Ben SolakJan 27, 2026, 06:35 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
play2:12Who should be the NFL MVP?The “Get Up” crew debates the NFL MVP race, with Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye in contention.
play2:36Stephen A.: Sam Darnold ‘shut everybody up, especially me’Stephen A. Smith gives Sam Darnold his flowers for beating the Los Angeles Rams and advancing to the Super Bowl.
play2:03Rex Ryan has some high praise for Mike VrabelThe “Get Up” crew lauds the job Mike Vrabel has done in turning around the Patriots.
Orlovsky: Sam Darnold shut up a lot of doubters (1:38)Dan Orlovsky praises Sam Darnold for silencing the doubters in the NFC Championship Game. (1:38)
Who should be the NFL MVP?The “Get Up” crew debates the NFL MVP race, with Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye in contention.
Stephen A.: Sam Darnold ‘shut everybody up, especially me’Stephen A. Smith gives Sam Darnold his flowers for beating the Los Angeles Rams and advancing to the Super Bowl.
Stephen A. Smith gives Sam Darnold his flowers for beating the Los Angeles Rams and advancing to the Super Bowl.
Rex Ryan has some high praise for Mike VrabelThe “Get Up” crew lauds the job Mike Vrabel has done in turning around the Patriots.
Lesson No. 1: Front offices can spend their way to a Super Bowl
Lesson No. 2: The middle class of QB contracts is a viable way to success
Lesson No. 3: It’s OK to hire defensive (or CEO) head coaches
Lesson No. 4: Teams should be chasing explosive plays
The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots are the matchup in Super Bowl LX. It has been settling in my head for more than a day, and I still can’t fully wrap my mind around it.
Both the Seahawks and the Patriots had preseason odds of 25-1 to win their respective conferences, making them the biggest underdogs to make a Super Bowl since the 2021 Bengals — tied for the fourth-biggest odds for any teams of the past 20 years. That they are here is a surprise and an achievement.
Had the preseason favorites made the Super Bowl — Bills vs. Eagles, Chiefs vs. Lions, etc. — there wouldn’t be too much worth examining in the “how” of their ascension. We knew how that would go … had it gone that way at all. Considering we instead got the Patriots and Seahawks, it’s worth unspooling not just the 2025 regular season but also last offseason. What lessons — if any — can we take to help us identify unlikely Super Bowl contenders in future seasons?
The exercise isn’t just for us on the outside; it’s also for teams on the inside. The Patriots won four games last season. Teams with four or fewer wins this season include the Raiders, Jets, Cardinals, Titans and Giants. Do you believe any of those teams could be a Super Bowl representative in just one year? I sure don’t. But it’s evidently possible, and all of those teams (and plenty more) will be examining just how the Patriots pulled it off.
Similarly, the Seahawks made a veteran quarterback change last offseason, replacing a generally successful veteran in Geno Smith not with a star rookie first-round pick but with another veteran in Sam Darnold. Many teams in NFL history have tried and failed at such a smooth exchange on the QB carousel, so how did the Seahawks succeed?
It’s always tempting to over index on the Super Bowl teams and the lessons that can be learned from them. A few funny bounces, and we’re examining the Rams and Broncos for lessons instead. But with the appropriate caution taken, here’s the actionable team-building wisdom I think is fair to glean from the stunning playoff runs of the Seahawks and Patriots, who will face off in the Super Bowl on Feb. 8.
Last offseason, the Patriots were that big-spending team. They doled out $364 million worth of contract value in the 2025 free agent period, and $104 million went to Milton Williams, who received a top-five defensive tackle contract despite having never been a full-time starter with the Eagles. The Patriots stole Williams out from under the Panthers’ nose with that enormous offer.
This is often how teams get in trouble in free agency — getting into bidding wars for imperfect players, and all free agents are imperfect players. (Were they perfect players, they would not hit free agency at all.) But Williams hit in a big way, ending the regular season third in pressure rate for all defensive tackles (second is teammate Christian Barmore, who is having a career-best season playing beside Williams).
The “Get Up” crew debates the NFL MVP race, with Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye in contention.
Seattle’s numbers are getting juiced a little bit. They spent just over $200 million in 2025 free agency, but $100 million of that was in one contract: Sam Darnold. The only other significant deals they signed were to get receiver Cooper Kupp ($45 million) and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence ($32.5 million). Both contracts are good examples of how smart teams spend in free agency — filling critical roles for the systems the coaches want to run.
Lawrence, meanwhile, has stuffed the stat sheet more obviously. In 2025, he had six sacks, 20 QB hits, 11 TFLs, three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and two touchdowns. The advanced data loves him, especially as a run defender. Among edge rushers, only Maxx Crosby generated more EPA on run stuffs than Lawrence — and he did it on twice as many snaps.
Without a heavy-handed defensive end who can play two gaps and slow runs down behind the line of scrimmage, Mike Macdonald’s defensive structure … just doesn’t work. It cannot exist. The math doesn’t math. The Seahawks sprinted to sign Lawrence in free agency despite his age and questionable pass rush value because he had the exact skillset that would unlock the system for the other 10 players on the field.
That said, there is perhaps a more substantive lesson to be learned from the Seahawks’ free agent period, specifically.
Quarterback contracts have ballooned enormously over the past 10 years. We can look at pure dollar figures to see this. The five biggest quarterback cap hits this season average out to $46.2 million. Six years ago, in 2019, that number was $28.3 million. We’ve seen an increase of almost $20 million in that short period of time — and remember, that’s through the COVID-19-affected cap adjustment of 2021.
But critically, he was able to do it without sacrificing the ceiling of a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. You had to squint to see it — Darnold was coming off his first good season as a starter in a near-perfect environment, and even then he floundered against top defenses. But he could do enough … much like Jimmy Garoppolo could do enough for the 49ers in 2019, or Jared Goff for the Rams in 2018, or Nick Foles for the Eagles in 2017.
Quarterback contracting becomes a tricky needle to thread. The ideal Super Bowl quarterback is a veteran on a cheap contract who has big-game experience and enough talent to power a championship offense. You know, a totally fictitious ideal.
Stephen A.: Sam Darnold ‘shut everybody up, especially me’
But in Darnold, this is exactly what the Seahawks went for last offseason. Darnold was the earliest-drafted and most physically talented QB available in free agency. He had success in one scheme, and Seattle hired a coach in Klint Kubiak who both ran that offense and had worked with Darnold in the past. And because Darnold came with so much uncertainty, the Seahawks got him for a cheap, team-friendly deal.
Time and time again at this time of year, we hear the same concern from fan bases of teams hiring a new coach: We have to hire an offensive guy! Otherwise, any good offensive coordinator we hire will just get scooped up as a head coach next year.
Sure, maybe … but what a great problem to have. Ask any Seahawks fan right now how sad they are that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is almost certainly going to be a head coach somewhere else in a month. They’re going to the Super Bowl. It’s tomorrow’s problem.
Now, some necessary caveats. More offensive head coaches have made it to the Super Bowl in recent seasons than defensive head coaches; there are simply more offensive head coaches than there are defensive ones. And of course it is a big deal that the Seahawks are (likely) losing Kubiak this offseason and will have to fill his shoes. It could theoretically be the one Jenga block that collapses their tower in 2026.
But the idea that offensive coaches are so precious that they must be hired and protected at all costs is codswallop. You know who is precious? Mike Macdonald. Hired into a division with the league’s preeminent offensive minds in Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, Macdonald went 4-2 this season, including playoffs, on the back of some impressive defense performances. The 2025 Seahawks are the most effective run defense from two-high shells that we’ve seen in the past five seasons.
On the other side of the field two Sundays from now will be Mike Vrabel. He is not a defensive schemer, and he does not call plays. Now that guys such as John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin were out of jobs this offseason, Vrabel might be the platonic ideal of the CEO head coach. He doesn’t bring a prepackaged system with him but instead is the tip of the spear of weekly planning, in-game decision-making and situational management.
The “Get Up” crew lauds the job Mike Vrabel has done in turning around the Patriots.
Remember all the players from the old guard whom Vrabel cast aside, as well: Kyle Dugger, Cole Strange, Jabrill Peppers, Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise Jr. That’s not even considering the recent draftees — acquired with decent draft capital — on whom he cut bait: Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, Layden Robinson. The turnover on this roster has been substantial.
Many CEO coaches aspire to this level of successful roster reimagining. They jettison the old, install the new … and immediately faceplant. Vrabel backed up his dramatic moves with immediate results, though. All of those new free agent acquisitions and promoted draft picks contributed immediately. That’s the sign of a coach who understands players — what motivates them, and how to best set them up for success.