Bradford DoolittleCloseBradford DoolittleESPN Staff WriterMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013David SchoenfieldCloseDavid SchoenfieldESPN Senior WriterCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Jan 16, 2026, 02:33 PM ET
What Kyle Tucker’s signing means for the Dodgers (1:28)Alden González breaks down the significance of Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million deal with the Dodgers. (1:28)
Mets pivot after missing out on Tucker, sign Bichette
Dodgers — again! — nab winter’s biggest free agent, agree to deal with Tucker
After missing out on Bregman, Red Sox pay for Suarez
Jays make another splash by signing Japanese 3B Okamoto
Red Sox solve first base, acquire Contreras from Cardinals
Mets sign Weaver, adding another ex-Yankees reliever
Phillies sign two-time All-Star Garcia for outfield
D-backs, Kelly reunite after midseason trade to Texas
Tigers sign Kenley Jansen for reliever’s 17th season
Red Sox make another rotation add in trade with Pirates
Blue Jays sign Korean League MVP Ponce for rotation
Blue Jays make first big pitching splash with Cease signing
Orioles deal former top prospect for Halos power bat
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Jump to biggest deals: Tucker to LAD | Bregman to CHC | Murakami to CHW Alonso to BAL | Schwarber to PHI | Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR
The replacements, following Friday’s signing, are Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Bichette. Those additions justify the following cherry-picked ranking of fWAR, during the 2020s, from players who have played at least 75 games at shortstop:
For the Mets, from left to right, that now looks like Bichette at third, Lindor at short, Semien at second and Polanco at first. Others will factor in of course, especially Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, but if the Mets were prioritizing infield defense this winter, consider it mission accomplished.
The addition of Tucker might or might not have improved the Mets’ offensive outlook from what it would be if Alonso had stayed. They are very different hitters of course, but from a percentage standpoint, Tucker is a better all-around producer. That is, when he plays — and here’s where the beauty of the Polar Bear will be missed: You can count on him being in the lineup.
With Bichette, you’re getting some of Tucker’s recent track record of injury issues and a similar offensive style, albeit from the right side of the plate. But the level of that style is a tier below both Tucker and Alonso in bottom-line production. Over the last five years, the OPS+ figures for the trio are ranked Tucker (145), Alonso (134) and Bichette (119). Bichette hasn’t had a single season with an OPS+ as high as Tucker’s five-year average.
Taken as a trio, the Mets’ old heart out-projects the offensive production of the new heart. According to Steamer’s context-neutral forecast, the Alonso-Nimmo-McNeil threesome lands at a 115 wRC+. The Bichette-Semien-Polanco group is at 112, while the same calculation with Tucker replacing Bichette is 117. Without Tucker OR Bichette, it’s 109, a number arrived at by subbing Vientos into Bichette’s role.
There hasn’t been much turnover in the Phillies’ pitching staff, especially the rotation. Yes, Ranger Suarez has departed for Fenway Park, but his likely replacement, Andrew Painter, has been around for a few years. For a team still trying to squeeze a title out of a closing window of contention, it’s good those pitchers will be throwing to a familiar face.
Realmuto’s return brings the Phillies back into the same territory in which they ended last season. They’ve shuffled the bullpen a little, but Philadelphia’s offseason is mostly defined by retaining Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber. Other moves have been on the margins, even adding outfielder Adolis Garcia who isn’t even a sure bet to hold off Nick Castellanos for a starting job. It’s the same team, an old team to begin with, and one that is now a year older.
The Dodgers are the perfect landing spot for Tucker, and they are the perfect team to shrug off any possible red flags. The end result is that baseball’s hegemonic monster looks even more dynastic than it did when the Dodgers won a second straight World Series, just 2½ months ago. (Let’s not forget that the Dodgers also already signed free agency’s top closer, Edwin Diaz, back in December.)
This is the latest, gut-punching example of the Dodgers putting their financial muscle to work, leveraging a capacity that right now no one else can match. Don’t blame the Dodgers — despise them if you must, but don’t blame them. This is the system that baseball has chosen to live by. (For now.) And the Dodgers are squeezing it for all its worth. Face it: If your team could do what the Dodgers have done and continue to do, you would be all aboard the Dynasty Express.
From a pure actuarial perspective, I don’t think Tucker will be worth $60 million per season. If we go with $10 million as the cost of a win in free agency these days, the simple math says Tucker would have to average six WAR per season for L.A. to break even on the deal. It’s way more complicated than that, but let’s go with that framework. Tucker, as good as he has been, has never had a six-WAR season.
Is Tucker a risk? Sure, but let’s be real: It’s the Dodgers. If it doesn’t work out, it will affect their future flexibility not one bit.
Besides, if the red flags I saw didn’t keep the team in blue from throwing Tucker so much green, who was I to worry? Not only are the Dodgers even better, but those in pursuit of Tucker’s services (the Mets, the Blue Jays, at the very least) are gnashing their teeth anew. And the teams pursuing the Dodgers — there are 29 of them — just watched L.A. pull even further away, rolling in a self-replicating money machine toward what looks like an unlimited horizon. — Doolittle
Ahh, lost in the dust of the Kyle Tucker deal was a good old-fashioned three-team trade. Of course, the Rays were involved. If you had to predict a team would engage in a three-way trade, it would be the Rays, since this is now their second three-team deal this offseason — so let’s start with them.
This is a bit of roster reshuffling for the Rays. After trading second baseman Brandon Lowe to the Pirates and acquiring outfielder Jacob Melton from the Astros (plus signing free agent center fielder Cedric Mullins), the Rays had a hole at second base and a surplus of outfielders, so they flipped Lowe for Lux. It’s a downgrade from Brandon Lowe to Lux, but Lux is arguably an upgrade over Josh Lowe, who struggled at the plate in 2025.
With Sal Stewart ready to play somewhere and Noelvi Marte now a full-time outfielder, Lux didn’t project to start for the Reds, so they swap his one year of team control of Lux for one year of the lefty reliever Burke, coming off a 3.36 ERA in 69 appearances with the Angels. He’s the third significant addition to the bullpen, after the Reds signed Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson as free agents.
Roster construction can often be a confounding thing to analyze. After not re-signing Alex Bregman, who went to the Cubs for five years and $175 million last weekend, the Boston Red Sox apparently took that money and gave it to left-handed starter Ranger Suarez. He’s a good pitcher. That’s also a lot of money for Ranger Suarez.
He has never made 30 starts in a season. He has never qualified for an ERA title by pitching 162 innings. But he also has a 3.25 ERA since 2021, which ranks 10th among pitchers with at least 600 innings. At $26 million per season, his contract is in line with pitchers with a similar ERA over that span who have signed free agent deals:
Blake Snell: 3.06 ERA, $31.3 million AAV, 2025-29 Kevin Gausman: 3.34 ERA, $22 million AAV, 2022-26 Nathan Eovaldi: 3.40 ERA, $25 million AAV, 2025-27 Carlos Rodon: 3.44 ERA, $27 million AAV, 2023-28 Luis Castillo: 3.52 ERA, $21.6 million AAV, 2023-27
Of course, that 3.25 ERA includes a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings in 2021 — and Suarez isn’t going to post a 1.36 ERA again. Take out 2021 and he has a 3.59 ERA since 2022, plus he lacks the Cy Young upside of Snell and the durability of Gausman (five straight seasons of 30 starts).
The concern is how long he can keep it going. Last season, 127 pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Twenty of them, including Suarez, featured fastballs that averaged less than 92 mph. That group combined for a 4.34 ERA. Not awful, but it points to how Suarez has been an outlier among this type of pitcher. That alone doesn’t mean he can’t keep it going for the next four or five years if he stays healthy, but if he loses even a little off his fastball, it could be a big issue.
That leaves the Red Sox the ability to make a trade for an infielder if they don’t want to entrust starting spots to both Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. They have Triston Casas with nowhere to play and still have four good outfielders. Red Sox fans have grumbled for the past year, from the Rafael Devers trade to not signing Bregman. The roster, however, looks like one that can win the division. — Schoenfield
When Arenado returned from the IL last September, he bemoaned to the St. Louis media that his injury woes had sapped his power, among other things, but most of those declines are now multiyear issues at this point. As a rambunctious player who has so freely thrown his body around over the years while building a reputation for playing through discomfort, the cumulative effect of it all might simply mean that Arenado’s body has passed a point of no return.