Why Michael Wilbon likes the Cubs signing Alex Bregman (1:53)Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser discuss what Alex Bregman signing with the Cubs means for Chicago and the Red Sox. (1:53)
Neither of the next two free agent classes features a hitter as attractive as Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger. The best of next winter: Nico Hoerner, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Lowe, Daulton Varsho, Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres. The top following the 2027 season: Jeremy Pena, William Contreras, Steven Kwan, Adley Rutschman, Isaac Paredes, Munetaka Murakami, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddie Freeman, who will be 38.
It is grim. And with the acquisition cost for trades enormous, it reinforces the leverage the remaining bats hold. Miss out on Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger, all of whom cost only cash, and the ability to recover could be severely mitigated absent breakout seasons from any of the above.
There is time, and it’s what teams are banking on to resolve their winters, but it’s ticking fast. Tucker is going to move soon. Bichette might not be far behind. And they’re the sort of signings that can take a team that needs to make a move and level it up to a winter winner.
Being the most active team doesn’t always connote the best. In the case of the Orioles, however, the magnitude of their changes significantly upgraded a roster in sore need of an overhaul. And considering they might not be done, they’re aiming to be the second consecutive American League East team to go from worst to first.
The acquisitions have come in almost every form. Big free agent signing? Check: Pete Alonso, five years for $155 million. Big trade? Check: Right-hander Shane Baz for a cadre of prospects. Bullpen help? Check: Signing Ryan Helsley (two years, $28 million) and reacquiring Andrew Kittredge. More starting depth? Check: Zach Eflin for a year at $10 million. More right-handed power? Check: Taylor Ward in a trade for Grayson Rodriguez.
The Orioles still lack a clear No. 1 starter — neither Kyle Bradish nor Trevor Rogers has pitched at that level consistently — and the back end of the bullpen is a crapshoot. Considering the misery of last season, though, president of baseball operations Mike Elias has filled the cupboard for new manager Craig Albernaz.
The Cubs thrust themselves definitively onto this list over the last week, locking up Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million contract days after acquiring right-hander Edward Cabrera from Miami. Prior to that, Chicago had spent its winter bargain hunting, signing four relief pitchers for around $30 million combined and bringing Tyler Austin back from Japan.
Between Tucker last year and Cabrera this year, the Cubs have chipped away significantly at their prospect depth. That’s the sort of thing teams trying to win don’t shy away from doing. And after losing to the Brewers again in the NL Central race as well as the division series, Chicago will carry its highest Opening Day payroll (currently around $225 million) — and perhaps even get over this year’s $244 million competitive-balance tax threshold.
Urgency is paramount in Toronto after the Blue Jays’ heartbreaking World Series loss to the Dodgers. In a free agent market where high-end pitching continues to linger, Toronto jumped it and guaranteed $210 million for seven years of Dylan Cease. The Jays didn’t stop there, adding Cody Ponce (three years, $30 million), Tyler Rogers (three years, $37 million) and Kazuma Okamoto (four years, $60 million).
And the Jays aren’t necessarily done. They’re firmly in the mix on Kyle Tucker and still the likeliest team to give him the big-money, long-term deal he’s seeking. They might get priced out of a Bichette return, but they haven’t closed the door on it.
The Dodgers haven’t done much. There’s no $700 million contract. And no array of deferral-laden deals. You win two World Series in a row, you return every meaningful player, you’re entitled to bask a little bit.
Through that prism, the Dodger’s three-year, $69 million poaching of closer Edwin Diaz from the New York Mets qualifies as a win. The Dodgers spent the entire postseason running starting pitchers out of their bullpen, so to get arguably the game’s best reliever registered as another coup in a yearslong campaign full of them.
Oh, the fun time that was had when I reported in mid-November that the Pirates were planning on spending this winter. There was skepticism. Cynicism, even. Because these are the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the last multiyear free agent contract they gave out was Ivan Nova — and that was a decade ago.
Fast forward two months. Pittsburgh traded for second baseman Brandon Lowe and signed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn (two years, $29 million). It got left-handed reliever Mason Montgomery in the Lowe deal and gave Gregory Soto $7.75 million for one year. The Pirates’ depth-for-depth trade with Boston landed them Jhostynxon Garcia, who they hope will be their password for winning.
The Pirates aren’t done, either, and while they aren’t flush enough to play in the Tucker-Bichette-Bellinger sandbox, they’re approaching a $100 million payroll for the first time. This is not necessarily a reason to celebrate — owner Bob Nutting needs to show a lot more than one active winter to reengage a fan base scarred by years of negligence — but at least it is one step in a direction with which Pittsburgh is eminently unfamiliar.
Hold on a second. First the Pirates, and now the White Sox? In a category for winners? This is not a troll. Two years after losing a record 121 games, in the midst of three consecutive 100-plus-loss seasons, the White Sox have managed to secure significant upside without a whole lot of downside this winter — a neat trick for any team but particularly one that is in the middle of a down-to-the-studs rebuild.
Tack on getting one of the best left-handed relievers on the market in Sean Newcomb and hoping to again strike gold on a two-year deal bringing a pitcher back from Asia (last time it was Erick Fedde, this time Anthony Kay) and the White Sox have turned a little more than $50 million into a high-ceiling endeavor with a reasonable floor. Even if the White Sox still have plenty of deficiencies, it’s very good team-building work by GM Chris Getz.
The Mets have added Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. They have subtracted Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Talent-wise, that is at best a push, and while the lingering feeling that the Mets needed to completely upend their clubhouse coming off their September collapse drove much of their decision-making, competing in the NL East will presumably take more additions.
Editor’s note: The Red Sox agreed to a five-year, $130 million deal with SP Ranger Suarez after this story published on Jan. 14.
Speaking of missing on guys they wanted, the Red Sox have become the new Blue Jays. Toronto’s perpetual runner-up status in free agency changed overnight with their World Series run, and considering the number of players they’ve targeted and fallen short on — in the past two years alone, Juan Soto, Max Fried, Alonso and Bregman stand out — the Red Sox need to do one of two things: win more or bid higher.
Now, it’s not as if the Red Sox have been entirely stagnant. Until they landed Suarez on Wednesday, they were the only team that had not signed a player to a major league deal, yes, but they did get Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo via trade. It’s not enough, though. Not in the AL East, let alone the entire landscape of the game.
Regardless of how interested owner John Henry is or isn’t in the Red Sox, he knows business, and it is generally not good business to alienate paying customers through degradation of product. If the season started today, the Red Sox would be a playoff contender, sure, but with Toronto and Baltimore improved and the Yankees the Yankees, is that enough?
Getting Bichette, who’s the obvious choice with Bregman gone and Ketel Marte off the trade market, would provide a huge boost. There are other pivots to make — Nico Hoerner, Brendan Donovan or Isaac Paredes, with the right-handed bats more appealing — but ultimately all that matters is: Do they have enough talent? There are far worse places to start than with Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony, but the answer, compared to their peers, is: No.
This is mostly a function of the Brewers carrying the best record in baseball last year and the expectation that doing so warrants an uncompromising follow-up to ensure it ends with gold rings rather than disappointment. Expecting that of the Brewers, of course, would be foolish. This is the team that leading into its 97-win season signed one free agent for $4.25 million.
Ultimately, the Brewers will sign someone who helps because that’s what they do. They work the margins, they hunt value, they make do. And whether it’s via trade or on one-year deals, they’ll hop back on the hamster wheel and leave everyone wondering what should’ve been.
The Phillies have seven impending free agents on their roster who make more than $80 million combined. Adding Bichette to a core of Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and the kids would be a pretty dandy way to start version 2.0 of the Harper-era Phillies.
With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, Major League Baseball’s free agent pool remains flush with talent. It’s not just the best position player available this winter, Kyle Tucker, or arguably the best pitcher, Framber Valdez, still trawling for a representative contract. There are big bats (Bo Bichette, Cody Bellinger), a front-of-the-rotation arm (Zac Gallen), power (Eugenio Suarez), veteran pitchers (Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito) and even an every-day catcher (J.T. Realmuto). Even the most inactive teams have time to salvage their winter.
Beyond Díaz and a low-dollar deal for Andy Ibanez, the Dodgers are exercising patience. They just don’t have to be proactive in markets they believe will come to them. Would they like Tucker? Sure. Anyone would. Will they chase him? Nope. Not unless it’s on a shorter-term deal. Same with any free agent, really, because the Dodgers are now at the point where players believe their best chance at a World Series ring runs through Los Angeles, and the calendar is starting to force them to consider options they might not have otherwise.
