Seth WalderJan 22, 2026, 06:25 AM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
play1:41Is Joe Brady the right coach for Josh Allen?Jason McCourty explains why Joe Brady might be the right person to lead Josh Allen and the Bills.
play1:47Why Rex was shocked Bears didn’t go for twoRex Ryan and Dan Orlovsky question why Ben Johnson chose not to go for a go-ahead 2-point conversion late vs. the Rams.
Eisen: Patriots’ playoff run is ‘unreal’ (2:03)Rich Eisen is amazed by what the Patriots have been able to do this postseason. (2:03)
Is Joe Brady the right coach for Josh Allen?Jason McCourty explains why Joe Brady might be the right person to lead Josh Allen and the Bills.
Why Rex was shocked Bears didn’t go for twoRex Ryan and Dan Orlovsky question why Ben Johnson chose not to go for a go-ahead 2-point conversion late vs. the Rams.
Rex Ryan and Dan Orlovsky question why Ben Johnson chose not to go for a go-ahead 2-point conversion late vs. the Rams.
Because the NFL MVP award itself rarely answers these questions, I take it upon myself to submit a 100-player ballot. There were a lot of players who played well this season. So why not rank them? This is my fourth annual attempt at doing just that.
Maye might not be the NFL MVP when it is announced Feb. 5 … but he should be. And while it was a close race throughout the season, I don’t think it was really that close at the end.
Maye finished as the NFL’s QBR leader by a healthy margin, with his 77.2 being well ahead of that of the next-highest finisher (Jordan Love at 72.9). And because QBR already adjusts for opponent quality, Maye’s big lead takes into account the Patriots’ easy strength of schedule.
Critically, the Patriots relied heavily on Maye. New England had a 3.7% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the second highest in the league. In quarterback points above average — essentially the volume version of QBR — Maye (57.1) drastically outperformed fellow prime MVP contender Matthew Stafford (42.5), who ranked third.
Maye also led the league in scramble rate (10.3% of dropbacks) and ranked second in total scramble EPA (plus-26.8). He really had just one weakness: taking sacks, which he did 7.8% of the time, higher than the 6.2% average. But that’s hardly enough to knock him off the top spot.
Prescott’s numbers are right there. He ranked fifth in QBR, but his volume metrics were stronger due to the Cowboys’ considerable reliance on him. Prescott added 46.1 points above average, second only to Maye and ahead of Stafford. Prescott ranked third in completion percentage over expected (plus-4%), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and was fourth in off-target rate (11%).
It is harder to play quarterback when trailing because you are forced into more clear passing situations. Prescott played only 26% of his snaps this season with the lead — a dramatic difference from Maye (54%) and Stafford (46%).
The counterargument against Prescott is that he had two exceptional receivers to throw to in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. While that’s valid, Stafford’s top two receivers are elite, too. Ultimately, Prescott should not be punished for the Cowboys’ decision to trade away Micah Parsons or their general defensive failures. Regardless of Dallas’ place in the standings, the numbers point toward Prescott being the second-most valuable player this season.
Stafford’s turnover rate was 1.6%, seventh best and just barely ahead of Maye (eighth) and Prescott (ninth). While Stafford had a good offensive line, that he was sacked only 3.7% of the time is a testament mostly to him and one area where he was clearly superior to Maye.
But Stafford’s accuracy numbers were not on par with those of the other contenders — he ranked 13th in completion percentage over expected and 20th in off-target rate — and his lack of running ability was a negative, though those numbers are mostly baked into the EPA-based metrics. So while Stafford should be in the mix for MVP, I have a hard time getting him to No. 1 based on the combination of those numbers and further context they do not consider.
The Rams had the NFL’s highest success rate on designed runs, and Stafford enjoyed the highest rate of play-action (36%) of any quarterback. He used designed rollouts on 12% of dropbacks (second most) and faced eight-man boxes on 11% of dropbacks (third). L.A. ranked fifth in pass block win rate (69%). He played with two exceptional receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and he had Sean McVay calling plays for him.
Even with all that support, Stafford still had to play remarkably well to compile the numbers he did. But it wasn’t remarkable enough to be No. 1 for me.
Allen’s argument is based on the amount he has to shoulder with the Bills. Despite a lacking wide receivers room, Allen managed to rank seventh in QBR and sixth in points above average.
He had the lowest off-target rate among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks and, of course, added a ton of value on the ground. Allen ranked first in EPA on designed runs (29.4), with 12.8 coming on tush pushes, and sixth in EPA on scrambles (20.9). Allen had a good offensive line in front of him and a solid run game, though his personal running threat surely helped non-QB runs, as well.
Jason McCourty explains why Joe Brady might be the right person to lead Josh Allen and the Bills.
Ultimately, this was not one of Allen’s best seasons, and his early-season struggles — he ranked 11th in QBR through Week 6 — should not be overlooked. But he was still massively impactful. Allen isn’t top-five based on his efficiency numbers alone, but considering to whom he was throwing and his impact on every aspect of the Bills’ offense, he still was one of the five most valuable players this season.
Love very quietly finished second in the league in QBR (72.8) — behind only Maye. He wasn’t a true contender for MVP because the volume wasn’t there. He missed the final two games of the season and was also held back by the Packers’ run-heavy leanings — with a minus-6% pass rate over expected (26th), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Herbert was not done any favors this season, as the Chargers’ offensive line was one of the weakest units in the NFL. Los Angeles lost left tackle Rashawn Slater to injury before the season, and right tackle Joe Alt went down after just six games played. The result? A 53.9% team pass block win rate, the worst in the NFL by a healthy margin.
His accuracy was solid, with a plus-3% completion percentage over expected that ranked eighth. But where Herbert particularly shone this season was scrambling, adding 24.3 EPA on scrambles, fourth most in the NFL and a huge increase from his 16th-place ranking in 2024. He added the seventh-most EPA on designed runs, too.
I flip-flopped Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua several times when making this list, so consider this a 51-49 decision that truly could have gone either way.
Smith-Njigba was unbelievable this season. The box score metrics speak for themselves: 119 receptions for a league-leading 1,793 receiving yards. His 3.85 yards per route run not only led the NFL this season but was the third-best season in the metric since at least 2007 (as far back as we have route data). He led the league in yards per route run (4.06) and had the ninth-best drop rate at 0.6% — far better than Nacua’s 2.4%.
Moving mostly to outside receiver this season, Smith-Njigba’s 35% target rate and 25% reception per route rate each ranked second to Nacua’s. And Smith-Njigba’s 2.72 completed air yards per route led the NFL. He also achieved all this with a far inferior quarterback throwing him the ball relative to Nacua — and without another receiving teammate to scare defenses.
Nacua’s best argument over Smith-Njigba stems from player tracking metrics. In ESPN’s receiver scores, Nacua ranked first with a 97 on a 0-99 scale. That was the third-best WR season in overall score in the metric’s history (since 2017), behind A.J. Brown in 2024 and Antonio Brown in 2017.
Nacua makes his presence felt as a blocker too. While we don’t have perfect metrics to capture that part of his game, he recorded 73 run block wins this season, second most among wide receivers.
While there’s reasonable debate between Nacua and Smith-Njigba for WR1, these were clearly the two most valuable non-quarterbacks of the 2025 season.
The Browns had only five wins this season, but Garrett certainly held up more than his fair share of the bargain with his record 23 sacks.
If it weren’t for Garrett setting the single-season sack record, Anderson easily could have been the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. He had a little more than half the sacks Garrett did (12), but Anderson’s 62 pass-rush wins was second in the NFL behind only Parsons. And Anderson did all that while ranking eighth in run stop win rate at edge (28.2%), too.
The Packers got only 14 games out of Parsons in his first season in Green Bay, but he delivered 17 games worth of production. He had 66 pass-rush wins (most in the NFL) and 64 pressures (also No. 1) along with 12.5 sacks. And he was efficient, too, with a 23.4% pass rush win rate at edge that ranked behind only those of Nick Herbig (who played far less) and Nik Bonitto.
Perhaps the best Parsons stats were Green Bay’s splits with him on and off the field. With Parsons, the Packers recorded a 43.9% pass rush win rate (would be fourth best) and 0.01 EPA allowed per play (14th best). Without him, those numbers dropped to 28.1% (32nd) and 0.12 (29th).
Simmons’ career was quite successful entering 2025, but he had never earned first-team All-Pro honors and always was in the shadow of Aaron Donald and/or Chris Jones. But this season, Simmons was the league’s best defensive tackle, a lonely bright spot on the 3-14 Titans.
Simmons recorded a 15% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (second best at the position behind Jones) along with 11.0 sacks and 12.0 team sacks created. That he accomplished this on the Titans makes it even more impressive. Because Tennessee was always behind, Simmons had far fewer pure pass-rush opportunities against opponents in desperate passing situations compared with many of his peers.