los Angeles Rams coming in as enormous 10.5-point road favorites against the Carolina Panthers, per DraftKings odds. Should that number hold, it would be the largest favorite spread for a road playoff team in the Super Bowl era. At a minimum, it’s likely poised to tie the record of -10 held by the New Orleans Saints for their 2010-11 wild-card game against the Seattle Seahawks.
All the same, sportsbooks and bettors alike have confidence in Los Angeles. DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that the Rams, the book’s highest power rated team, are only not a Super Bowl favorite because of their less-favorable path to the Super Bowl than the No. 1-seeded and championship favorite Seahawks.
L.A. is, predictably, forming the basis for many money-line parlays this weekend, but their large favorite spread is also getting attention from bettors, garnering the majority of tickets and handle at BetMGM and theScore Bet.
First, the Green Bay Packers will go on the road for a rivalry clash with the Chicago Bears, coming into the contest as 1.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings odds. However, that number has fluctuated greatly since the open across the sportsbook marketplace. Some books, including DraftKings, opened with Chicago favored — and some still have them in that role, such as HardRock Bet. The action has been just as undulating.
“This looks like a game where we’re going to continue to take action based on who we’re making the favorite. If we’re making one team the favorite, then the bettors are going to jump to the dog. That’s what’s happened so far,” said Avello. “This game’s going to write a lot of money.”
To those points, the Bears have attracted the most wagers at DraftKings, theScore Bet and BetMGM, with the latter also confirming this is currently its most-bet game overall.
In the same vein, Sunday’s early contest between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars sees the visiting Bills as 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings — though some books, like Circa and the SuperBook in Las Vegas, are making the game a pick ’em.
The action on the side has been very even across the sportsbook marketplace, with Avello calling it “the one game that we’re seeing the most balance on.” To that end, DraftKings reports an exact 50-50 percentage split in bets, while BetMGM reports a 51-49 split in handle slightly favoring Buffalo.
But the market bettors are really targeting here is the total at 51.5, per DraftKings odds, the highest of the first round. theScore Bet reports the over in that market as its most bet total of the weekend by tickets and Avello remarked “seeing nothing but over money” early on, but the total has still dropped a point from its high of 52.5.
Early lines on potential championship game matchups have Indiana or Oregon favored over either the Miami Hurricanes or Ole Miss Rebels. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Indiana as a 5.5-point favorite over Miami and an 8.5-point favorite over Ole Miss. Oregon is listed as a 1.5-point favorite over Miami and a 4.5-point favorite over Ole Miss.
First, Miami needs to get past the underdog Rebels on Thursday in Glendale, Arizona. The Hurricanes are 3-point favorites over the Rebels. In the other semifinal, Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite over Oregon on Friday in Atlanta.
The action is more lopsided in the second semifinal, with greater than 80% of bets on the Hoosiers to cover the spread against the Ducks at multiple sportsbooks.
DraftKings and FanDuel are offering markets on anytime touchdown scorer for Super Bowl LX. Seattle Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet is the leader in the market at +450, followed by his teammates RB Kenneth Walker III and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, then Los Angeles Rams WR Davante Adams at +500, according to DraftKings odds. Denver Broncos RB RJ Harvey (+550), Rams RB Kyren Williams (+550) and Rams WR Puka Nacua round out the top options.
Clearly, the odds are mostly a reflection on those teams’ likelihood of getting to the championship game: the Seahawks (+330), Rams (+425) and Broncos (+650) are the current odds leaders to win the big game.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that this could be a good way for bettors to get value now if they truly believe a certain team could end up in the Super Bowl. To that end, FanDuel reports that Charbonnet and Smith-Njigba have been two of the most popular bets thus far in the market.
But the one name very much standing out is Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (10-1), who has the second-most action at FanDuel and the most at DraftKings. In general, the latter is seeing some more longshots getting attention, with Bills RB James Cook III (10-1), San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (20-1), as well as Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (22-1) and RB Saquon Barkley (11-1) comprising the top-five most-bet.
Overall, the sportsbooks are not seeing a ton of action in the market just yet, but Avello sees it as more of a tool to get bettors into the playoff spirit.
Nationally, bettors are divided on the Hurricanes and Rebels. At DraftKings, approximately 56% of bets on the outright winner between Ole Miss and Miami were on the Hurricanes as of Thursday morning. BetMGM was reporting similar even money-line action on Thursday’s game. However, at Hard Rock Bet, the only licensed sportsbook in Florida, a larger majority of bettors are unsurprisingly backing the Hurricanes, as 70% of the money that has been wagered on Thursday’s winner was on Miami, Hard Rock Bet reported.