play0:16Sam Darnold throws a dime to JSN for a TDSam Darnold throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give the Seahawks a 17-13 lead vs. the Rams.
play0:16Cooper Kupp gets controversial first down late in 4thCooper Kupp makes a clutch catch for the Seahawks that the referees rule a first down in a critical moment.
play0:16Seahawks get critical fourth-down stop in red zoneDevon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.
play0:31Rams’ botched punt return leads to Seahawks TDXavier Smith muffs a punt for the Rams and Dareke Young recovers, setting up a Jake Bobo touchdown for the Seahawks on the next play.
play0:19Drake Maye runs in for a Pats TD in the AFC ChampionshipDrake Maye calls his own number to find the end zone and level the score for the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
play0:45Christian Gonzalez gets big INT late for PatsJarrett Stidham looks deep, but Christian Gonzalez comes away with the ball as the Patriots take over late in the AFC Championship.
Pats block crucial Broncos FG in the snow (0:42)The Patriots manage to get a hand on Wil Lutz’s field goal attempt and block it to keep a narrow lead vs. the Broncos. (0:42)
Sam Darnold throws a dime to JSN for a TDSam Darnold throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give the Seahawks a 17-13 lead vs. the Rams.
Sam Darnold throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give the Seahawks a 17-13 lead vs. the Rams.
Cooper Kupp gets controversial first down late in 4thCooper Kupp makes a clutch catch for the Seahawks that the referees rule a first down in a critical moment.
Cooper Kupp makes a clutch catch for the Seahawks that the referees rule a first down in a critical moment.
Seahawks get critical fourth-down stop in red zoneDevon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.
Devon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.
Rams’ botched punt return leads to Seahawks TDXavier Smith muffs a punt for the Rams and Dareke Young recovers, setting up a Jake Bobo touchdown for the Seahawks on the next play.
Xavier Smith muffs a punt for the Rams and Dareke Young recovers, setting up a Jake Bobo touchdown for the Seahawks on the next play.
Drake Maye runs in for a Pats TD in the AFC ChampionshipDrake Maye calls his own number to find the end zone and level the score for the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
Drake Maye calls his own number to find the end zone and level the score for the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
Christian Gonzalez gets big INT late for PatsJarrett Stidham looks deep, but Christian Gonzalez comes away with the ball as the Patriots take over late in the AFC Championship.
Jarrett Stidham looks deep, but Christian Gonzalez comes away with the ball as the Patriots take over late in the AFC Championship.
The Patriots outlasted the Broncos in the snow to win 10-7 in the AFC Championship Game, while the Seahawks slid past the Rams in a high-scoring NFC Championship Game, winning 31-27. The result: The Patriots and Rams are going to Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8.
Did the Patriots simply benefit from Bo Nix not being in the Broncos’ lineup, or was this a statement game for the defense? Did Sam Darnold exercise his Rams demons and prove he can win the big game? And were coaching decisions to blame for both the Broncos and Rams?
I’m going to sort through all of that and try to make sense of the two conference title games and what they mean. Let’s start in the NFC.
Darnold joined the Seahawks, and for three months, he was the most efficient QB in the NFL. That success, however, also came within a play-action-heavy scheme and with a breakout superstar in receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and when Darnold met the Rams again in Week 11, he cratered in a 21-19 loss. The 2018 No. 3 pick dropped from first in the NFL in Total QBR before the Rams game to 27th the rest of the way.
Perhaps as important, the negative plays that sparked so much frustration against the Rams in the past mostly disappeared. Darnold wasn’t intercepted and put only one ball in danger all night. He took three sacks, two of which came on plays in which pass rushers were instantly on Darnold, leaving him no choice but go down and eat the football.
Organizationally, it seemed the Seahawks realized that their only way through the Rams was with Darnold involved and playing well, too. There was no repeat of the hide-the-QB game plan from the first half of Week 16, as Darnold hit Rashid Shaheed up the sideline for 51 yards on the first third down of the game and averaged 8.6 air yards per throw during Sunday’s contest.
Dareke Young was the Seahawks player who initially pressured Smith and then recovered the loose ball. He ran past Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. on punt coverage. Forbes’ performance Sunday was part of another common problem for the Rams in their losses …
Cooper Kupp gets controversial first down late in 4th
The Rams have spent the entire postseason cycling through their options at corner. Ahkello Witherspoon injured his shoulder early in the wild-card win over the Panthers, ending his season and leading the Rams to bring back Darious Williams, who was a healthy scratch for that contest. Forbes injured his shoulder and played just four snaps in the Bears game last week, leading to larger roles for Williams and McCreary.
3. A fourth-down play goes awry. Some of those fourth downs were kicks, but the 49ers game swung on a red zone fumble by Kyren Williams and a subsequent fourth-down failure in overtime, where McVay regretted dialing up a duo run for Williams on fourth-and-1 in the red zone while trailing by three. The 49ers stuffed it for no gain to end the game.
Last time, McVay blamed himself. This time, after the Rams were stopped on fourth-and-4 from the 6-yard line with 4:59 to go, he had a more curious culprit. I’m not sure I’ve ever heard a coach blame the other team busting a coverage for stopping their fourth-down play, but that’s exactly what McVay did after the game: “They kinda lucked into having two guys peel on Kyren right there. I know that can’t be part of their design. So it was a fortuitous bust by them.”
There was another factor that hasn’t typically been a problem in 2025. McVay has massively improved his game management and fourth-down decision-making this season after lagging behind the rest of the league for most of his tenure as a head coach. On Sunday, though, McVay made two obvious mistakes, and they might very well have changed the game.
Computers can do a better job of sorting through all the various scenarios of how many possessions are left and how likely each team is to score in advance of a 2-point decision like that, but the simplest argument is to act on what the score is right now. And after a 28-point third quarter, neither team scored in the fourth, meaning that the Rams really did need that 2-pointer.
If the Rams had failed and stayed down five, their endgame wouldn’t have changed. If they had succeeded and been down three, of course, the Rams could have kicked a field goal to tie the game with 4:59 to go on a fourth-and-4. Instead, down by four points, they had no choice but to try scoring a touchdown.
The other mistake came on the ensuing possession. While the refs ruled that Kupp’s catch on third-and-7 gave the Seahawks a first down, the initial replays seemed to hint that the veteran wideout might have been just short of the sticks. McVay called his second timeout, then had his challenge flag in his hands, but he didn’t risk using his final timeout to challenge the spot.
This was a clear mistake. Given a tight spot and the game situation, McVay very clearly should have just thrown the challenge flag to have the spot reviewed as opposed to calling a traditional timeout. If the challenge had failed, nothing would have changed: The Rams would have essentially burned a timeout to stop the clock. And if the challenge succeeded, of course, the Rams wouldn’t have lost a timeout and could have used it to stop the clock in advance of a fourth-down decision by Seattle.
Coaches don’t want to waste challenges, but there was virtually no downside here. The Rams were a minute away from the two-minute warning, at which point all challenges come from the replay booth. McVay had two challenges remaining. Unless he thought that the initial spot was ruled short on the field, believed it was fourth down and used his timeout before learning otherwise, this was a missed opportunity.
Those decisions didn’t single-handedly decide the game, but the Rams stacked some sloppy decision-making and work on the field. Stafford and the rest of the offense couldn’t overcome those mistakes.
The Broncos managed just 32 yards and one first down over their five possessions in the second half. Jarrett Stidham got off to a solid start, but after the first quarter, his 26 dropbacks produced just 37 net yards. Denver’s best chance of scoring in the second half came after a brutal 33-yard punt by Bryce Baringer, which handed the Broncos the ball in field goal range, only for Wil Lutz’s 45-yard kick to be blocked.
The Broncos will feel like they missed an opportunity. Maye and the Patriots’ offense did little in this game, struggling to consistently move the ball even before the weather arrived. Just two of New England’s 12 drives yielded more than one first down. Denver safety Talanoa Hufanga dropped what could have been an interception on the Pats’ opening series of the game, with the Broncos fooling Maye in coverage as the second-year star tried to throw a slant to Stefon Diggs.
If Stidham just goes down for a harmless sack on that third-and-4 and the Broncos punt the ball away, they might have been OK. The weather might have kept the Patriots from having any chance of scoring in the fourth quarter.
Sean Payton was second-guessed both during and after the game for deciding against kicking a field goal to go up 10-0 early in the second quarter. With Denver facing a fourth-and-1 on New England’s 14-yard line, the ESPN Analytics model was very comfortable with Payton’s decision at the time. (Running the ball might have been preferable, though, to the Broncos putting the ball in the hands of their backup quarterback.)