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Kevin PeltonJan 31, 2026, 11:05 PM ETClose Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE systemFollow on XMultiple Authors
Cavs deal for Ellis, Schroder to boost playoff push
The NBA trade deadline is closing in — it’s at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday — and we finally have a second trade of the year (and grades for both deals).
The first featured the Atlanta Hawks sending star point guard Trae Young to the Washington Wizards for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert.
Now, three weeks later, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls completed a swap that saw the Cavs add Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis, the Kings acquire De’Andre Hunter and the Bulls take on Dario Saric and two draft picks.
We’re grading every deal up until the deadline, breaking down the ramifications for all teams and players involved. Let’s get into the latest move:
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What this deal means for the Cavaliers: Ellis improbably became one of the most in-demand players at the deadline while playing a smaller role than last season because of his minimum salary and combined with a 3-and-D skill set that fits better on a contending team than it did in Sacramento.
In part, Ellis’ role has shrunk because he hasn’t shot the ball as well as last season, when he hit an effective 64% of his shots when accounting for the added value of 3-point attempts. This season, he has slumped to 37% on 3s and just 46% inside the arc, both his lowest marks in a full season. (He played just 71 minutes in 2022-23 as an undrafted rookie on a two-way contract.)
Over the full sample of his career, Ellis is at 42% on 3s and 56.5% for 2s for 61% effective shooting that makes him one of the league’s most efficient perimeter role players. At 6-foot-4, he also has the size to defend either backcourt spot and particularly excels on the ball with his quickness. He has defended the opposing player who brings the ball up on 24% of his defensive possessions this season, according to GeniusIQ tracking.
I particularly like how Ellis will fit alongside Donovan Mitchell, who has played nearly as much point guard this season as he has off the ball as Darius Garland has experienced toe injuries. Ellis can free Mitchell from having to defend ball handlers in those lineups while also spacing the floor at the other end.
It’s less clear how Schroder fits in, particularly if Garland is able to get healthy. The Cavaliers are adding Ellis and Schroder to a backcourt that includes All-Stars in Garland and Mitchell, an ace outside shooter in Sam Merrill, a capable backup point guard in Craig Porter Jr. and a veteran in Lonzo Ball. It’s unlikely Schroder will play anywhere near as much as with the Kings, for whom he averaged 26.4 minutes per game despite losing his starting job to Russell Westbrook.
From a financial standpoint, Cleveland has significantly cut its luxury tax bill, saving nearly $40 million in tax payments alone by rerouting Saric to Chicago. Perhaps more importantly, the Cavaliers have moved within striking distance of going under the second-apron threshold, a necessity if they want to aggregate salaries before the deadline.
Before, accomplishing that might have required shedding Hunter’s full $23.3 million salary, which was too big for any team to take into cap space or a trade exception. By cutting nearly $7 million in salary, Cleveland could now duck the second apron by dealing either Schroder ($14.1 million) or Max Strus ($15.9 million) without taking back contracts, giving the franchise more options to pursue a star.
Down the road, Cleveland’s roster could get more expensive if the team re-signs Ellis. Schroder will make $10 million less than Hunter for 2026-27, which might not cover Ellis’ starting salary on an extension or a new contract as an unrestricted free agent. Schroder also has $4.35 million of his 2027-28 salary guaranteed, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks, while Hunter’s contract will be up after next season.
The most realistic way for the Cavaliers to save money remains Mitchell leaving as an unrestricted free agent in 2027, when he holds a $53.8 million player option. That’s the scenario they hope to avoid. Strengthening a team that is tied for fourth in the Eastern Conference after finishing atop the standings a season ago is the best way to keep Mitchell. This trade is a step forward in that regard — and, perhaps, a step toward a bigger one by Thursday’s deadline.
What this deal means for the Kings: This deal is a tough reminder of the Kings’ missteps last summer, when they were still hoping to compete for the postseason before new general manager Scott Perry shifted his focus to building something more sustainable, as he described last month to Andscape’s Marc J. Spears.
In order to add Schroder as an unrestricted free agent via sign-and-trade without pushing into the luxury tax, Sacramento had to cut salary. That meant dealing Jonas Valanciunas to the Denver Nuggets for Saric, a move that backfired when Valanciunas subsequently signaled a desire to walk away from his contract for an offer from Greek power Panathinaikos. (The Nuggets, who wanted Valanciunas, ended up denying that request.)
Saric ultimately played just five games with the Kings, while Schroder has started only twice since Nov. 12. (Those ended up being Schroder’s final two games with Sacramento, ironically, with Westbrook sidelined by a foot contusion.)
Adding those two newcomers into a deal for Hunter ended up costing the Kings the two second-round picks in this trade, which are instead headed to the Bulls despite Ellis being the single most valuable player who changed teams.
On the plus side, Sacramento is getting Hunter at a low point in his value. A year ago, the Cavaliers gave up three second-round picks and a pair of first-round swaps in order to add him for the stretch run. At the time, he was shooting a career-high 39% from 3-point range, and he improved after joining Cleveland to shot 46% in the playoffs. This season, Hunter is hitting a career-low 31% of 3s and has seen his playing time decline to 22.4 minutes per game in January.
A 37% career 3-point shooter, Hunter should be more accurate with the Kings, and his ability to play both forward spots is a good fit for a team short on frontcourt size. Adding his $24.9 million salary for 2026-27 will push Sacramento into the luxury tax for now, but the franchise will have plenty of opportunity to cut its payroll between now and then. In the worst-case scenario, the partial guarantee on DeMar DeRozan’s salary ($10 million) should get the Kings safely under the tax line.
If Hunter plays well enough, he could go back to being a deadline pickup for a contending team next year.
Sitting more than $13 million below the tax line this season, Chicago could use the remaining portion of a trade exception created in yet another Bulls-Kings-Spurs three-team deal (the one sending Zach LaVine to Sacramento almost exactly a year ago) in order to take on Saric’s $5.4 million salary.
The only cost for Chicago is a roster spot. The Bulls will have to waive a player to add Saric, with little-used guard Jevon Carter a likely candidate in the last season of his contract. If they don’t include Saric in a subsequent trade, a buyout seems likely after the deadline, leaving them with a couple of extra second-round picks for their trouble.
What this deal means for the Hawks: Less than five years ago, the Hawks reached the 2021 conference finals behind a star-making performance from Young, who averaged 28.8 PPG and 9.5 APG in the playoffs at age 22. It seemed like the start of a run for Atlanta, which had just one key player older than 27. Instead, the Young-era Hawks had already peaked.
Quickly eliminated from the playoffs in 2022 and 2023, Atlanta has yet to get back. The Hawks opened this season with high expectations after adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porzingis, but Atlanta went 2-8 in the 10 games Young played this season, leading to this franchise-altering deal.
The Hawks defending better with Young on the bench is certainly nothing new. That’s been the case throughout his career. According to Cleaning the Glass data, which filters out garbage time, 2022-23 is the only season the Hawks haven’t allowed at least two points per 100 possessions more with Young on the court than on the bench.
Historically, that’s been counterbalanced by the enormous boost Young provides the Atlanta offense. Flipping that stat, 2023-24 is the only season Atlanta hasn’t scored at least five more points per 100 possessions offensively with Young on the court. That actually hasn’t changed at all this season, despite the emergence of Jalen Johnson as an All-Star. The Hawks are scoring 9.2 more points per 100 possessions with Young, which ranks in the 95th percentile leaguewide.
The issue is twofold: Atlanta is defending better with Young on the bench, and much worse with him on the court.
The latter factor is probably random noise. Based on GeniusIQ’s quantified shot probability measure (qSP), which measures the expected effective field goal percentage (eFG%) given the location and type of shot, distance of nearby defenders and player ability, Hawks opponents get slightly better shots when Young plays. Atlanta’s qSP on defense goes from 54% without Young, which would rank 12th in the league, to 56.6% with him. That would rank 29th, ahead of only the New Orleans Pelicans.
Still, the actual shooting difference without Young is more than three times larger. Hawks opponents shoot a 63% eFG% with Young on the court and just 54% with him on the bench. The shot quality differential is more in line with Young’s typical defensive impact, and the shotmaking is likely a fluke.