Bill ConnellyJan 16, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play0:59Charlie Becker makes sensational leaping grab for an Indiana TDIndiana QB Fernando Mendoza lobs it to Charlie Becker in the end zone, who makes an incredible leaping catch for the score.
play0:34Carson Beck darts for go-ahead Miami TD with 18 seconds leftCarson Beck sprints to the end zone and puts Miami on top of Ole Miss with 18 seconds remaining.
play0:58Miami regains lead on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard TDMalachi Toney evades tackles on his way to a 36-yard touchdown to give Miami the lead back.
Where does Indiana stack up in CFB history? (2:12)Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum discuss how winning a national championship would seal Indiana’s spot in college football history. (2:12)
Charlie Becker makes sensational leaping grab for an Indiana TDIndiana QB Fernando Mendoza lobs it to Charlie Becker in the end zone, who makes an incredible leaping catch for the score.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza lobs it to Charlie Becker in the end zone, who makes an incredible leaping catch for the score.
Carson Beck darts for go-ahead Miami TD with 18 seconds leftCarson Beck sprints to the end zone and puts Miami on top of Ole Miss with 18 seconds remaining.
Miami regains lead on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard TDMalachi Toney evades tackles on his way to a 36-yard touchdown to give Miami the lead back.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning began the season as the least statistically proven Heisman favorite of all time and never came particularly close to (unreasonable) expectations. The sport’s most proven entities in a year of change were Clemson (preseason No. 4) and Penn State (No. 2); the Tigers began the season 1-3 and only ever rebounded so much, while the Nittany Lions lost six straight midseason games and fired head coach James Franklin.
Sure, defending national champion Ohio State spent most of the season ranked No. 1, but there was a steady undercurrent of uniqueness. Indiana — which began the season as the losingest major program in the history of college football — was the only team to get to 13-0. Texas Tech hadn’t won more than eight games in a season since 2009 but rode a brilliant transfer class to 12 wins and its first Big 12 title. Vanderbilt won 10 games for the first time.
(Even the smaller-school ranks dealt with usurpers and choppy waters. A seemingly untouchable North Dakota State team lost in the FCS round of 16, and the Bison’s conqueror, Illinois State, which had just a 0.3% chance of reaching the title game based on pregame projections, came within inches of the national title. In Division III, Wisconsin-River Falls, which suffered a losing season every year from 2001 to 2019, upset powerhouse North Central to win the crown.)
Now comes the payoff. In the last college football game of the season Monday night, preseason No. 10 Miami, which lost two of three in October to seemingly fall out of contention for a College Football Playoff bid, will face preseason No. 20 Indiana for the national title. The former began the season with national title betting odds of +3,000 (equivalent to 0.3%), while the latter was at +10,000 (0.1%).
Miami’s postseason path: def. No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3 in the CFP first round; def. No. 2 Ohio State 24-14 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic quarterfinal; def. No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl semifinal
Two years ago, the world was leaving Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes behind. With coordination from particularly rich boosters, the school had pushed out Manny Diaz in favor of Cristobal, the former Hurricanes offensive lineman who was a member of Miami’s 1989 and 1991 national championship teams and was featured in “The U” documentary.
The Hurricanes won their last four regular-season games by an average of 38-10 and just barely eked out a playoff bid. They had to take to the road from the start but beat Texas A&M in absurdly windy conditions in College Station, then beat defending national champ Ohio State with relentless defense and some beautifully physical play on offense. And in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, Beck guided them on a last-minute touchdown drive to survive a wild battle with Ole Miss.
Indiana’s postseason path: def. No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten championship game; def. Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential quarterfinal; def. Oregon 56-22 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl semifinal
Two years ago, Indiana was starting over yet again. After a semi-intriguing rise — including a 6-1 burst in the 2020 season during the COVID-19 pandemic that nearly resulted in a Big Ten championship game appearance — Tom Allen’s tenure ended like most do in Bloomington. Bill Lynch went 12-24 in his last three seasons on the job (2008-10), Gerry DiNardo went 9-27 (2002-04), Cam Cameron went 12-21 (1999-2001) and Bill Mallory went 11-22 (1994-96). Allen went 9-27 from 2021 to ’23 and left town.
I loved that the Hoosiers hired Curt Cignetti. He had won lots of games at different levels, turned an FCS underdog program (Elon) into an immediate playoff team and ushered in immediate FBS success at James Madison. He’s a unique guy with a unique amount of self-confidence — even in an alpha-heavy profession such as college football coaching — and I thought he was good enough that he might even be able to get the Hoosiers back to a bowl within a couple of years.
Let’s start our title game deep dive by laying out the matchups. Pitting head coach vs. head coach, quarterbacks vs. defensive coordinators, running backs vs. linebackers, receiving corps vs. secondaries and offensive lines vs. defensive lines, let’s tell the tale of the tape.
Cristobal deserves the utmost credit for the way he brought his team together and kept it unified when things began to unravel in October. The Hurricanes have rallied around a very specific, physical identity, and they’ve won three playoff games primarily by knowing themselves really well. That’s a massive plus. But in Cignetti, Cristobal is going up against a coach on an all-time heater. It’s impossible to render a verdict that isn’t in the Hoosiers’ favor here.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan) vs. Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman
With this timing, however, almost comes an opportunity for Miami: Mendoza has become so comfortable in his reads that he has also failed to read pressure quite as well of late. In the past three games, he has thrown well, but he has also taken seven sacks with a sack rate of 10.6% (national average in 2025: 5.8%) and a 31.8% sacks-to-pressures ratio (national average: 17.8%).
If you can get to Mendoza, you can get him down. And almost no one brings quarterbacks to the ground as well as Miami. The Hurricanes are fifth in pressure rate (41.7%) and 10th in sack rate (8.1%), and like Mendoza they have raised their game in this regard: Even after recording only one sack of Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss in the semis, their sack rate is 9.8% in the CFP. Hetherman hasn’t had to blitz much to generate that pressure either, thanks to the absurd work of Bain and Mesidor.
Miami’s defensive front, however, creates loads of negative plays. Bain and Mesidor have combined for 32 tackles for loss, 19 run stops, 19 sacks from 123 pressures, 5 forced fumbles and even an interception and 2 breakups. And in tackle Justin Scott (nine TFLs, 12 run stops), the Canes also have a disruptive presence in the middle. This is a stars-versus-stars matchup.
Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black can generally hit back. Indiana’s senior running back duo has combined for 25.3 carries per game with a dynamite 50.0% success rate*. The Hoosiers are 10th nationally in rushing success rate, and they’re first in standard downs** success rate.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is generating 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down and 100% on third or fourth.)
Charlie Becker makes sensational leaping grab for an Indiana TD
With Sarratt and Cooper healthy again, Becker and tight end Riley Nowakowski have given Indiana too many playmakers to account for.
Miami’s secondary is strong, but I’m not sure I’d pick against Indiana’s receiving corps in any matchup.
In four matchups here between the Indiana offense and Miami defense, I’m giving Indiana the edge in three, with one push. It’s vital that Miami’s dynamite defensive front plays its best game of the season for the Hurricanes to hold up.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck (and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson) vs. Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines
We can probably surmise that “Big, burly manball with an Air Raid route tree” was the vision when Cristobal hired former Dana Holgorsen protege Shannon Dawson as offensive coordinator. We saw a particularly incredible version of that vision in 2024, as physical running back Damien Martinez rushed for 1,000 yards while Cam Ward was winging the ball all over the field and making himself a top draft pick.
The 2025 edition hasn’t been as smooth to watch, resorting to lowest-common-denominator ball that focuses primarily on avoiding negative plays even if it means almost never creating big plays.
There’s not much margin for error in this style of ball, but while Beck’s numbers pale in comparison to Ward’s, he’s doing his job. And in the first genuine must-score drive of the postseason, Beck took his team 75 yards in 15 plays and scored the winning points with his legs.
Carson Beck darts for go-ahead Miami TD with 18 seconds left
Carson Beck sprints to the end zone and puts Miami on top of Ole Miss with 18 seconds remaining.
The Hoosiers do a beautiful job of containing opposing offenses, positioning themselves in a way that drives specific decisions from quarterbacks and pouncing on any mistakes. They also are almost disturbingly well prepared: In their past 11 games, they’ve picked off a pass on the first drive five times. That, of course, includes D’Angelo Ponds’ game-opening pick-six against Oregon in the semifinals.