Bradford DoolittleJan 12, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013
Why Michael Wilbon likes the Cubs signing Alex Bregman (1:53)Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser discuss what Alex Bregman signing with the Cubs means for Chicago and the Red Sox. (1:53)
The hot stove season is stuck in the middle. When we last checked in, the winter meetings in Orlando, Florida, were set to begin, and we figured that a month later the heavy lifting of the 2025-26 offseason would be complete.
Rather than the de facto winter wrap on each club we thought we might be doing, we’re looking at something more like midterm assessments. That’s fine, because it gives us a chance to note the areas that teams have attacked with their offseason work to date and highlight remaining weaknesses that should be addressed in the weeks to come.
When Stock Watch returns, we’ll be headed for spring training. At that point, the offseason transaction work will be mostly finished, right?
Progress report: The Dodgers’ offseason has consisted of nabbing a new closer in Edwin Diaz in free agency and then working the edges. Now you get the feeling they are sitting back, enjoying some fine cigars, coiled like a proverbial snake waiting to strike again when the time is right.
As it stands, L.A. projects to have the No. 2 offense and the top pitching staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen. The Dodgers also have the oldest position player group in the majors and could stand to mix in a little youth and athleticism. Both would be accomplished if Alex Freeland and Hyeseong Kim are ready to seize larger roles. Of course, they would also get a little younger and more athletic if they signed Kyle Tucker and found a taker for Teoscar Hernandez.
Progress report: The Braves have quieted down since mid-December after a torrid start to the offseason. The Braves would have projected to bounce back strong from last year’s debacle no matter what, but the reinforcements have the roster looking strong.
The offense looks like one of baseball’s best, with across-the-board skills. The Braves could use a righty-hitting, athletic outfielder to complete the puzzle. Harrison Bader would fit if Atlanta is willing to go even deeper into competitive balance tax (CBT) territory, but the Braves could use another starting pitcher as well. If it’s a choice between one or the other, the pitcher probably takes precedence.
Progress report: The Dodgers have put themselves on a higher tier than everyone else, but the Mariners are very much a part of a crowded group of second-tier teams that mostly consists of last year’s non-champion postseason teams. It has been a pretty quiet offseason for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, as he’s mostly positioned his team to run back last year’s group. That will especially be true if the Mariners end up bringing back Eugenio Suarez.
A lot of the optimism generated by Seattle’s outlook stems from positive regression for a rotation that can hope for better health in 2026. One low-key need for the Mariners is another lefty or two for the bullpen to help out Gabe Speier, as their righty-heavy staff leaves them short situationally against lefty hitters.
Progress report: The Blue Jays have not rested on the laurels from their 2025 pennant. Even after adding Kazuma Okamoto, Toronto remains in the rumor mill as a possible landing spot for the top remaining free agents, including franchise fixture Bo Bichette.
Of course Tucker would work well here, too, even as his salary would send the Blue Jays’ payroll further into the stratosphere. Whether it’s him, Bichette or Bellinger, you’d like to see Toronto add someone at that level, the money be damned, if only to keep one of them away from their chief competitors.
Overall, the Phillies’ offensive forecast is solid, but only the Dodgers have an older position group, and it’s not hard to see a lot of downside in the numbers. Getting J.T. Realmuto back at catcher is crucial, but that doesn’t help the age/ceiling issue. One player who would help those areas is 22-year-old burner Justin Crawford, if he can seize a golden opportunity in Philadelphia’s outfield mix.
Elsewhere, the rotation has too many walks in its forecast, but more pressing is a bullpen that looks mediocre at the bottom line, lacks dominance and is old. Not a great set of traits.
Progress report: Raising the ceiling of the rotation with the acquisition of Edward Cabrera was a potential impact move. The bullpen is kind of a gnarly combination of old and mediocre, but the floor of the group looks pretty high. The rotation is also old and has perhaps a few too many fly ball pitchers for those windy days at the Friendly Confines. But it’s a group with good collective command that should work well in tandem with Chicago’s excellent team defense.
The signing of Bregman has turbocharged a Cubs offseason that really picked up momentum over the past week. Because the preliminary version of this Stock Watch included numbers run before the Bregman deal, I can report this: Chicago’s outlook jumped by 1.3 wins in the simulations, their playoff odds went up by nearly 6% and the title odds went up by 1.1%. With the improvement, Chicago leapfrogged the Brewers as the current, way-too-early favorites in the NL Central.
It was a good enough weekend that you can almost forgive the Cubs for making headline news while the entire city of Chicago was vibrating with every play of Saturday night’s Bears-Packers game. Read the room, people!
Progress report: Craig Breslow has set the Red Sox up with one of the game’s best rotations. The depth chart goes six-deep with veterans, led by Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello, then adds the depth and upside of young hurlers Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Kyle Harrison. Only the Dodgers have a better park-neutral rotation ERA forecast and a higher projected dominance factor.
It feels like Boston is one key move from making it into that crowded second tier, putting the Red Sox on even footing with the Blue Jays and Yankees.
The offense could use a splash or two. Sure, Detroit has some high-level position prospects creeping up on the majors and you don’t want to block those opportunities, but there is plenty of space for a middle-of-the-lineup anchor. That’s true of both the depth chart and the payroll. Bellinger or Tucker would be the best fit, but Detroit could use any of the top available hitters.
Progress report: The bulk of the Astros’ offseason work has been on the rotation, where they signed Tatsuya Imai out of Japan, traded for ex-Pirate Mike Burrows and added Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) free agent Ryan Weiss. That trio joins Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. in what Houston has suggested might often be a six-man rotation.
Progress report: Other than swapping Nick Mears and Isaac Collins for former Royals lefty Angel Zerpa, it’s been mostly crickets from the Brewers this offseason. They haven’t gotten worse since December, but their numbers have fallen as teams around them have gotten better.
Progress report: The Orioles look poised to resume the title pursuit their contention window seemed to offer before the bottom fell out in 2025. Baltimore has enjoyed an aggressive, productive winter that’s given it a turbocharged, power-based offense that has a chance to be one of the game’s best.
Progress report: The Padres’ offseason hasn’t started as ice-cold as last winter, but it hasn’t been fiery, either. Bringing back Michael King to the rotation was essential, but beyond that, San Diego’s primary splash was the signing of KBO star Sung-mun Song.
Progress report: The Royals look strong in every facet of run prevention — rotation, bullpen, defense, the ability to attack all sorts of hitters. The offense is more middle of the pack with the same shortcoming (walk rate) the Royals have had for virtually their entire existence.
Progress report: The Rangers are going to have a different look next season. And let’s face it, the lackluster 2025 season called for a shake-up.
Progress report: The return of Merrill Kelly and the arrival of Michael Soroka give Arizona a coherent rotation that’s buoyed by the depth and upside of a slew of near-ready prospects currently slotted for Triple-A. It’s not a dominant group and will need the support of good defense, but luckily Arizona’s array of defenders is among baseball’s best.
The bullpen is much less coherent, ranking last in strikeout rate and dominance in the forecast. Maybe some of those aforementioned Triple-A pitchers can help.
The lineup looks just as productive and exciting as last season … provided Ketel Marte is still around. Given his team-friendly deal, why did his name keep coming up in the rumor mill? Guess it doesn’t hurt to ask.
Progress report: My primary critique of the Farhan Zaidi era in the Giants’ front office is that revenue-rich San Francisco didn’t really flex its economic might. The Giants haven’t started a season with a top-10 payroll since 2019. That might be changing under Buster Posey, but so far this winter, he has mostly worked the edges of the roster with short-term deals for rotation help, adding Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser.
Progress report: According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins currently project to have an Opening Day payroll under $100 million and a CBT calculation that is less than 50% of the first tax threshold ($244 million). There are television revenue issues, but, still, the Twin Cities make up a middle-sized market capable of supporting a better investment than what Minnesota fans have been getting.
This forecast is obviously almost right down the middle, because the Twins’ front office is adept at scouting and development. Thus, even with the payroll paring, there is a .500 baseline as a jumping-off point. With a little spending, the Twins would easily move into position to challenge Detroit, Kansas City and Cleveland in a winnable division. They might do it anyway, but it shouldn’t take threading a needle.