Jeff BorzelloCloseJeff BorzelloBasketball recruiting insiderJeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He has joined ESPN in 2014.Follow on X and Myron MedcalfCloseMyron MedcalfESPN Staff WriterMyron Medcalf covers college basketball for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2011.Follow on XMultiple AuthorsJan 29, 2026, 09:15 AM ET
play1:08Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of LouisvilleCameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville
play1:16Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game HighlightsHouston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
play0:24Caleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNCCaleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNC
Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of LouisvilleCameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville
Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game HighlightsHouston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
The start of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season feels like years ago. Before it tipped off, we ranked 80 teams based on how we expected them to end the year, including whether they would be real factors in the NCAA tournament.
Some of those projections held strong. UConn still looks like it could capture its third national title in four tries. Duke and Texas Tech have shaped into the Final Four contenders we forecasted them to be. And Nebraska has lived up to its billing as a comeback candidate, following up last season’s 7-13 Big Ten run to win its first 20 games of this campaign. The Cornhuskers have a real chance to be the men’s basketball version of Indiana football — a turnaround champion.
There were also misses. Arizona as just a second-weekend threat? The Wildcats have spent seven straight weeks atop the AP Top 25. We were also low on Vanderbilt, pinning the Commodores as a bubble team; they won their first 16 games.
There was no way to know then what we know now. But we did leverage the information we’ve gathered to this point to take another shot at ranking teams into their proper categories. This time, we’ve reduced the list to just 47.
Jump to: Title favorites | Final Four contenders Sweet 16 threats | Final Four or first-round exit? Can win a game | Cinderellas
Each of these teams cracked this tier at different points during the nonconference stretch of the season.
The NCAA tournament is often defined by the performances of players who step up in high-stakes moments, which means success in March depends on talent capable of shifting into a higher gear. The teams in this tier certainly are not without their flaws, but they could close the gap between them and the national championship favorites if their respective stars reach their ceilings in the weeks ahead.
Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville
Cameron Boozer’s 19-point double-double leads Duke rout of Louisville
Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game Highlights
Michigan State Spartans Florida Gators Arkansas Razorbacks Kansas Jayhawks Vanderbilt Commodores Virginia Cavaliers Alabama Crimson Tide
This tier is full of teams that have notable strengths but glaring weaknesses that could prevent them from advancing beyond the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight despite being capable of reaching those second-weekend rounds.
We know what Kansas is capable of when Darryn Peterson (21.6 points per game) is available. The Jayhawks are a top-15 defensive team with the luxury of a high-level star, but Peterson’s injury concerns could be an issue if they linger into March (he’s missed 10 of their 20 games so far).
On paper, BYU has arguably all the talent a head coach could want. AJ Dybantsa is in the running for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft. Richie Saunders is one of the top shooters in the country. And Rob Wright III is averaging 5.2 assists for a top-10 offense. Yet, the Cougars are also 13th in turnover rate in the Big 12, surrendering the ball on 17% of their possessions.
Tom Izzo loves this Michigan State roster and Jeremy Fears Jr. (8.9 assists per game) is the right leader for a team that’s playing some of the best defense in America. The Spartans have also committed turnovers on one-fifth of their possessions in Big Ten play.
Florida has gotten its act together over the past six weeks in a reversal that has rebooted talk of a back-to-back national championship run for the Gators. But their lineups that include Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee together are rated 126th in overall efficiency among the two-player lineups in the SEC, per EvanMiya.
Darius Acuff Jr. is a projected NBA draft lottery pick who leads Arkansas and the best offense in the SEC. John Calipari’s problem? Opposing conference opponents have made 57% of their shots inside the arc against the Razorbacks, who rank 15th out of 16 SEC teams in that metric at KenPom.
St. John’s Red Storm Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals North Carolina Tar Heels Tennessee Volunteers
We haven’t quite figured out this group yet, despite being nearly three months into the season. They could lose on the first day of the NCAA tournament, or they could be among the four teams left standing in Indianapolis. Nothing would surprise us.
St. John’s had a rocky first two months, with inconsistent guard play and an atypical Rick Pitino defense. But with six wins in a row entering the week and better role allocation in recent weeks, we’re not counting out this preseason top-five team.
Kentucky was considered the most disappointing team in the country when it was 5-4, and again when it was 9-6; then the Wildcats rattled off five wins in a row prior to Tuesday’s 25-point road loss to Vanderbilt. Injuries have really hindered Mark Pope’s team, but what if Kam Williams and Jayden Quaintance come back? The Wildcats would get an offensive boost from Williams’ shooting while Quaintance would be an immediate upgrade defensively.
Louisville will hope to get things rolling again now that Mikel Brown Jr. has returned from the lower back injury that kept him out for more than a month. The Brown and Ryan Conwell backcourt is as good as it gets. Even with the star freshman available, however, the Cardinals have only one win over a surefire NCAA tournament team.
North Carolina showed its ceiling and floor over the weekend when it trailed by 16 against Virginia and couldn’t guard anyone … and then came back to win, overpowering the Cavaliers with size and shotmaking. Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar are an elite post duo, but Hubert Davis needs consistent point guard play and defense.
Caleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNCCaleb Wilson throws down two-handed slam for UNC
Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee has typically had elite defenses and been prone to droughts offensively. Not this season’s team — although neither unit has been particularly impressive in SEC play. There’s still potential with Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament leading the way, and the Vols showed it at Alabama last weekend. And if the defense turns around to play at the level of previous Barnes-coached teams, suddenly the Vols can go toe-to-toe with most teams in the country. — Borzello
This is a deep group, but all of these teams have shown flashes of being able to win a game in the NCAA tournament — even if some find themselves sweating on Selection Sunday.
Some have already shown they can beat high-level teams on a given night: Auburn won at Florida over the weekend and has wins over Arkansas and St. John’s. Wisconsin handed Michigan its lone loss thus far, in Ann Arbor. UCLA has been mostly inconsistent, especially against good teams, but beat Purdue and has won four of five entering the week. And Georgia blew out Arkansas.
Others have elite players who are good enough to carry them to a win: Iowa has Bennett Stirtz, NC State has Darrion Williams. Ohio State has plenty of talent in its starting five, and Bruce Thornton is a bona fide star. Boopie Miller puts SMU in this group as well.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks Murray State Racers McNeese Cowboys Liberty Flames Yale Bulldogs UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Over the past three NCAA tournaments, 10 teams outside the five high-major conferences — that were also double-digit seeds — won at least one game. The teams on this list all have the potential to join them, beginning with Miami (OH), a team that has won its first 21 games of the season. The RedHawks have made 39% of their 3-point attempts and 62% of their shots inside the arc, both top-20 marks nationally.
Under first-year head coach Bill Armstrong, McNeese has forced turnovers on 25% of its opponents’ turnovers, exceeding the tally of last season’s Cowboys team that reached the second round under Will Wade.
Murray State guard Javon Jackson (17.0 PPG) is one of the best mid-major players in America. UNC-Wilmington has seven players averaging at least nine points per game, depth that could make the team dangerous in March. Liberty is shooting 52% from the field, No. 2 in the country. And Yale has made 41% of its 3-point attempts, also second in the nation.
Arizona currently sits at 21-0 after beating BYU in Provo on Monday, leading by as many as 19 points and looking utterly dominant for most of the game. Tommy Lloyd has a clear national championship favorite, with an ideal balance of youth and experience, guards and bigs and the best defense he has had since taking over in Tucson — by far. The Wildcats can beat teams in different ways, with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries anchoring the perimeter, and Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka controlling the paint. Ivan Kharchenkov’s emergence as one of the elite defenders in the Big 12 takes the Wildcats to another level at that end of the floor, too.
Michigan, meanwhile, suffered its first loss of the season in early January after opening the season with 14 straight wins, many of them by 30-plus points. Dusty May has leaned heavily on size, starting three players 6-foot-9 or taller, but the Wolverines are still able to defend as well — and get up and down the floor as fast — as any team in the country. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara form an elite frontcourt, while Elliot Cadeau has made strides as a shooter and decision-maker.