play0:42C.J. Stroud throws his 4th INT of the gameCarlton Davis III picks off C.J. Stroud again as the Patriots come away with their fourth interception of the first half vs. the Texans.
play0:16Seahawks pick off Brock Purdy in 3rd quarterBrock Purdy tries to throw down the middle, but gets intercepted by the 49ers’ Ernest Jones IV.
play0:19Wil Lutz sends Broncos to AFC Championship Game on winning FG in OTWil Lutz nails the game-winning field goal in overtime to send the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game.
Dan GrazianoCloseDan Grazianosenior NFL national reporterDan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.Follow on XBen SolakCloseBen SolakESPNBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.Jan 18, 2026, 06:40 PM ET
Kayshon Boutte makes ridiculous catch for a huge Pats TD (0:39)Drake Maye goes deep to Kayshon Boutte who somehow brings it down with one hand for a Patriots touchdown vs. the Texans. (0:39)
C.J. Stroud throws his 4th INT of the gameCarlton Davis III picks off C.J. Stroud again as the Patriots come away with their fourth interception of the first half vs. the Texans.
Carlton Davis III picks off C.J. Stroud again as the Patriots come away with their fourth interception of the first half vs. the Texans.
Seahawks pick off Brock Purdy in 3rd quarterBrock Purdy tries to throw down the middle, but gets intercepted by the 49ers’ Ernest Jones IV.
Wil Lutz sends Broncos to AFC Championship Game on winning FG in OTWil Lutz nails the game-winning field goal in overtime to send the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game.
Wil Lutz nails the game-winning field goal in overtime to send the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game.
The NFL divisional round began with an incredible game in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos went to overtime, but the Broncos emerged on top after hitting a 23-yard field goal to win it in the extra frame. But it came at a cost; quarterback Bo Nix went down because of an ankle injury. The second game was more one-sided, as the Seahawks blew out the 49ers on Saturday night.
Sunday began with a snowy win for the Patriots over the Texans, with New England capitalizing on four C.J. Stroud interceptions. One more game is on the docket, with Rams-Bears set for Sunday night.
What are the main lessons and takeaways from each divisional round matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the second round and look forward from all angles. For each divisional round game, Solak is answering one big remaining question and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.
Let’s jump in, making sense of the Stroud’s performance, the Patriots’ defense, the Seahawks’ great roster, the 49ers’ decimated roster, the Nix injury news and the Bills’ playoff woes. And we will continue to react to games as they happen over the course of the weekend.
As the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, Stroud is now eligible for a contract extension for the first time. To be clear: I have not heard one single indication that the Texans are planning to do anything other than extend Stroud as soon as they can. That’s almost certainly what will happen. But are we 100 percent sure it should?
Teams rush into these deals far too often (hello, Dolphins!) and end up regretting them. I’m just not understanding the need to rush a Stroud extension after what we saw Sunday (and last Monday) and while Houston still has at least four more years of team control. — Graziano
The lingering question: Are we properly rating this Patriots defense after two dominant playoff performances?
A quick look at the stats: Against the Texans, the Patriors had 3.3 yards per play allowed and five takeaways. They pressured Stroud on 36% of his dropbacks, and he was 2-for-14 on those plays. Texans running backs had 18 carries for 31 yards — this, one week after the Chargers’ backs had 12 carries for 30 yards in the wild-card round. The Patriots have given up one touchdown across two playoff games, and it was a 27-yard drive off a Drake Maye turnover.
Kudos to the Seahawks for treating the QB portion of their offseason the way they would have treated any other portion of it. They didn’t get the player they wanted, but they knew they could still win with this quarterback because of everything else they do well. Hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach was a last offseason move, not a this offseason move, but it was still one that impacted their approach to this offseason. And here they still are. — Graziano
It’s too early to say, of course. But spin it forward for me. The Seahawks will likely be the favorite, barring some catastrophic injury between now and then. The Rams could be up there, as well, especially if they finish the NFC playoffs strong … but Matthew Stafford’s career longevity is always going to be a question that hurts them in the futures markets. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have most of their main players under contract.
Of course, the 49ers will see if they get through the offseason without losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was key to their surprising success despite all the injuries. Saleh has interviewed with the Titans and Ravens already and is a deservedly hot name on the head coaching circuit. If he gets a job, San Francisco will be forced back on the defensive coordinator carousel.
Brock Purdy tries to throw down the middle, but gets intercepted by the 49ers’ Ernest Jones IV.
It’s also worth noting that the 49ers, who had a very easy schedule entering this season, will play a third-place schedule next season despite their postseason appearance. With only a few moves in offseason housekeeping and a regression to the mean in injury luck, the Niners should be considered a deep NFC playoff team once again. — Solak
But now? You want me to believe the Broncos are going to beat Houston or New England with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback? And even if they do, does anyone believe they can then win the Super Bowl? I’m sorry, Jarrett, but it just doesn’t feel to me like this Broncos team is good enough to pull a 2017 Eagles and win this thing without their starting quarterback.
The Broncos defense is going to have to play the game of a lifetime next week — even if it’s against Houston’s inconsistent offense — if it wants to lug this team into the Super Bowl. And even if it collects a bunch of turnovers and sneaks into the big game, Denver is then going to have to beat a team that has had two weeks off and likely still has its starting quarterback.
It’s a shame. It would have been fun to see what Sean Payton and this Broncos team could have done. Payton could have been the first coach to win the Super Bowl with two different teams. But in the wake of the Nix injury news, all of that is a lot harder to imagine. — Graziano
I have no idea. What is there to say? The Bills turned the football over five times, and no team that turns the ball over five times deserves to be in the game at all. Josh Allen’s end-of-half fumble to let the Broncos go up 20-10 was an inexcusable mistake. He was stripped to start the second half to give Denver an even bigger lead. He threw a pick immediately off a key defensive takeaway.
Wil Lutz sends Broncos to AFC Championship Game on winning FG in OT
Still, when you’ve lost seven playoff games, there are some obvious unifying factors — coach Sean McDermott, GM Brandon Beane and Allen. The Bills’ triumvirate has been in place for the better part of a decade and has yet to get over the hump. Whether fair or unfair, the buck stops at the top, and the fact that the Bills have failed to make a Super Bowl in Allen’s tenure despite seven postseason appearances is an enormous failure.
If the Bills make changes, I’d totally get it. If they don’t, I’d totally get it, too. They’ve been so close so many times. What a devastating loss. — Solak
No, not an overreaction. Stroud got it together in the second half Sunday, especially considering he was playing without top wide receiver Nico Collins, starting tight end Dalton Schultz got hurt and the Texans have no run game whatsoever. But he was catastrophically bad in the first half, throwing four interceptions and putting his team into a hole from which even its stifling defense could not extract it. This performance came six days after Stroud fumbled five times and turned the ball over three times in a wild-card-round victory over the Steelers that was closer in the fourth quarter than it should have been.
This season’s Texans, who rolled into Foxborough on a 10-game win streak and with a defense playing as well as any defense east of Seattle, had a golden opportunity. A win would have advanced them to their first AFC Championship Game next Sunday against a banged-up Broncos team that’s going to be playing without its starting quarterback. Sunday was a wet, snowy, sloppy game in which the Patriots had plenty of their own turnover problems and surely could have been beaten by a team that did a better job of holding on to the ball. But the Texans were not that team, and whatever legitimate excuses Stroud might have had available to him, he played horribly. You can make a strong case that he’s the reason Houston lost.
Stroud’s rookie season was a revelation. And he has led the Texans to the second round of the playoffs in each of his three seasons so far. They believe they have a true franchise quarterback. But after throwing 26 touchdown passes and only five interceptions (counting playoffs) as a rookie, he has now thrown a combined 42 touchdowns and 26 interceptions (counting playoffs) in the two seasons since then. The Texans changed offensive coordinators after Stroud’s second season, in which he was sacked 52 times, and he did see improvement this season. But he still wasn’t up to his rookie-year standards, and this season will be remembered for his postseason meltdown.