Zach KramJan 12, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseZach Kram is a national NBA writer for ESPN.com, specializing in short- and long-term trends across the league’s analytics landscape. He previously worked at The Ringer covering the NBA and MLB. You can follow Zach on X via @zachkram.
Why Stephen A. doesn’t think much of Wizards’ trade for Trae Young (1:14)Stephen A. Smith reacts to the Hawks trading Trae Young to the Wizards. (1:14)
The trade value for superstars continues to rise. Still, NBA front offices might be reassessing this form of inflation, even as stars such as Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially become available.
Such deals are a relatively new phenomenon in the NBA. Other than the Brooklyn Nets’ memorable trade for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in 2013, typical superstar swaps involved a couple of picks at most. But that changed in 11 days in 2019, when Anthony Davis, Paul George and Russell Westbrook all moved for massive hauls. In every year since, at least one blockbuster trade has been completed that involved four or more first-round picks and swaps.
That flurry provides enough of a sample to analyze the outcomes, to see if going all in for a player is worth it, or if teams are correct to back away from such excessive spending. Let’s assess each one of these blockbuster trades from recent history, and we’ll provide some broader lessons at the end.
Note: Only key players and picks are included in this list; second-round picks and players primarily added to match salaries are not.
Nets traded: 2014 first-round pick (landed at No. 17) 2016 first-round pick (landed at No. 3) 2017 swap rights (swapped No. 1 for No. 27) 2018 first-round pick (landed at No. 8)
Under former owner Mikhail Prokhorov, the Nets went all-in for a group of veterans, finished with a 44-38 record and reached the second round of the playoffs. They then stopped spending on the aging, expensive core they had assembled. Pierce left Brooklyn in free agency after one season, and Garnett was traded half a season later.
In acquiring Pierce and Garnett, Brooklyn gave up future picks that the Celtics turned into Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum (after the Celtics landed the No. 1 pick in 2017 before trading down to No. 3). Since this trade, the Celtics have the second-most wins in the NBA, behind only the Golden State Warriors, while the Nets rank 24th.
Lakers traded: Brandon Ingram Lonzo Ball Josh Hart Rights to De’Andre Hunter (just picked No. 4) 2022 first-round pick (landed at No. 8) 2023 swap rights (not exercised) 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 25)
Any set of transactions that results in a championship is by definition successful; as Windhorst likes to say, “Winning a title means never having to say you’re sorry.”
So, even though the Lakers arguably underachieved during the Davis-LeBron James era — they advanced past the first round just once after their 2020 title in the Orlando bubble — this is an easy verdict to deliver. As a bonus, Luka Doncic wouldn’t be a Laker if Los Angeles hadn’t acquired Davis.
Clippers traded: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Danilo Gallinari 2021 first-round pick (via Miami, landed at No. 18) 2022 first-round pick (landed at No. 12) 2023 first-round pick (via Miami, landed at No. 18) 2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 26) 2025 swap rights (swapped No. 24 for No. 30) 2026 first-round pick
Meanwhile, despite trading so much to acquire George, the focus at the time was more on the picks; Gilgeous-Alexander, the No. 11 pick a year earlier, had averaged a respectable but unspectacular 10.8 points per game and made the All-Rookie second team.
Of course, Gilgeous-Alexander later blossomed into an MVP and a Finals MVP, and the No. 12 pick in 2022 was Jalen Williams, who developed into an All-NBA player by his third season. Though that latter part was outside the Clippers’ control — and this deal wouldn’t look quite so bad if the Thunder had taken Ousmane Dieng, whom they grabbed one spot ahead of Williams, at No. 12 instead — trading a future MVP makes this trade a major failure.
Rockets trade: Chris Paul 2021 swap rights (not exercised because of top-4 protection) 2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 12) 2025 swap rights (not exercised) 2026 first-round pick
Westbrook played well in his lone season in Houston, as the Rockets embraced a super-small-ball style that allowed James Harden and Westbrook to become one of the highest-scoring duos in NBA history — they combined for 61.5 points per game. But the Rockets were uncompetitive in a second-round loss to the Lakers in the bubble, and they flipped Westbrook for John Wall after the season.
Meanwhile, Paul still had plenty left in his tank, so the Thunder nabbed the best player and the picks in this deal, clearly winning the trade. But because the Rockets got lucky in the 2021 lottery by keeping their protected pick, and successfully rebuilt soon after, the best pick they ultimately surrendered from this deal was only the No. 12 selection in a weak draft. (Oklahoma City used it on Nikola Topic, who has yet to play an NBA game.) That’s not a terrible outcome.
Bucks traded: Eric Bledsoe Rights to R.J. Hampton (just picked No. 24) 2024 swap rights (swapped No. 21 for No. 23) 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 19) 2026 swap rights 2027 first-round pick
See the Windhorst rule: Winning a title, as Milwaukee did in Holiday’s first season in town, means never having to say you’re sorry. Holiday supplied the most clutch highlight of the Bucks’ Finals triumph, with his game-sealing strip and alley-oop assist in Game 5 against the Suns.
Nets traded: Jarrett Allen Caris LeVert Taurean Prince 2021 swap rights (not exercised) 2022 first-round pick (landed at No. 17) 2023 swap rights (not exercised) 2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 3) 2025 swap rights (later traded back to Brooklyn) 2026 first-round pick (later traded back to Brooklyn) 2027 swap rights
With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving already on the roster, the Nets added Harden to complete their Big Three. They were unsurprisingly dominant when all three stars shared the court, with a plus-16.9 net rating during the regular season and playoffs, per Cleaning the Glass.
But those moments were rare because of numerous injuries. With Irving out and Harden hobbled, Durant toed the 3-point line on his clutch jumper in Game 7 against Milwaukee in the 2021 playoffs. Instead of a series-winning 3-pointer that could have propelled the Nets to the title, Durant had only tied the score, and Milwaukee won in overtime to ruin Brooklyn’s best chance at a championship.
Hawks traded: 2023 first-round pick (via Hornets, didn’t convey because of protections) 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 14) 2026 swap rights 2027 first-round pick
The Hawks hoped Murray would help them recapture the magic that thrust Atlanta into the 2021 conference finals. However, the one-time All-Star’s defense regressed, and he never meshed with Trae Young; the Hawks were a play-in team in both of his seasons.
Atlanta salvaged much of this trade thanks to another deal two years later, though. In sending Murray to New Orleans, the Hawks received Dyson Daniels on the cusp of a breakout, the first-round pick that allowed them to acquire Kristaps Porzingis and a 2027 first.
Timberwolves traded: Malik Beasley Patrick Beverley Jarred Vanderbilt Rights to Walker Kessler (just picked No. 22) 2023 first-round pick (landed at No. 16) 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 21) 2026 swap rights 2027 first-round pick 2029 first-round pick (top-5 protection)
Minnesota hasn’t won a title since its shocking trade for the now-four-time Defensive Player of the Year. But a championship isn’t the only criterion for success, and Gobert has been a major contributor to the most successful era in franchise history — the Timberwolves have won twice as many playoff series in the past two seasons (four) as in all of their previous seasons combined (two).
Cavaliers traded: Lauri Markkanen Collin Sexton Rights to Ochai Agbaji (just picked No. 14) 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 29) 2026 swap rights 2027 first-round pick 2028 swap rights 2029 first-round pick
The Cavaliers gave up a lot to acquire Mitchell, and much of the return has yet to come due. This deal might look much worse in 2029 if Cleveland has surrendered a juicy pick or two in the interim.
But for now, the Cavaliers would likely make this trade again. Mitchell has been an All-Star in every season as a Cavalier, and last season, he became just the third player in franchise history — along with LeBron James and Mark Price — to make an All-NBA first team. Though the Cavaliers have yet to experience much playoff success with Mitchell, there’s still value in the regular season, and the 2024-25 Cavaliers won 64 games, the second most in team history.
Suns traded: Mikal Bridges Cam Johnson Jae Crowder 2023 first-round pick (landed at No. 21) 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 10, later traded back to Phoenix) 2027 first-round pick 2028 swap rights 2029 first-round pick
This trade would be a failure just from the Suns giving up five first-round picks and swaps. The fact that they also gave up Bridges and Johnson, only to watch Brooklyn trade them for first-round picks, makes this arguably the most expensive trade in NBA history.
And for all that investment, the Suns’ return was one playoff-series victory in three years with Durant.
Suns traded: Chris Paul 2024 swap rights (not exercised) 2026 swap rights 2028 swap rights 2030 swap rights
The Suns didn’t lose their pick in 2024, and they likely won’t in 2026, either. Depending on how the rest of the decade goes, the Suns might never give any draft capital to Washington.
Knicks traded: Bojan Bogdanovic 2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 26) 2025 first-round pick (via Bucks, landed at No. 19) 2027 first-round pick 2028 swap rights 2029 first-round pick 2031 first-round pick
It’s too early to judge the outcome of this trade, in which New York surrendered a considerable number of picks for a non-All-Star. But the measure of success appears fairly simple, looking forward. If this Knicks core never reaches the Finals, and if the front office can’t further improve the team because trading those picks for Bridges means, say, the Knicks don’t have the assets to complete a trade for a bigger star like Antetokounmpo, then this trade will be a failure.