Otega Oweh rocks the rim with flush (0:23)Otega Oweh rocks the rim with flush (0:23)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means it’s time to turn our attention to the biggest burning question: Will your team be in or out? It has roughly six weeks until Selection Sunday to answer that query. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ.
Michigan Wolverines Nebraska Cornhuskers Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans
The Buckeyes are right on the bubble at No. 45 in the national résumé rankings, but a 10-point loss at Wisconsin did them no favors; they now rank 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They have a single Quadrant 1 win (at Northwestern in early December) and are projected by the BPI to fall just short of 19 wins on the season — meaning they’re projected to be sub-.500 from here on, which explains why they’re not as sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season.
If the season ended today, USC would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries comfortably, as they are a top-40 team in the résumé rankings and sit seventh in the conference in that regard. The models are less bullish (45% at-large), however, because the Trojans are only a borderline top-50 team in the predictive ratings and have just a single win against the BPI top 50 (Wisconsin). With five losses in their past nine outings, they can’t let what was once a 12-1 start unravel further.
Most of the models in the forecast consensus consider the Aggies to be in outstanding shape (95% or higher) for an at-large bid, particularly after beating Georgia by 15 in Athens on Saturday. They are projected by the BPI to eclipse 22 wins, which ought to be enough to make the tournament when the smoke clears. They’re still tied for eighth out of what could be nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC in the résumé ranking average, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.
The Tigers recently went cold, losing four of six to drop to 11th in the league in the résumé average, though they did beat Mississippi State on Saturday. They are projected to finish with 18.5 wins, though they do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if their résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins might be easier said than done.
The Wolfpack have won six of the past seven games — including their sole Quadrant 1A victory in overtime at Clemson — and are a top-25 team nationally in the predictive ratings, which bodes well for their momentum. They are closer to the bubble than their 34th rank nationally in résumé average (seventh in the ACC) indicates, but the models expect them to keep winning.
The Mustangs entered Saturday’s game at Louisville in fairly similar shape as the Cardinals and Wolfpack, but the road loss dropped SMU back some. The Mustangs still rank sixth in the conference (28th nationally) on their résumé, which is a great foundation. And while they are seventh in the ACC (36th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 72nd-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing their status quo above the bubble.
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Despite low tournament chances for much of early conference play, the Cowboys sneak in here on the basis of their No. 53 placement in the résumé ranking, which does rank eighth in the conference (slightly ahead of TCU). The models are low on Oklahoma State because its predictive ranking (No. 63) is so much worse than TCU’s, and the Cowboys face the Big 12’s second-toughest remaining schedule. But Steve Lutz’s team could make noise with some upsets.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons — and how much the committee should value head-to-head wins versus overall résumé quality. The Broncos’ chances are roughly a coin flip at this point — at No. 48 in the résumé rankings with 61% consensus at-large odds — but they will get another crack at Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga later this month.
Iowa’s résumé rankings are all over the place, ranging from the high 40s in KPI to the low 20s in NET, averaging out to 30th nationally. That’s still on the right side of the bubble, with some room to spare. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January and with Sunday’s 18-point victory at Oregon. They’re even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in at 22nd in our average of performance ratings, which raises their potential going forward. But their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 70th to 17th nationally from here on out, according to the BPI.
Indiana is here as the darling of the forecast models, which average out to a 91% conditional at-large probability despite a relatively similar top-line résumé ranking (No. 42) to other Big Ten bubble candidates below. What the Hoosiers have going for them are more signature wins — two versus Quadrant 1A — and plenty of talent, as they are in the top 30 in every power rating we’re tracking. The latter factor leads them to be projected for more wins by season’s end (20.2) than any of the conference’s other non-locks aside from Iowa.
The Huskies might be downgraded to the “long shots” category soon, but we’ll slot them here for now on the basis of a 23% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-7 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (66th nationally). But they also have a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season with a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Saturday. There’s a ton of work left to do, but Washington could run up wins against the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule.
Just as a 25-point loss at Vanderbilt seemed to dampen Kentucky’s recent hot streak, Saturday’s victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville elevated coach Mark Pope’s team back into “should be in” status. The Wildcats’ résumé (three Quadrant 1A wins) is on par with the rest of the SEC’s candidates in this category, and they have a 94% at-large chance in the model consensus. But only two teams in the country are projected for a tougher schedule over the rest of the season, which could make for an interesting ride.
The Bulldogs seemed to have risen above the bubble fray for a time, but recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds. At No. 35 in the résumé rankings overall (tied for eighth in the SEC) and with a trio of wins against the BPI top 50, they might not need to worry too much. But the Dawgs’ schedule-strength leap (from No. 70 to this point to No. 13 from here on) is among the biggest of any high-major team, and they’re projected to lose more remaining games than they win.
Despite ranking in the mid-30s nationally in the predictive metrics, Sean Miller’s team is staring at a tough numbers game already after a handful of early defeats in SEC play (including Wednesday’s loss at Auburn). The Longhorns are 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (52nd nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 61st hardest looking back to 32nd hardest going forward. Four Quadrant 1 wins (including two for Quadrant 1A) are helpful, but they’ll have to compile even more while hoping the NCAA accommodates 10 SEC teams for the Dance.
The Golden Bears were not exactly tracking for a strong tournament bid when they lost four of five to open ACC play, but wins over North Carolina and Miami have vaulted them into consideration. At No. 50 on the résumé list with a 31% consensus at-large probability, they would likely be on the outside looking in if it were already Selection Sunday. However, they do have three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A victory) to their name. The Bears have the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule, which could see them end up with a surprisingly intriguing case by season’s end.
With so many of the conference’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus — the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights are in the driver’s seat for that slot, especially after grabbing a signature win over visiting Texas Tech on Saturday. They rank 25th in the résumé average, while no other non-lock Big 12 team is even in the top 55. Pulling off a road upset at either Houston or Cincinnati in the next week-plus would go a long way in further solidifying UCF’s standing.
The Billikens have a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila. They are 21-1 after beating Dayton by 31 points on Friday, tracking for Sports-Reference’s best SRS rating in program history. They rank 20th nationally in the résumé rankings and 23rd in the predictive ratings, with an 89% consensus chance that is arguably underselling their résumé. (Don’t be surprised if they are upgraded to “lock” status soon.) It’s very hard to see the Billikens not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end with the Gaels sitting 33rd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry only a consensus 70% at-large probability, likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. They also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for Saturday’s loss at Gonzaga when the teams meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.