How effective Trevor Lawrence is with play action (4:14)Dan Orlovsky uses StatusPro Visualizer and NFL NGS Data to explain Trevor Lawrence’s success with play action. (4:14)
The wild-card round for the 2025 NFL playoffs has four more great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Sunday brings a QB duel between the Bills’ Josh Allen and Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Christian McCaffrey and the Niners visiting Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, and the Chargers traveling cross-country to face Patriots QB Drake Maye. Monday caps the slate with a pesky Texans defense facing Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers.
Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the full wild-card slate.
Stat to know: The Jaguars have a 67.8% pass block win rate, which ranks ninth best but is by far the best for a Jaguars team with QB Trevor Lawrence under center. A part of that solution? Cole Van Lanen, who took over at LT in Week 13 and has a 92% pass block win rate, which is 22nd best at the position and an upgrade over Walker Little. — Walder
Bold prediction: Bills WR Gabe Davis, who played for the Jags in 2024, will score a touchdown in his revenge game. The Bills use Davis as a short-yardage and red zone threat because of his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame. If they can’t run the ball in and need to drop back, Davis will be Allen’s preferred target. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Bills CB Taron Johnson. His ability to get to depth in Buffalo’s foundational zone coverages is key versus a Jaguars passing game that features deep in-breaking concepts. Here, Johnson can close the intermediate windows, which will limit Lawrence’s explosive play ability. — Bowen
One bet to consider: UNDER 51.5. Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and has a run-heavy offense. The Jaguars’ offense is efficient but not fast. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s crew threw the fewest flags per game this season (12.9). That could help the Jaguars, who were the NFL’s third-most penalized team (9.3 per game). The Bills were tied for the sixth fewest at 6.8 per game. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20 Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Bills 27 Solak’s pick: Jaguars 23, Bills 21 Walder’s pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 30 FPI prediction: JAX, 51.5% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Secret sauce to Bills beating the Jaguars? A big key is the O-line … How Jaguars QB Lawrence’s grill gift came to be … Jaguars clinch AFC South, turn sights toward playoffs
Tomlin to Eisen: We’re excited to have DK Metcalf back
Stat to know: Since Week 7 — the week after LB Fred Warner’s ankle injury — the 49ers are allowing opponents a 47% success rate on designed runs (third highest). Though the Eagles haven’t been nearly as successful on the ground this season as they were in 2024, San Francisco’s defense could present the opportunity for RB Saquon Barkley to have a big game. — Walder
Bold prediction: Niners DE Bryce Huff will get a key sack. Huff is the 49ers’ best shot at edge pressure, and he has a quick first step that can challenge Eagles LT Jordan Mailata. Huff has been struggling mightily of late, but expect an impassioned performance here. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Eagles S Reed Blankenship. He will be asked to play a two-way role in the secondary, limiting the middle-of-the-field targets in the 49ers’ route tree while also filling the alleys to cut off RB Christian McCaffrey in the run game. Blankenship had 53 solo tackles and one interception this season. — Bowen
One bet to consider: 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Eagles allow a league-low passing touchdown rate. And Fangio defenses historically suppress red zone passing efficiency, supporting Purdy’s under. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The 49ers were the second-least-penalized team in the NFL (six per game), but they’re tied for the most flags for unnecessary roughness (10). Overall, referee Alan Eck’s crew threw the NFL’s second-fewest flags per game this season (13). — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 20 Moody’s pick: 49ers 20, Eagles 17 Solak’s pick: 49ers 24, Eagles 17 Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Eagles 28 FPI prediction: PHI, 55.4% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the NFL’s best QB room got 49ers back to playoffs … What drives the Eagles defense? Meatballs … Injured 49ers LB Bethune to miss playoffs
What we’re hearing on the Chargers: QB Justin Herbert has been playing through a fractured left hand since Week 13, but he said this week that his hand feels the best it has since the injury. Herbert and other key starters rested in Week 18, a decision he said proved beneficial. “I’d say definitely not taking hits on it last week was probably pretty helpful,” he said. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Patriots’ average of 8.7 air yards per attempt ranks as the second most in the NFL. But that makes for an interesting matchup against the Chargers’ defense, which allows opponents just 5.0 air yards per attempt (third lowest). Los Angeles achieves that by being the most two-high-heavy (57%) defense and the league’s most zone-heavy defense (70%). — Walder
Bold prediction: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton will shine on 20-plus carries and 100-plus yards against a poor Patriots run defense, especially if DT Khyiris Tonga (foot) can’t go. The Chargers need to run the ball to protect their offensive line and control pace, and Hampton has looked good since returning from his ankle injury. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Patriots TE Hunter Henry. His ability to uncover and work the seams gives the Patriots an edge in the red zone. Henry has five red zone touchdown receptions this season, including two in his past three games. He should be a priority target for Maye. — Bowen
One bet to consider: Patriots -3.5. New England is top five in point differential, points per drive on offense and defensive points allowed per drive. Since Week 10, the Chargers’ offense ranks bottom three in yards per play, success rate, explosive play rate and points per drive. That gap supports the margin. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: Patriots CB Carlton Davis III was flagged six times for defensive pass interference, second most in the regular season. But the Chargers haven’t been great at drawing pass interference and have had only four called against their opponents, second lowest. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Patriots 24, Chargers 17 Moody’s pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 24 Solak’s pick: Patriots 20, Chargers 14 Walder’s pick: Patriots 26, Chargers 23 FPI prediction: NE, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Mack stayed in L.A.; inside his relationship with Tuipulotu … Barnwell weighs in on Maye’s MVP candidacy … Herbert taking snaps, says rest helped hand
Bold prediction: The Steelers will get shut out in the first half. There’s so much hype for the Texans’ pass rush, but it’s the secondary’s ability to create turnovers and minimize YAC that will lead to quick three-and-outs in this one. Houston can sustain long drives to control the clock, too. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Anderson. He can play a difference-making role, setting an edge to limit the Steelers’ outside zone run game, while also creating chaos as a pass rusher to disrupt Rodgers’ rhythm. — Bowen
One bet to consider: Texans -3. The Texans allow the second-lowest points per drive and force the most field goals per drive. Pittsburgh can score only with short fields, so the cleaner defense will cover in this game. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The outcome of this game could depend on whether the Steelers can keep the Texans’ pass rush off Rodgers. But he has helped the Steelers avoid harmful holding penalties by getting the ball out quick. They were flagged only 14 times for it, tied for the second fewest this season. — Seifert
Maldonado’s pick: Texans 23, Steelers 20 Moody’s pick: Texans 21, Steelers 17 Solak’s pick: Texans 24, Steelers 13 Walder’s pick: Texans 19, Steelers 16 FPI prediction: HOU, 54.7% (by an average of 1.7 points)
What we’re hearing on the Panthers: As big as this game is for QB Bryce Young, it’s bigger for the running game that had 19 yards last week and only 99 the week before. Carolina needs the balance it had in its Week 13 win over the Rams, in which the Panthers ran 40 times for 164 yards. That opened it up for Young, who had three TD passes — including two on fourth-and-short. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Rams rank second in run block win rate (74.1%), while the Panthers are 32nd in run stop win rate (26.2%) and 26th in EPA allowed per designed run. It all sets up for a game where the Rams won’t have to take as many risks because they should have success on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. But they will be without Kevin Dotson (ankle injury), who ranks 24th out of 62 qualifying guards in run block win rate. — Walder
Bold prediction: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan will go off for 100-plus yards in his first career postseason game. McMillan had only one catch for 43 yards in the first contest against the Rams as the Panthers ran the ball a ton. But on a trailing script in this game, he’ll shine. — Solak
Matchup X factor: Panthers WR Jalen Coker. He has a touchdown catch in three of his past five games, including one in Carolina’s win over the Rams. If the Panthers are going to upset L.A., Coker will have to create explosive plays as a boundary target for Young. — Bowen
One bet to consider: OVER 46.5. The over cashes if Carolina scores early and forces a competitive game. The Rams can score 30-plus, while any early Panthers success prevents L.A. coach Sean McVay from slowing the tempo. — Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Rams have been one of the NFL’s least penalized teams over the past six seasons, and in 2025 they committed the fewest in the league (5.5 per game). Referee Clete Blakeman’s crew threw an average of 14.4 flags per game. — Seifert