Tim BontempsCloseTim BontempsESPN Senior WriterTim Bontemps is a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com who covers the league and what’s impacting it on and off the court, including trade deadline intel, expansion and his MVP Straw Polls. You can find Tim alongside Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on The Hoop Collective podcast.Follow on X and Brian WindhorstCloseBrian WindhorstESPN Senior WriterESPN.com NBA writer since 2010 Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years Author of two booksFollow on XMultiple AuthorsJan 30, 2026, 07:45 AM ET
Why Stephen A. wants to see Steph and Giannis team up (2:05)Stephen A. Smith details why he would like to see Giannis Antetokounmpo join the Golden State Warriors ahead of the NBA trade deadline. (2:05)
The NBA season is past its halfway point, with the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend fast approaching, but the Eastern Conference remains wide open and full of questions.
But the situation in the East hasn’t allowed the Milwaukee Bucks to remain in contention with Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s why, as ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Wednesday, the two sides could be heading toward a divorce after more than 12 seasons together. But above the 12th-place Bucks, several East teams will enter April with legit Finals aspirations.
After speaking with league insiders throughout this week, our latest trip around the NBA features an East reset. What lies ahead for the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and other contenders? What are the cases for and against each as the true conference favorite? And how could those franchises — and Milwaukee — attack the Thursday trade deadline?
“There are several teams who can make a case to themselves that they can win,” one longtime advance scout who focuses on the East said. “But none of the cases are ironclad.”
While the race for top contender in the East is still up for debate, the biggest storyline in the conference — and the NBA — is not.
In conversations with sources around the league over the past 48 hours, the widespread expectation is that the Giannis saga will drag out until at least Thursday. Then, Bucks general manager Jon Horst and his staff will have to decide whether to make a move now or wait until the offseason.
“I’m just not sure why it wouldn’t make sense to wait,” an East scout said. “They can see where the draft [lottery] is, and survey their options then.”
But Milwaukee is taking calls, surveying the trade value for its superstar forward in a way the franchise, as one source said, never has before.
Antetokounmpo’s calf injury could push Milwaukee to wait until the offseason. He is out at least a month because of a calf strain, removing one argument for a deadline deal: the potential for Antetokounmpo to play the Bucks out of prime lottery position for their 2026 first-round pick. (That’s the same reason, sources said, that trade talks for the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis have cooled from several weeks ago.)
As a result, the league — from teams already interested, such as the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat and New York Knicks, to others that could potentially join the fray for a top-five player — will continue to see what happens before the deadline.
As for the state of the East outside of Milwaukee, here’s a look at the cases for and against each contender to reach the Finals, starting with the team that has led the conference for months.
The case for: Detroit is second in the league in defensive rating (No. 1 since Dec. 1) and net rating, behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Thanks to a 15-2 start, Detroit has been the runaway leader atop the conference and currently enjoys a six-game advantage over the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. Cade Cunningham has become a bona fide star and an MVP candidate, the leader of a tough-minded, physical group with a clear identity.
The case against: Despite surpassing many leaguewide expectations, the Celtics are still thin. That’s what happens when Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet and Al Horford all leave in one offseason with little in return. Counting on Tatum is no sure thing, and those impactful young players have yet to prove themselves in the postseason.
The case for: Raw talent. The Knicks entered 2025-26 as conference co-favorites, and they have spent chunks of the season looking like it, including a run to the NBA Cup title in December. Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby give New York the versatile and defensive wing core every Finals contender covets, and Jalen Brunson is a maestro with the ball in clutch time. New York has the No. 2 offense, carried by elite 3-point shooting numbers (fourth in makes, third in percentage).
Trade deadline synopsis: The Knicks, as Charania has reported, have been interested in adding Antetokounmpo since the summer. The question is whether they have enough to get him. The best path to a trade like this is draft capital, which New York hardly has available. The Knicks could send several rotation players instead, but that’s not the premium value Milwaukee is chasing in a potential Antetokounmpo deal.
Another solution would require a third team to facilitate. Moving Anunoby could return the young players and/or draft picks that Milwaukee covets. Anunoby has never been named an All-Star, but his acquisition could be similar to what Derrick White — another fantastic two-way player — provided Boston after arriving from San Antonio. Similar to White, Anunoby could be the finishing player for a title contender and would drive plenty of interest if he were made available.
“Dolan said he thinks this is a championship team,” one West GM said. “The front office has to decide whether they still believe that is true.”
The case for: Donovan Mitchell is having a career season, and although it’s understandable that he wasn’t named an All-Star starter because Cleveland has underachieved in the first half, it’s not fair. Mitchell has filled gaps everywhere, including recently taking over starting point guard duties because Darius Garland is out. The Cavs can also be a strong defensive team in spurts, and their ceiling, which they have reached at times this season, is among the league’s elite.
“Cleveland is active [in trade talks],” one East executive said. “We’re not sure what they’re trying to set up — and they may not be either — but they’re active.”
The case for: When Joel Embiid is right, few players are more dominant offensively. The former MVP big man is starting to resemble that form, creating a feeling within the franchise that the 76ers could be a threat in the playoffs. Tyrese Maxey, who was named an All-Star starter, continues to blossom into a superstar. Paul George has settled in as a third or fourth option, and rookie guard VJ Edgecombe is living up to his billing as the No. 3 pick.
The case against: The injury risk is massive in Philly, and predicting the health of Embiid and George, 35, into the spring is a fool’s errand. The 76ers are also small across the rotation despite the 7-foot Embiid manning the middle. George or Kelly Oubre Jr. will often step into a small-ball 4 role, while the talented guard quartet of Maxey, Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain is average height or shorter for their position.
With so many questions facing the top few East teams, several other franchises would argue they, too, have a chance to make a run. That’s especially true if any of the next three make a major deadline move.
The loss to the Knicks, however, highlighted why this team doesn’t rate higher. Toronto, which is No. 21 on offense, is in the bottom 10 in the league in 3-point makes, attempts and percentage. It’s difficult to contend in the modern NBA on such low volume from beyond the arc.
“There are only a few teams out there who have full control of their drafts,” one veteran East executive said. “That makes [the Raptors] a buyer if they want. But when you look at their contracts [$165 million to their top five players next year], they’re going to need those picks.”
And that is where Antetokounmpo’s future becomes a factor. As Charania has reported, Miami is a strong suitor for the two-time MVP forward. Adebayo and Antetokounmpo share an agent in Octagon’s Alex Saratsis, and the Heat’s front office, led by Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg, has made more star-level deals than any team over the past 30 years. The biggest challenge this time around is Miami’s limitations of draft assets and available young players.
The Heat have just two tradable first-round picks, Herro (a Milwaukee native), Kel’el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but not the premium trade package it could require to land Antetokounmpo. Don’t expect the front office to do much before the deadline. It will either turn its attention to the offseason if Antetokounmpo remains a Buck or prepare for summer 2027, when Miami could have substantial cap space.
Orlando was projected as an under-the-radar Finals threat after signing Paolo Banchero to a max extension and acquiring scoring guard Desmond Bane from Memphis for four first-round picks. But Orlando’s offense is still 19th in the league — if that holds, however, the Magic would be inside the top 20 for the first time in 15 years — with a defense that is 15th after finishing in the top three each of the past two seasons.
Rival teams are watching to see if Orlando — either now or in the summer — looks to shed some long-term money, particularly because the Magic will also be headed into extension talks with guard Anthony Black.
The case against: Championship-level teams typically have two reliable perimeter playmaking options. The past few title teams, for example, featured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams; Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown; Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic; Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Detroit has Cunningham and no other reliable scoring threats. Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff also has to show that he can get his team past the second round of the playoffs. The Pistons have a young roster that has yet to win a playoff series. Can it go from that to winning three straight series? History would say otherwise. “It’s just hard to say Detroit [will make the Finals] until they prove it,” a Western Conference executive said.