play0:16Seahawks get critical fourth-down stop in red zoneDevon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.
play0:32Drake Maye seals the AFC Championship with gutsy scrambleDrake Maye keeps it for a crucial first-down conversion to seal a win over the Broncos and send the Patriots to Super Bowl LX.
Sam Darnold throws a dime to JSN for a TD (0:16)Sam Darnold throws a 14-yard touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give the Seahawks a 17-13 lead vs. the Rams. (0:16)
Seahawks get critical fourth-down stop in red zoneDevon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.
Devon Witherspoon breaks up Matthew Stafford’s pass to Terrance Ferguson in the end zone on fourth down.
Drake Maye seals the AFC Championship with gutsy scrambleDrake Maye keeps it for a crucial first-down conversion to seal a win over the Broncos and send the Patriots to Super Bowl LX.
Drake Maye keeps it for a crucial first-down conversion to seal a win over the Broncos and send the Patriots to Super Bowl LX.
Judging one overreaction: Darnold will get a huge contract extension this offseason
The Seahawks and Patriots are headed to Super Bowl LX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
Does the Patriots’ secondary stand a chance against Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Will New England’s Drake Maye become the fifth quarterback to win a Super Bowl in their second NFL season? Here’s everything you need to know.
Jump to a section: Seahawks | Patriots | Key stats Matchup keys | Big questions Overreaction | Quarterbacks Betting | Predictions
When: Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara | Tickets Opening line: SEA -3.5 (O/U 46.5) ESPN’s Football Power Index: SEA, 60.2% (by 3.6 points)
Reason for concern: Turnovers. Only Minnesota committed more than Seattle’s 28 during the regular season. Sam Darnold made the Pro Bowl despite leading all players with 20 turnovers, though he didn’t give the ball away in the Seahawks’ past three games. Darnold is also playing through an oblique injury, and Seattle’s offense just lost one of its most reliable players — running back Zach Charbonnet — to an ACL tear. — Henderson
Reason for concern: Turnovers — same as the Seahawks. Maye fumbled six times in the Patriots’ first two playoff matchups (losing three of them), and he also had a tipped-ball interception against the Chargers. So, the Patriots have been living dangerously at times with ball security. Youth is also a consideration. In addition to four undrafted free agents, the Patriots have all 11 draft picks from 2025 on their roster. The Super Bowl is a big stage for rookies. — Reiss
Every number tells the same story against the Seahawks’ defense: You cannot run on it. Opponent success rate on designed runs against Seattle is just 34%, the lowest in the NFL. Its EPA per play on those plays is minus-0.15, also the lowest. And opponents have managed minus-34 first downs over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, when rushing against Seattle. That’s by far the lowest in the league (next closest is the Texans at minus-14).
The Patriots are the best team in the most important part of football: passing offense (0.23 EPA per play). They also have the largest gap between their EPA per play on designed passes versus designed runs (0.28 difference), so it’s critical that they put the ball in Maye’s hands as much as possible in the Super Bowl. And they’ve done that up to this point with the second-highest pass rate over expected (plus-4%) in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
The Patriots played quarters coverage (four deep, three under) on 19.5% of opponent dropbacks during the playoffs. Here, the Seahawks can scheme for Smith-Njigba out of slot alignments to create vertical matchups versus New England safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson. Smith-Njigba caught 24 passes for 335 yards out of the slot this season. This is where coordinator Klint Kubiak can set up his shot plays for Darnold. — Bowen
Shaheed brings a unique skill set to the Seahawks’ offense. He’s explosive and capable of scoring whenever he touches the ball as a receiver, as a runner or on special teams. That ability was on display in the NFC Championship Game, when he hauled in a 51-yard reception. With wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Kenneth Walker III expected to command significant attention from New England, Shaheed could be in favorable matchups on the league’s biggest stage.
The answer is both. Darnold showed major improvements in the first half of the regular season and then regressed substantially as the Seahawks’ defense got even better. Remarkably, he finished the 2025 regular season with a lower QBR (56.0) than he had last season in Minnesota (57.3). Although he had a higher completion rate and was sacked fewer times, he also had more interceptions and fewer touchdowns.
And look at how Darnold’s stats are split this season: In Weeks 1-9, Darnold had a 77.9 QBR. At that point, he was second in the NFL behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. For Weeks 10-18, Darnold had a 37.4 QBR, which ranked 26th. Every part of Darnold’s performance declined in the second half of the season.
However, the two teams with easier schedules by average DVOA of opponents also made it to the Super Bowl. The 1991 Bills had the easiest schedule by DVOA (minus-14.8%), followed by the 1999 Rams (minus-14.5%).
We also have to consider the opponents these teams faced in the playoffs. The Patriots started out with the Chargers, who ranked 17th in DVOA. Houston was fourth and Denver was seventh.
However, the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams had easier playoff roads because they started out against nobody. (First-round byes are a lot easier than facing an average team such as the Chargers.) The 1991 Bills faced the Chiefs (fifth) and then the Broncos (15th). The 1999 Rams had it a little tougher, facing the Vikings (sixth) and the Buccaneers (10th).
The Patriots arguably had an easier path because of circumstances. For example, they beat the Broncos’ backup quarterback and played the Texans without wide receiver Nico Collins. But the Rams also faced Tampa Bay’s backup quarterback in the NFC Championship Game.
It’s worth noting two teams before DVOA ratings began: the 1970 Baltimore Colts and the 1972 Miami Dolphins. They faced the easiest regular-season schedules based on their opponents’ win-loss record. Baltimore’s opponents were at .352, Miami’s opponents at .357 and the 1999 Rams’ opponents at .363. This year’s Patriots opponents are at .429. — Schatz
Drake Maye seals the AFC Championship with gutsy scramble
If anyone had this Super Bowl quarterback matchup on their bingo card, I’d like to see it. What an improbable pairing — but certainly well-earned by both to make it here.
By the numbers, Maye has had a rough postseason. His two worst games of the season, by EPA per dropback and success rate, were the two most recent wins against the Broncos and Texans; the win over the Chargers in the wild-card round was also a below-average performance in both metrics. His sack rate has doubled in the playoffs, from 7.8% to 14.7%, and his completion percentage has gone from 9.1% above expectation to 5.8% below expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Of course, we have an easy way to explain this: He has played three excellent defenses, and it was snowing substantially against two of them (the Texans and Broncos). Maye hasn’t been at his best, and it’s fair to say that the combination of his first playoffs and the softer regular-season schedule has affected his game. Now, he gets the Seahawks’ defense, which only one quarterback has reliably beaten this season: Matthew Stafford, Maye’s competition for MVP.
Darnold is one of the highest ceiling/lowest floor quarterbacks in the league. Maye, a 23-year-old playing in the Super Bowl against an elite defense, has a similarly wide range of outcomes. Hold on to your butts! — Solak
Stephania Bell, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their defense will be the difference-maker here; the consistent, relentless pressure up front will ultimately force costly turnovers by the Patriots.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Seahawks. Their defense has the team speed and physical demeanor up front to limit Maye’s ability to create explosive plays.
Dan Graziano, national NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’ve been the best team all season, hiding in plain sight, and they’ll make life brutally tough on Maye, who has already been sacked 15 times this postseason.
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ offense isn’t good enough to beat this Seattle defense.
Eric Moody, fantasy and betting analyst: Seahawks. Seattle’s defense has been formidable all season, and defense still wins championships. The Patriots are averaging just 18.0 points per game this postseason, the fourth fewest by a team entering the Super Bowl and the fewest since 1979. Two of the three teams went on to lose the Super Bowl.
Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Seahawks have been No. 1 in my DVOA ratings for most of the second half of the season, and with that defense, I’m expecting a lower-scoring Super Bowl. Seahawks 24, Patriots 18.
Ben Solak, NFL analyst: Seahawks. The Patriots’ run against elite defenses ends with the true best unit of the season. With two weeks to plan, Macdonald will have too many tools to fluster and disrupt Maye.
Lindsey Thiry, national NFL reporter: Seahawks. They’re playing textbook complementary football on offense, defense and special teams. And they have standout playmakers who can change the game in a moment’s notice in each phase.
Seth Walder, NFL analyst: Seahawks. ESPN’s FPI, which considers a team’s play on a down-to-down basis all season, sees the Seahawks as being in a different class as the Patriots. I’m inclined to trust the numbers. Seahawks by double digits.
With two weeks until the big game, we’re taking an early look at the matchup. Lindsey Thiry sets it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Mike Reiss and Brady Henderson pick reasons for hope and concern for both teams. Seth Walder gives you some key stats, Matt Bowen picks a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X factor. Aaron Schatz answers big questions surrounding the final game of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup. And finally, we have early gut-reaction predictions from our experts.