Barnwell’s annual SB opus: We size up every facet of Seahawks-Pats and pick the winner

play2:06Stephen A.: The Seahawks are a great storyStephen A. Smith explains why the Seahawks are on a more impressive Super Bowl run than the Patriots.

play0:45Graziano praises the ‘common sense’ of Seahawks in roster-buildingDan Graziano discusses the Seahawks’ roster-building strategy, and in particular their decision to sign quarterback Sam Darnold.

play0:50Why Kurt Warner is excited for Seahawks-Patriots Super BowlKurt Warner joins Rich Eisen and offers his thoughts on the Seahawks playing the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

play2:35Stephen A. calls out Woody’s take on Pats’ path to Super BowlStephen A. Smith gets fired up after hearing Damien Woody’s take that the Patriots had a harder path to Super Bowl LX than the Seahawks did.

play0:54Schlereth: Seahawks the better all-around team in Super BowlMark Schlereth explains why the Seahawks have the edge over the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

play0:39Who is Jerry Rice’s pick for Super Bowl LX?Jerry Rice explains to Rich Eisen why he’s siding with the Seahawks over the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

play1:39Kyle Juszczyk: I like the Patriots’ chances to win the Super BowlSan Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to explain why the Patriots have the edge over the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.

play1:45Mark Schlereth’s Super Bowl MVP predictionMark Schlereth joins Rich Eisen to give his predictions for the Super Bowl LX winner, score and MVP.

Stephen A.: Drake Maye’s mobility ‘problematic’ for Seahawks (1:15)Stephen A. Smith says the Seahawks should plan around Drake Maye’s abilities as a dual threat. (1:15)

Stephen A.: The Seahawks are a great storyStephen A. Smith explains why the Seahawks are on a more impressive Super Bowl run than the Patriots.

Stephen A. Smith explains why the Seahawks are on a more impressive Super Bowl run than the Patriots.

Graziano praises the ‘common sense’ of Seahawks in roster-buildingDan Graziano discusses the Seahawks’ roster-building strategy, and in particular their decision to sign quarterback Sam Darnold.

Dan Graziano discusses the Seahawks’ roster-building strategy, and in particular their decision to sign quarterback Sam Darnold.

Why Kurt Warner is excited for Seahawks-Patriots Super BowlKurt Warner joins Rich Eisen and offers his thoughts on the Seahawks playing the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

Kurt Warner joins Rich Eisen and offers his thoughts on the Seahawks playing the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

Stephen A. calls out Woody’s take on Pats’ path to Super BowlStephen A. Smith gets fired up after hearing Damien Woody’s take that the Patriots had a harder path to Super Bowl LX than the Seahawks did.

Stephen A. Smith gets fired up after hearing Damien Woody’s take that the Patriots had a harder path to Super Bowl LX than the Seahawks did.

Troy Aikman joins “The Rich Eisen Show” and says he’s thrilled for Sam Darnold and what he has been able to accomplish.

Schlereth: Seahawks the better all-around team in Super BowlMark Schlereth explains why the Seahawks have the edge over the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

Who is Jerry Rice’s pick for Super Bowl LX?Jerry Rice explains to Rich Eisen why he’s siding with the Seahawks over the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Jerry Rice explains to Rich Eisen why he’s siding with the Seahawks over the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Kyle Juszczyk: I like the Patriots’ chances to win the Super BowlSan Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to explain why the Patriots have the edge over the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.

San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to explain why the Patriots have the edge over the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.

Mark Schlereth’s Super Bowl MVP predictionMark Schlereth joins Rich Eisen to give his predictions for the Super Bowl LX winner, score and MVP.

Mark Schlereth joins Rich Eisen to give his predictions for the Super Bowl LX winner, score and MVP.

Will the real Darnold — or the real Patriots — show up?

On Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet in Super Bowl LX. But we might as well call it the Explosive Play Bowl.

Offenses have evolved too. They’ve taken what the defense has given, running the ball more often and with more efficiency than in past years. Quarterbacks have been forced to make small profits and take the safer pass. With a leaguewide increase in willingness to go for it on fourth down, third-and-short has become an opportunity to hit those explosives, while third-and-medium has become a situation where the run is still in play.

The league’s rule changes have also altered the way teams play offense. The move to a dynamic kickoff and placing touchbacks at the 30-yard line (in 2024) and 35-yard line (in 2025) have made it more difficult to play the field position game as a defense. The average drive after a kickoff starts with 69.3 yards to go for a touchdown, 5 full yards ahead of where it was five years ago.

The Patriots were in fourth at 2.8%, buoyed by a league-best explosive creation rate of 13.6% on offense. And the Seahawks, who will be favored on Sunday, outpaced everyone. Their 4.7% explosive-play differential was the best mark in the NFL and the ninth-best figure posted by any team of the past 25 years. And they were truly elite on the defensive side of the ball, meaning we’ll get the league’s best offense at creating explosive plays versus the league’s best defense at stopping them Sunday.

Of course, one-game variance can swamp regular-season stats. The six best teams by explosive-play differential over the past 25 years all made it to the Super Bowl; they all lost. A Patriots defense that was ordinary during the regular season by advanced metrics has allowed just six explosives through three postseason games while playing a series of compromised, injury-impacted offenses. The Seahawks gave up 12 explosives to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game.

They won that matchup because quarterback Sam Darnold responded to two months of middling football by playing one of the games of his life. His opponent, Drake Maye, has followed an MVP-caliber regular season with a wildly inconsistent postseason, mixing turnovers with spectacular plays.

Macdonald’s defense then compounds the lean toward the pass by operating almost exclusively out of subpackages. The Seahawks have a deep, talented secondary, led by superstar cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Macdonald wants to get as many of those defensive backs on the field as possible. The Seahawks are in their base defense just 5.7% of the time on first and second down, which is comfortably the lowest rate in the NFL. The league average is 35.2%.

And yet, the Seahawks have the best run defense in the NFL on early downs. They allow 3.5 yards per carry and minus-0.13 EPA per play against designed runs on first and second downs, No. 1 in the NFL. Their 64.6% success rate against those runs is the third-best mark. And as you can probably guess, they don’t allow big runs; the Seahawks allowed just seven explosive runs on early-down designed runs all season, fewest in the league.

Macdonald’s defense dares opposing teams to run and then beats them at the game they want to play, pushing the offense behind schedule. They challenge opponents to thumb wrestle and then beat them with their pinkie.

Instead, Macdonald has gotten more out of players who were already on the roster, made meaningful additions in the draft and imported talent that fits the style of defense he wants to play. By getting more of what was already there and making the right additions, he has turned the Seahawks from a frustrating, disappointing unit into one of the league’s best defenses in two years, just as he did in Baltimore.

Unheralded players on the bottom of Carroll’s roster have grown into bigger roles. Macdonald moved benched slot cornerback Coby Bryant to free safety, where he has excelled in coverage, allowing a 54.0 passer rating in coverage this season. Backup safety Ty Okada has stepped in when Bryant and Julian Love have been injured and stood out, with the special-teamer proving to be one of the league’s more reliable tackling defensive backs.

General manager John Schneider deserves credit for importing the right guys too. The Seahawks signed Josh Jobe off waivers from Philadelphia in 2024 and built him into a solid outside cornerback. The Rams and Titans both gave up on Ernest Jones IV in 2024, and when the Seahawks decided that free agent addition Jerome Baker wasn’t working out, they ate a sunk cost and traded Baker and a fourth-round pick to the Titans to add Jones.

In Baltimore, Macdonald had Nnamdi Madubuike, who emerged as a superstar pass-rushing defensive tackle in the coach’s second and final year as coordinator. Macdonald was lucky to inherit a standout tackle in Leonard Williams, but it seemed telling that Schneider’s first draft pick with Macdonald in town was a young defensive tackle with the potential to be a disruptive 3-technique.

Byron Murphy II is not quite on Madubuike’s level yet, but after a quiet, injury-impacted rookie season, he managed seven sacks and 13 quarterback knockdowns in his second year. He ranked 16th in pass rush win rate and 14th in pressure rate among interior linemen. Playing next to Williams helps, but Murphy has taken over games for stretches in 2025, with noticeably impressive showings against the Cardinals and Titans during the regular season.

Graziano praises the ‘common sense’ of Seahawks in roster-building

I left the most unique player for last. Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori might be the skeleton key that makes this work. The Seahawks traded up to get the superathlete with the 35th pick in last year’s draft. South Carolina had used Emmanwori as both a free safety and a strong safety in the box, but since his arrival into the NFL, Macdonald has been loath to use the 21-year-old as a deep safety, instead leaning on Love, Bryant and Okada to play those roles.

With all these playmakers, the Seahawks can control other teams on the ground with lighter personnel and box counts. And because they can do it without needing to commit extra defenders, that leaves five defensive backs with two deep safeties to limit explosives.

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