The Australian Open women’s final will showcase world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against No. 5 Elena Rybakina on Saturday. Sabalenka has won two titles in Melbourne — but it was Rybakina who most recently defeated Sabalenka, when the two played in the year-end WTA Finals.
D’Arcy Maine: For Sabalenka, who is playing in her fourth consecutive final in Melbourne, it’s going to come down to one thing, and one thing only: Nerves.
Their last meeting at the final of the year-end tour championships in November could provide something of a blueprint, as Rybakina had 13 aces and won 72.3% of her first serves to clinch the title. She’ll need a similar performance Saturday to earn her second major title.
We saw the blueprint of how to beat Sabalenka in an Australian Open final 12 months ago. Big-hitting Madison Keys matched the power and aggression coming from the other side of the net and continually frustrated the world No. 1.
Michaels: Sabalenka was my not-so-bold prediction before the tournament began, so it would be silly to jump ship now. Having said that, this final feels like a genuine 50-50 and you can make strong cases for both women hoisting the trophy.
You get the feeling that experience may very well be the deciding factor. This is Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive Australian Open final and seventh consecutive final at a hard-court major. Meanwhile, Rybakina hasn’t played in a slam final since falling to Sabalenka in the decider at Melbourne Park in 2023. Since then, and before this tournament, her best return at a hard-court major was reaching the fourth round. Sabalenka in three tight, gripping sets.
Her play has been incredible throughout the fortnight and the season so far, and she carries an 11-match win streak into the final. Not only that, but Sabalenka has yet to drop a set in 2026. Clearly, she has the game to win her fifth major title and third at the Australian Open, but she has struggled with emotions in major finals before (see: last year’s Australian Open and French Open) and sometimes seems to get clouded by the weight of the moment. She turned things around while competing for the trophy at the US Open last season and will need to find that same mental strength and clarity Saturday to secure the win.
Jarryd Barca: Sabalenka’s blueprint isn’t too complicated, the test is executing it under pressure and expectation — something she failed to do last year. She’s the world’s best player and a two-time champion in Melbourne, not to mention her seven major titles have all come on hard court. She has won 20 of her past 21 matches here for a reason, and needs to remember that, own that and lean into it. Tactically, attacking Rybakina’s second serve and refusing to let her settle into comfortable holds and short rallies is also going to be key. If Sabalenka can do that, apply early pressure and pull her opponent into exchanges where her powerful shotmaking can take over, that will allow her to be aggressive and take time away. Above all, she needs to be herself and stamp her authority early.
Maine: No woman has won more matches since Wimbledon than Rybakina, and it’s been impressive to watch her rediscover her form and confidence after some challenges on and off the court. Much of her success can be attributed to her serve, and she will need to utilize that strength as much as possible against Sabalenka. It’s been shaky at times this tournament — specifically against Iga Swiatek in the quarters and Jessica Pegula in the semis — but she can’t afford such lapses against Sabalenka, who can otherwise match her powerful hitting and aggressive playing style. Rybakina’s first serve could be the key, and she’ll need a high percentage in that category to pull off the victory.
Michaels: So much of Rybakina’s success at this tournament, and any other for that matter, hinges on her serve. It’s one of the greatest forces in the women’s game today, and one that has bought her a plethora of cheap points throughout her career. Rybakina has struck a tournament-best 41 aces en route to the final, almost double the amount Sabalenka has managed. And it’s not through having played more tennis, with Rybakina also advancing to Saturday’s showpiece match without having dropped a single set. She’s also won 74% of points when her first serve has landed in play.
Rybakina possesses all of the tools to repeat the dose.