Mel Kiper Jr.Jan 21, 2026, 06:25 AM ETCloseMel Kiper Jr. has served as an NFL draft analyst for ESPN since 1984. He is a regular contributor on “SportsCenter,” ESPN studio shows and ESPN Radio. He is the co-host of the First Draft podcast, and he writes regularly for ESPN+.Follow on X
play0:44Carnell Tate rises over 2 Wisconsin defenders for an Ohio State TDJulian Sayin lets it fly to Carnell Tate for a fantastic Ohio State touchdown vs. Wisconsin.
play0:31Zachariah Branch makes incredible TD grab for GeorgiaGeorgia QB Gunner Stockton lobs it to Zachariah Branch in the end zone, who makes a leaping grab for the touchdown.
play0:31Cashius Howell records 3 consecutive sacks vs. Utah StateTexas A&M’s Cashius Howell becomes the first player with three consecutive sacks since 2015.
Jordan Rodgers: Fernando Mendoza put on a Heisman Trophy encore (1:38)Jordan Rodgers says Fernando Mendoza showed up when it mattered most, leading Indiana to victory in the CFP National Championship game. (1:38)
Carnell Tate rises over 2 Wisconsin defenders for an Ohio State TDJulian Sayin lets it fly to Carnell Tate for a fantastic Ohio State touchdown vs. Wisconsin.
Mel Kiper Jr. examines whether Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a first-round pick after he declared for the draft.
Zachariah Branch makes incredible TD grab for GeorgiaGeorgia QB Gunner Stockton lobs it to Zachariah Branch in the end zone, who makes a leaping grab for the touchdown.
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton lobs it to Zachariah Branch in the end zone, who makes a leaping grab for the touchdown.
Cashius Howell records 3 consecutive sacks vs. Utah StateTexas A&M’s Cashius Howell becomes the first player with three consecutive sacks since 2015.
It’s an exciting time in the football calendar, with the College Football Playoff National Championship game — congrats to Indiana on an amazing season — and the NFL playoffs’ conference championship games falling within a week’s time. It’s also when we really start to ramp up the NFL draft discussion, and I’m taking the opportunity to release my first mock draft for the 2026 class.
There is only one clear first-round quarterback, followed by a few other passers who could join. (I projected two QBs on Day 1 here.) But we should see a bunch of talented pass catchers — the offensive skill positions make up a quarter of my 32 pick projections below — and impact defenders.
The draft order is set for the first 28 picks, and I used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) for the Broncos, Patriots, Rams and Seahawks, who, of course, still have some football to play before their slots lock in. I didn’t project any trades quite yet, but four first-round picks already have been dealt to other teams. The Rams have the Falcons’ selection, the Jets have the Colts’ selection, the Cowboys have the Packers’ selection and the Browns have the Jaguars’ selection.
One thing to remember before I dive in: The predraft process commences with the East-West Shrine Bowl and the Panini Senior Bowl over the next two weeks, before continuing with the combine, pro days, private workouts and team interviews. We still have NFL free agency and the trade market to sort out. Heck, six teams don’t even have head coaches yet. The point is, it’s very early, and a lot is going to change.
This is an easy one. The Raiders traded a third-round pick for Geno Smith less than a year ago, but it hasn’t worked out. He finished the 2025 season ranked 27th of 28 qualified passers in QBR (34.1), throwing 17 interceptions over 15 games. And with a new coach (to be determined) coming in, it’s time for a fresh start.
As for offense, this is a pretty deep class of pass catchers. But if Saleh decides Ward’s supporting cast is the first-round priority no matter what, then I’d expect Ohio State’s Carnell Tate to get some attention here. Speaking of Tate …
This also would be the fifth straight year we’ve seen a first-round wideout from Ohio State. Tate would bring fantastic route running and reliable hands to MetLife Stadium. He caught 51 passes for 875 yards and nine scores for the Buckeyes this past season.
Carnell Tate rises over 2 Wisconsin defenders for an Ohio State TD
Julian Sayin lets it fly to Carnell Tate for a fantastic Ohio State touchdown vs. Wisconsin.
By the way, this would be only the third time in the common draft era (since 1967) that multiple Miami players went in the top 10 (2004 and 1987).
Ignoring positional value, Love is the second-best prospect on my Big Board. Vision. Burst. Power. Speed. Receiving skills. This kid has it all, and he ran for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns this past season.
This would be just the second time in the common draft era that three Ohio State players went in the top 10, per ESPN Research. (The other class was 2016.) And spoiler alert: Two more Buckeyes are in this mock draft. OSU could own Round 1.
Miami could use this pick to reload on the edge. The Dolphins traded Jaelan Phillips at the deadline, and Bradley Chubb could be a cap-saving release this offseason, since he has no guaranteed money left on his deal. Mixing Chop Robinson’s burst with Faulk’s power could be a long-term solution.
OK, let’s get McCoy off the board for real now. He’s a tough evaluation, as he didn’t play a snap of football in the 2025 season after tearing an ACL last January. Teams are going to have to take that into consideration, and his medical checks at the combine will be key. We saw Ja’Marr Chase, Penei Sewell, Micah Parsons and Rashawn Slater all go in the top 15 in 2021 without playing at all in 2020, but they were all COVID-19 opt-outs. Recovering from an injury is a little different.
That all said, McCoy is a ball hawk, and he’s still a top-15 prospect for me. He had four interceptions and nine pass breakups back in 2024. Los Angeles has gotten the most out of its cornerbacks this season en route to the NFC Championship Game, but it still needs a true CB1. The Rams gave up 7.6 yards per pass attempt this season, tied for fifth highest.
Lemon is one of my favorite prospects in this class. He attacks the ball in the air, and you can see his competitiveness in the way he plays the game. Like Zay Flowers, he’s on the smaller side at 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds. But also like Flowers, he still has inside-outside flexibility. Lemon went for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns this past season, and that kind of production could help get Lamar Jackson back to MVP levels.
The Buccaneers landed Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 last April, but don’t be surprised if they go back to the pass-catching well in 2026. After a hot start to the season, Baker Mayfield slowed down in the second half, and his offense could lose wide receiver Mike Evans and tight end Cade Otton. They are both free agents, and Evans is 32. Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., Jalen McMillan and Tez Johnson should be able to carry the WR room, but the tight end group would take a big hit.
What Tampa Bay needs is exactly what Sadiq would provide. He’s a big, 6-foot-3 target with explosive traits, making him a matchup nightmare for opponents. Mayfield could get him the ball in space to let him use his after-the-catch ability to pick up the sticks or fire jump balls to him in the back of the end zone. I really like this match.
Recall that the Jets were left out of the quarterback game when they were on the board the first time at No. 2; there just isn’t another top-five QB prospect in this class right now beyond Fernando Mendoza. But getting linebacker Arvell Reese there then getting the class’ QB2 here? That’s a pretty good first round for New York.
Carolina took a big step forward on defense (and overall) this season, but there’s a looming void in the middle. Christian Rozeboom is a free agent, and the Panthers could use a three-down middle linebacker to step in. Allen is a read-and-react player who sees it and goes. In 2025, Allen had 97 tackles. He also can chip in with the pass rush, and you’ll see him drop in coverage on tape.
The Panthers went from 5-12 in 2024 to NFC South champions at 8-9 this season. Nailing this pick could be important in defending that title and making more noise in the playoffs next season.
Taking Sonny Styles at No. 12 then Mesidor here would help that Dallas defense in a big way — but Jerry Jones would have to figure out the secondary on Day 2 or in free agency. That’s yet another hole on that side of the ball.
I really wanted to get a quarterback to the Steelers in this spot. It’s possible Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss finds himself in the first-round conversation, obviously depending on what happens with his NCAA eligibility lawsuit. But the other QBs in this class would be big reaches. I don’t know what Pittsburgh will do under center or whether Aaron Rodgers will play another season, but there doesn’t appear to be an easy fix in Round 1 this year.
So, let’s pivot to the rest of the offense and land a WR2 alongside DK Metcalf. We saw what happens when this offense loses Metcalf, as the Steelers managed just one passing touchdown over Weeks 17 and 18 while Metcalf was suspended. But Boston runs strong routes and uses his physicality to box out defenders and make plays on the ball. He had 11 touchdowns this past season, including seven in the red zone. He’d elevate the unit right out of the gate and take some weight off Metcalf.
Philadelphia could go a lot of directions, especially if it moves on from wide receiver A.J. Brown this offseason. But one spot that has received a lot of attention is actually on defense. The Eagles tried to fix the CB2 position opposite Quinyon Mitchell (Cooper DeJean is in the slot) with trades for Jaire Alexander and Michael Carter II, but neither move did the trick. Carter barely played down the stretch, and Alexander stepped away from football in mid-November.
Terrell, though, would be a reliable answer. He broke up nine passes and forced five — yes, five — fumbles in 2025. He’s terrific in man coverage, and coordinator Vic Fangio had his defense in man 55% of the time this season, third most in the NFL.