play0:58C.J. Stroud picked off 4 times in first half by PatriotsC.J. Stroud throws four interceptions in the first half for the Texans vs. the Patriots.
How much will Bo Nix’s absence affect Broncos? (1:45)Ryan Clark and Jason Kelce detail where the Broncos go from here with Bo Nix being out for the rest of the playoffs. (1:45)
C.J. Stroud picked off 4 times in first half by PatriotsC.J. Stroud throws four interceptions in the first half for the Texans vs. the Patriots.
(5) Los Angeles Rams or (2) Chicago Bears at (1) Seattle Seahawks
One conference championship game is set, as the Broncos will host the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will host the winner of the Rams-Bears divisional showdown in the NFC title game.
Why the Patriots will win: Jarrett Stidham is starting for Denver. There are many reasons why the Patriots could and should win against the Broncos, but there’s nothing quite as impactful as the simple fact that Denver is starting a backup quarterback. And it means that in the most important phase of any football game — passing offense — the Broncos are severely outmatched.
That’s not only because of Stidham. It’s because the Patriots have, in my view, the MVP from this regular season. Drake Maye led the NFL in QBR and completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And while the Broncos’ pass rush and secondary will make life more difficult on Maye, he also led all quarterbacks in scramble rate (10.3%). Plus, Denver’s defense isn’t quite in the same league as the Texans, who the Patriots just beat.
Maye will hardly have to be perfect because of who is on the other side. The Broncos will be diminished with Stidham at quarterback, and that ought to be enough for the best passing offense in the NFL. New England’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s a heck of a lot better with defensive tackle Milton Williams on the field and cornerback Christian Gonzalez’s recent improvement in the postseason. Unless things go unexpectedly awry, the Patriots should be Super Bowl bound. — Walder
Why the Broncos will win: Let’s be real. In the wake of the news that Nix is out for the season, we should change this prompt to why the Broncos could win. But there’s always a chance, and for the Broncos, it’s based on their defense being able to counter what the Patriots do best. Denver’s defense will have to deliver an AFC Championship Game win and a trip to the Super Bowl. But it can.
The Broncos’ secondary boasts a superstar cornerback in Pat Surtain II, a strong nickel back in McMillian and a hard-hitting safety in Talanoa Hufanga. Their pass rush also has an advantage over New England’s offensive line. Powered by players such as edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen, the Broncos rank third in pass rush win rate, giving them the edge over a Patriots’ offensive line that finished 13th in pass block win rate.
As for the Broncos’ biggest question, Stidham will be protected by arguably the league’s best offensive line. While Stidham is clearly a massive downgrade from Nix, the rest of Denver’s roster is loaded. That gives the Broncos a shot (albeit a long shot) to advance. — Walder
Early X factor: Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. The Broncos’ defense allowed an average of 59.7 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, and we just watched Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid catch six passes for 83 yards and a score in the divisional round. Henry can work the seams, while also uncovering as an outlet for quarterback Drake Maye. Plus, Henry caught five touchdowns in the red zone this season. — Bowen
Matchup background: The Broncos and Patriots have not played since 2023, when New England beat Denver 26-23 in Russell Wilson’s last game with the Broncos. Denver owns a 4-1 advantage over the Patriots in the playoffs, including AFC Championship Game victories after the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The latter, a 20-18 Broncos victory, came after the Patriots failed to convert a game-tying two-point conversion in the final seconds. — ESPN
Stat to know: Stidham’s last pass attempt in a game came on Jan. 7, 2024 against the Raiders. When the AFC Championship Game kicks off, it will be 749 days since his last attempt. That would be more than double the longest span between pass attempts for a QB starting a playoff game since 1950. The current longest is 370 days for Joe Webb, which ended when he started a 2012 wild-card loss for the Vikings. — ESPN Research
The Bears and Seahawks, meanwhile, last met late in the 2024 season, with Seattle beating Chicago 6-3 in a defensive battle. The Bears have won both playoff matchups between the teams, most recently prevailing in the 2010 NFC divisional playoffs. This would be their first postseason meeting in Seattle, though. — ESPN
How much will Bo Nix’s absence affect Broncos? (1:45)Ryan Clark and Jason Kelce detail where the Broncos go from here with Bo Nix being out for the rest of the playoffs. (1:45)
Ryan Clark and Jason Kelce detail where the Broncos go from here with Bo Nix being out for the rest of the playoffs. (1:45)
The divisional round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is almost over.
When: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS FPI projection: NE, 60% (by an average of 3.5 points) Opening line: NE -4.5 (41.5)
C.J. Stroud picked off 4 times in first half by Patriots
C.J. Stroud throws four interceptions in the first half for the Texans vs. the Patriots.