Midseason lessons for all 30 NBA teams: Trade dramas, standings surprises dominate the first half

Tim BontempsJan 23, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseTim Bontemps is a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com who covers the league and what’s impacting it on and off the court, including trade deadline intel, expansion and his MVP Straw Polls. You can find Tim alongside Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on The Hoop Collective podcast.Follow on X

play1:40Stephen A.: Warriors headed for first-round exit without ButlerStephen A. Smith says he is “devastated” for Jimmy Butler after his season-ending injury and believes it will lead to a first-round playoff exit for the Warriors.

play0:58Lakers fortunes turn as Reaves nears returnDave McMenamin reports after the Lakers win over the Nuggets.

play1:09Stephen A. sounds off on Knicks defense: ‘They’re horrible’Stephen A. Smith and Chris “Mad Dog” Russo try to make sense of the New York Knicks’ downward spiral since Christmas.

play1:15San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Game HighlightsSan Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Game Highlights

Stephen A.: The Bucks need to wake up and trade Giannis (3:19)Stephen A. Smith emphatically believes it’s time for the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo to break up, calling for Milwaukee to trade him. (3:19)

Stephen A.: Warriors headed for first-round exit without ButlerStephen A. Smith says he is “devastated” for Jimmy Butler after his season-ending injury and believes it will lead to a first-round playoff exit for the Warriors.

Stephen A. Smith says he is “devastated” for Jimmy Butler after his season-ending injury and believes it will lead to a first-round playoff exit for the Warriors.

Lakers fortunes turn as Reaves nears returnDave McMenamin reports after the Lakers win over the Nuggets.

Stephen A. sounds off on Knicks defense: ‘They’re horrible’Stephen A. Smith and Chris “Mad Dog” Russo try to make sense of the New York Knicks’ downward spiral since Christmas.

Stephen A. Smith and Chris “Mad Dog” Russo try to make sense of the New York Knicks’ downward spiral since Christmas.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Game HighlightsSan Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Game Highlights

With at least 41 games in the books for every NBA team, let’s take stock of what we’ve learned from the first half of a 2025-26 campaign already full of surprise contenders, historic performances and plenty of twists and turns. (And one trade!)

A pair of young teams — the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder and the resurgent Detroit Pistons — raced out to massive leads in both conferences. Trade sagas surrounding star forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis have dominated headlines for months. Meanwhile, uncertain futures for LeBron James and Chris Paul have put a spotlight on the league’s next generation.

There have been many other standout storylines through the first half. And after conversations this week with coaches, executives and scouts around the league, let’s examine one thing we’ve learned from each team.

Much was made of Young’s awkward fit in Atlanta before he was traded to the Wizards last month. But while the team’s defense had cratered in the limited minutes Young has played this season, his offensive impact couldn’t be denied. With the elite facilitator off the court this season — he played just 10 games because of right leg injuries — the Hawks’ offense ranked 25th in the NBA.

After Brooklyn received a first-round pick from Denver in part of the offseason deal to land Porter, the goal for any team in the Nets’ position should be to parlay the forward into another pick on the way out. Porter has sustained his efficiency while taking on the No. 1 scoring role for the rebuilding franchise, which should attract plenty of contending teams between now and Feb. 5.

The Bulls are on pace to finish under .500 for the fourth straight season. But with large expiring contracts and some intriguing young players, Chicago has options. As the trade deadline approaches, the question remains whether the Bulls will be willing to choose one, or instead continue to wallow in mediocrity. One focus among sources is the future of Chicago’s two impending unrestricted free agent guards, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu, between now and the trade deadline.

The 19-year-old Flagg struggled when he was thrust into full-time point guard duties throughout the first few weeks of the season. But since Mavericks coach Jason Kidd shifted Flagg back to his natural position on the wing, his numbers have exploded: 20.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 48% from the field. Other players putting up those numbers this season: Nikola Jokic, Jalen Johnson and Alperen Sengun.

Amid a ridiculous rash of injuries in Denver, Watson has potentially earned a raise this summer. Since Nikola Jokic injured his knee on Dec. 29, Watson has averaged 22.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks while shooting 49.5% overall and 41.5% from 3. Those numbers led one high-ranking league executive to estimate that Watson, a restricted free agent this summer, could fetch a contract near $20 million per season.

Stephen A.: Warriors headed for first-round exit without Butler

It’s been a gruesome year for the defending East champs, who have the second-worst win percentage in the league. But Tyrese Haliburton’s seasonlong absence has given Indiana the chance to add a high-lottery pick to its core. But the Pacers might not wait until June; sources said the Pacers could look to acquire players ahead of the trade deadline to expedite a return to contention next season.

Amid the Clippers’ awful start and the ongoing investigation into potential salary cap circumvention, Leonard’s fantastic season has largely flown under the radar. The two-time Finals MVP is averaging a career-high 28.2 points and a league-leading 2.2 steals. And since LA’s 14-3 run began on Dec. 20, no player has scored more than Leonard’s 32.7 points per game.

Dave McMenamin reports after the Lakers win over the Nuggets.

NBA teams will put up with a lot if players are worth it. Memphis sticking with Morant this long has been a prime example. The fact the Grizzlies are now open to trading him, as ESPN’s Shams Charania reported earlier this month, suggests the 26-year-old guard no longer has that benefit. Any flickers of Morant’s All-NBA game — his stellar performance Sunday in London and his 40 points against the 76ers among them — have been exceptions to a season hampered by career-low shooting percentages.

Miami’s new free-flowing offense created early season buzz but has since slumped to 20th in the league in efficiency, in line with the team’s past three seasons (21st, 21st and 25th). Getting just 11 games from All-Star guard Tyler Herro has been part of the issue, but the Heat’s lack of a true floor-raising offensive talent has been obvious. And Miami might be in even worse shape had the franchise not traded for All-Star hopeful Norman Powell and his 23.7 points per game.

Gobert will turn 34 in June, but his days as one of the league’s most imposing defenders are far from over. Minnesota’s defense is 11 points per 100 possessions better when the French big man is on the court. If Victor Wembanyama winds up ineligible due to falling below the 65-game threshold, Gobert, a four-time DPOY winner, could have a chance to break a tie with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo for the most in NBA history.

The draft night trade could cost the Pelicans the No. 1 pick in June, but it has given the franchise another building block amid a miserable season in The Big Easy. Queen’s soft touch and creativity with the ball have delivered impressive flashes of talent, including two triple-doubles, and the 6-foot-9 rookie has averaged 13.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists across 33 starts.

Stephen A. sounds off on Knicks defense: ‘They’re horrible’

Although New York temporarily righted itself with Wednesday’s rout of crosstown-rival Brooklyn, the Knicks’ defensive issues must be corrected before they can be considered a championship threat. A middling defense even before the 2-9 swoon that sources told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne sparked a players-only meeting, New York had begun the calendar year as the 26th-ranked unit before stomping the Nets.

Williams’ challenges coming back from offseason wrist surgery may have been underestimated around the league. Now out for an extended period with a hamstring strain, Williams is shooting career-low percentages from the field (47%) and from 3 (30.3%). Even with reigning MVP Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and star big man Chet Holmgren, the Thunder’s repeat chances could hinge on whether Williams regains the form that delivered an electrifying 40-point performance in Game 5 of the Finals.

The No. 1 pick in 2022 is an All-Star, has a max contract and has been a member of Team USA. But over Banchero’s first four seasons, the Magic have been consistently better with him on the bench. (This season, Orlando is nearly five points per 100 possessions better.) Improving his offensive efficiency tops the list of remedies; Banchero, who missed 10 games earlier this season because of a groin injury, is shooting a career-low 26.9% from 3 and near 45% overall for a third straight year.

Less than a year after trading guard De’Aaron Fox to the Spurs, the Kings are rudderless, starless and headed toward a potential grueling rebuild. They should add a high lottery pick in a loaded 2026 draft, but with veterans on multiyear contracts up and down the roster, the pain isn’t ending soon. “They’re just going to play the lottery game and hope for the best, and that’s what they should do,” the East executive said.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Game Highlights

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets: Game Highlights

With a top-eight protected draft pick and the team’s quest for one more young building block as the dominant storyline in Utah, the impressive improvement of George has flown under the radar. George has enjoyed a massive leap in scoring (24.4 points per game, up from 16.8), but he has done it while shooting at a higher percentage on higher volume from the field, from 3 and from the free throw line.

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