David SchoenfieldJan 23, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Are the Mets now the favorite in the National League East?
No MLB team has had as interesting an offseason as the New York Mets. Gone are longtime lineup anchors Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil, plus closer Edwin Diaz and designated hitter Starling Marte, a group that played a combined 36 seasons with the Mets.
Joining the team: Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.
This certainly doesn’t feel like Plan A, but credit Stearns for his flurry of moves this week that saved the offseason. After the Mets lost out on Kyle Tucker, they reacted quickly to sign Bichette. While not a perfect fit for the roster, he’ll fit nicely alongside Francisco Lindor and Soto at the top of the lineup. They also still needed an outfielder and a No. 1 starter, so Stearns made the trade for Robert and used a deep farm system to acquire Peralta.
It’s an overhaul that few front offices are willing to risk. It pushed Stearns out of his comfort zone — he certainly never traded prospects for veterans when he ran the Milwaukee Brewers — but in New York, there is no rebuilding. Plus, with Soto in his prime and Lindor likely entering the tail end of his best years, you need to be all-in every season.
The current FanGraphs projections rank the Mets third — behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees and just ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays — so maybe the simple answer is “yes.” But let’s do some roster math to see where the Mets stand.
It’s a similar deal with Alonso and Polanco. The Mets clearly don’t believe Alonso is going to age well. The Baltimore Orioles signed him for five years at an annual average value of $31 million. Polanco comes to the Mets for two years and $20 million per season. Yes, less projected offense for the immediate future, but a lower salary and less long-term risk.
Let’s look at the projections for the seven primary new players for the Mets: Bichette, Peralta, Semien, Polanco, Robert, Williams and Weaver.
That WAR total includes 4.4 for Bichette, a conservative 2.7 for Peralta (he was worth 5.5 bWAR in 2025) and 2.1 for Polanco (not far off the 2.6 he had for the Seattle Mariners in 2025).
The five primary departures are Alonso, Nimmo, Diaz, McNeil and Marte. Peralta and Weaver essentially replace free agents Griffin Canning and Ryne Stanek. We’ll use the 2026 AAV salary for the four players with contracts and the 2025 salaries for Marte, Canning and Stanek.
For an additional $31 million or so in payroll, the Mets have replaced seven key players and added 4.5 projected wins. That’s solid work by Stearns, considering a win on the free market is worth an estimated $10 million to $11 million.
Overall, via Roster Resource at FanGraphs, the Mets estimated 2026 payroll is $365 million, up from $340 million last year. The 2026 payroll includes $17 million in dead money for the released Frankie Montas, that $5.75 million to the A’s for McNeil, plus a one-time $5 million to the Rangers for part of Nimmo’s contract.
There could be more moves in the works. Stearns could trade Baty or Vientos perhaps for an outfielder or pitching help. Kodai Senga, signed for two more years at $14 million (with a 2028 club option), has been mentioned as a trade candidate as well.
Despite all of this, it still doesn’t feel like most fans or analysts view the Mets as the third-best team in baseball. While the Dodgers are the clear No. 1 team, it’s a tight field after that with a dozen teams separated by just seven wins in the FanGraphs projections.
While the offense looks stable and the defense has improved, that leaves the pitching as the likely key to the Mets’ fortunes in 2026. The rotation lines up as:
The bullpen, other than Diaz, wasn’t good in 2025, finishing 15th in ERA. Signing the two former Yankees in Williams and Weaver is intriguing, as neither had their best season in 2025. Looking past Williams’ ugly 4.79 ERA, however, his peripheral numbers remained excellent. No, he might not match Diaz’s 2025 numbers (1.63 ERA), but Diaz has been inconsistent in his career — and given the declining velocity on his fastball, he isn’t the best bet to repeat that dominant season anyway.
Add it all up and the Mets appear better and more balanced heading into the 2026 season. Fans will miss Alonso’s energy and Timmy Trumpet blaring when Diaz came in from the bullpen, but winning solves all complaints. This looks like a team that can win the NL East, although it shapes up as a three-team race with the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
One win can decide the fate of a season. The Mets hope this roster restructuring leads to more than one additional victory.
In baseball, there are two accounting tricks going on: wins and payroll. Even the Mets have some constraints on how much they are willing to spend on salaries. While Stearns made some big-market moves, he’s also keeping an eye on the long-term payroll and roster flexibility. Semien, for example, will make a few more million this year than Nimmo, but he is signed for three more seasons compared to five for Nimmo. Getting out of those final two years of Nimmo’s contract — a player who peaked in 2022 and 2023 — while getting a similarly valued player in Semien in return is a good move.
Tobias Myers, part of the Peralta trade, is probably next in line, with Christian Scott, who’s returning from Tommy John surgery, perhaps in the mix later in the season. That feels like a solid group, although FanGraphs ranks it just 15th in the majors, projecting regression from Peralta and a so-so 3.72 ERA from McLean, who flashed ace potential in his eight-start call-up last season with a 2.06 ERA. Tong struggled in his five-start call-up despite leading the minors in strikeouts at the time he was called up, but his ceiling remains high.
None of this should be a surprise, as president of baseball operations David Stearns said the Mets weren’t “going to take anything off the table” at his 2025 season-ending news conference after they finished 83-79, tying the Cincinnati Reds for the final wild card but losing out on the tiebreaker to miss the playoffs.
Total AAV salary: $145.75 million (including $5.75 million payment to the Athletics for McNeil)
Freddy Peralta Nolan McLean David Peterson Clay Holmes Sean Manaea Kodai Senga Jonah Tong
CloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995