Bradford DoolittleCloseBradford DoolittleESPN Staff WriterMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013David SchoenfieldCloseDavid SchoenfieldESPN Senior WriterCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Jan 15, 2026, 11:13 PM ET
What Kyle Tucker’s signing means for the Dodgers (1:28)Alden González breaks down the significance of Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million deal with the Dodgers. (1:28)
Dodgers — again! — nab winter’s biggest free agent, agree to deal with Tucker
After missing out on Bregman, Red Sox pay for Suarez
Jays make another splash by signing Japanese 3B Okamoto
Red Sox solve first base, acquire Contreras from Cardinals
Mets sign Weaver, adding another ex-Yankees reliever
Phillies sign two-time All-Star Garcia for outfield
D-backs, Kelly reunite after midseason trade to Texas
Tigers sign Kenley Jansen for reliever’s 17th season
Red Sox make another rotation add in trade with Pirates
Blue Jays sign Korean League MVP Ponce for rotation
Blue Jays make first big pitching splash with Cease signing
Orioles deal former top prospect for Halos power bat
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Jump to biggest deals: Imai to HOU | Murakami to CHW | Alonso to BAL Schwarber to PHI | Diaz to LAD | Cease to TOR
The Dodgers are the perfect landing spot for Tucker, and they are the perfect team to shrug off any possible red flags. The end result is that baseball’s hegemonic monster looks even more dynastic than it did when the Dodgers won a second straight World Series, just 2½ months ago. (Let’s not forget that the Dodgers also already signed free agency’s top closer, Edwin Diaz, back in December.)
This is the latest, gut-punching example of the Dodgers putting their financial muscle to work, leveraging a capacity that right now no one else can match. Don’t blame the Dodgers — despise them if you must, but don’t blame them. This is the system that baseball has chosen to live by. (For now.) And the Dodgers are squeezing it for all its worth. Face it: If your team could do what the Dodgers have done and continue to do, you would be all aboard the Dynasty Express.
From a pure actuarial perspective, I don’t think Tucker will be worth $60 million per season. If we go with $10 million as the cost of a win in free agency these days, the simple math says Tucker would have to average six WAR per season for L.A. to break even on the deal. It’s way more complicated than that, but let’s go with that framework. Tucker, as good as he has been, has never had a six-WAR season.
Is Tucker a risk? Sure, but let’s be real: It’s the Dodgers. If it doesn’t work out, it will affect their future flexibility not one bit.
Besides, if the red flags I saw didn’t keep the team in blue from throwing Tucker so much green, who was I to worry? Not only are the Dodgers even better, but those in pursuit of Tucker’s services (the Mets, the Blue Jays, at the very least) are gnashing their teeth anew. And the teams pursuing the Dodgers — there are 29 of them — just watched L.A. pull even further away, rolling in a self-replicating money machine toward what looks like an unlimited horizon. — Doolittle
Ahh, lost in the dust of the Kyle Tucker signing was a good old-fashioned three-team trade. Of course, the Rays were involved. If you had to predict a team would engage in a three-way trade, it would be the Rays, since this is now their second three-team deal this offseason — so let’s start with them.
This is a bit of roster reshuffling for the Rays. After trading second baseman Brandon Lowe to the Pirates and acquiring outfielder Jacob Melton from the Astros (plus signing free agent center fielder Cedric Mullins), the Rays had a hole at second base and a surplus of outfielders, so they flipped Lowe for Lux. It’s a downgrade from Brandon Lowe to Lux, but Lux is arguably an upgrade over Josh Lowe, who struggled at the plate in 2025.
With Sal Stewart ready to play somewhere and Noelvi Marte now a full-time outfielder, Lux didn’t project to start for the Reds, so they swap his one year of team control of Lux for one year of the lefty reliever Burke, coming off a 3.36 ERA in 69 appearances with the Angels. He’s the third significant addition to the bullpen, after the Reds signed Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson as free agents.
Roster construction can often be a confounding thing to analyze. After not re-signing Alex Bregman, who went to the Cubs for five years and $175 million last weekend, the Boston Red Sox apparently took that money and gave it to left-handed starter Ranger Suarez. He’s a good pitcher. That’s also a lot of money for Ranger Suarez.
He has never made 30 starts in a season. He has never qualified for an ERA title by pitching 162 innings. But he also has a 3.25 ERA since 2021, which ranks 10th among pitchers with at least 600 innings. At $26 million per season, his contract is in line with pitchers with a similar ERA over that span who have signed free agent deals:
Blake Snell: 3.06 ERA, $31.3 million AAV, 2025-29 Kevin Gausman: 3.34 ERA, $22 million AAV, 2022-26 Nathan Eovaldi: 3.40 ERA, $25 million AAV, 2025-27 Carlos Rodon: 3.44 ERA, $27 million AAV, 2023-28 Luis Castillo: 3.52 ERA, $21.6 million AAV, 2023-27
Of course, that 3.25 ERA includes a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings in 2021 — and Suarez isn’t going to post a 1.36 ERA again. Take out 2021 and he has a 3.59 ERA since 2022, plus he lacks the Cy Young upside of Snell and the durability of Gausman (five straight seasons of 30 starts).
The concern is how long he can keep it going. Last season, 127 pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Twenty of them, including Suarez, featured fastballs that averaged less than 92 mph. That group combined for a 4.34 ERA. Not awful, but it points to how Suarez has been an outlier among this type of pitcher. That alone doesn’t mean he can’t keep it going for the next four or five years if he stays healthy, but if he loses even a little off his fastball, it could be a big issue.
That leaves the Red Sox the ability to make a trade for an infielder if they don’t want to entrust starting spots to both Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. They have Triston Casas with nowhere to play and still have four good outfielders. Red Sox fans have grumbled for the past year, from the Rafael Devers trade to not signing Bregman. The roster, however, looks like one that can win the division. — Schoenfield
When Arenado returned from the IL last September, he bemoaned to the St. Louis media that his injury woes had sapped his power, among other things, but most of those declines are now multiyear issues at this point. As a rambunctious player who has so freely thrown his body around over the years while building a reputation for playing through discomfort, the cumulative effect of it all might simply mean that Arenado’s body has passed a point of no return.
Arizona is making a bet that Arenado has enough left to be an above-average contributor on a team trying to win. The forecasts would disagree. But a resurgent season would be a welcome sight, both for the Diamondbacks and for future Hall of Fame voters looking at a case already worth considering.
As for dominoes, there were already reports circulating that Lawlar was working on his positional versatility with a possible short-term future as a positional rover and a longer-term one of playing the outfield. You also have to wonder if his trade availability now ticks up as Arizona looks to add some impact to its pitching staff.
Martinez is already 22 with that lack of a pro track record. A 6-4 righty, BA reports that he throws in the mid-90s and touches 97 with a fastball he struggles to command to the point that he doesn’t throw it that often. Fixing that is now the Cardinals’ task but, for now, Martinez is just a flier. — Doolittle
That makes him more of an excellent player with a relatively stable level of production than a superstar. He hasn’t been one of the top 10 players in the league in any single season across the past six campaigns. This deal gives a lot of money for a player of this level who is entering his age-32 season.
The Chicago Cubs made a run at Bregman last offseason, only to see him sign a three-year deal with the Boston Red Sox that included an opt-out, which Bregman exercised after hitting .273/.360/.462 with 3.5 WAR in 114 games (missing time with a quad injury). That the Cubs signed him this time around is a minor surprise, given the Red Sox wanted Bregman back and several of the young players on the Boston roster had praised Bregman’s leadership qualities.
Shaw is now blocked, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Nico Hoerner is a free agent after 2026, so maybe Shaw is the long-term fix at second base. He can fill in as the utility infielder for 2026 then replace Hoerner. Having too many good players isn’t a problem, and manager Craig Counsell will have a lot more lineup flexibility and injury depth. Or maybe Shaw or Hoerner becomes trade bait for more pitching depth.
The Cubs’ rotation before this deal was more good than dynamic, a description that could change with the addition of the talented Cabrera. With health and further fine-tuning in the command department, Cabrera retains top-of-the-rotation upside. The ultimate verdict on this deal will depend on how much of that upside is realized in Chicago. If Cabrera is a Game 1 or 2 postseason starter over the next couple of Octobers, we’ll have our answer.
That is if he can stay healthy, a caveat that applies to all pitchers but is particularly relevant to Cabrera, who has been placed on the injured list nine times as a big leaguer — at least once in each of his five seasons. He has gone on the shelf with elbow/bicep issues, blisters, a sprained ankle and, most notably, the shoulder problems that clipped his 2024 season.