Ben SolakFeb 10, 2026, 06:35 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.Multiple Authors
play2:38Stephen A.’s NFC QB rankings have RC fumingStephen A. Smith, Ryan Clark and Dan Orlovsky get heated debating which NFC quarterbacks they would take over Sam Darnold.
play1:30Graziano: Rodgers not a ‘real solution’ at QB anymoreDan Graziano explains why the Steelers need to move on from Aaron Rodgers after their AFC wild-card exit against the Texans.
play1:38How much better would Vikings have been with Sam Darnold this season?The “Get Up” crew discusses how the Vikings’ season might have differed with Sam Darnold at quarterback rather than J.J. McCarthy.
Peter Schrager: No sure thing Kyler Murray is out in Arizona (1:13)Peter Schrager and Mina Kimes weigh in on Kyler Murray’s future in Arizona after the Cardinals’ hiring of Mike LaFleur. (1:13)
Mel Kiper Jr. examines whether Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a first-round pick after he declared for the draft.
Stephen A.’s NFC QB rankings have RC fumingStephen A. Smith, Ryan Clark and Dan Orlovsky get heated debating which NFC quarterbacks they would take over Sam Darnold.
Stephen A. Smith, Ryan Clark and Dan Orlovsky get heated debating which NFC quarterbacks they would take over Sam Darnold.
Graziano: Rodgers not a ‘real solution’ at QB anymoreDan Graziano explains why the Steelers need to move on from Aaron Rodgers after their AFC wild-card exit against the Texans.
Dan Graziano explains why the Steelers need to move on from Aaron Rodgers after their AFC wild-card exit against the Texans.
How much better would Vikings have been with Sam Darnold this season?The “Get Up” crew discusses how the Vikings’ season might have differed with Sam Darnold at quarterback rather than J.J. McCarthy.
The “Get Up” crew discusses how the Vikings’ season might have differed with Sam Darnold at quarterback rather than J.J. McCarthy.
When Murray and Tagovailoa are the offseason’s best options, it isn’t a great QB offseason. But both are workable under the right conditions, and below them, there are plenty of veteran journeymen or low-risk gambles teams will consider at the position. Quarterback movement is inevitable, so let’s look at all of the candidates for changing teams, as well as the teams in the market for their services.
In the past 11 drafts, a quarterback has been selected with the first pick nine times. The three drafted longest ago (2015 Jameis Winston, 2016 Jared Goff and 2018 Baker Mayfield) are with new teams. The ensuing six remain on the teams that drafted them. Murray, drafted in 2019, is the longest tenured of those six … for now.
As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last week, the Cardinals are actively seeking a trade partner for Murray’s deal. It makes sense. Cutting Murray outright would incur a dead cap hit north of $54.7 million. It wouldn’t be the biggest dead cap hit ever — when Russell Wilson was released by the Broncos in 2024, he left behind a whopping $85 million in dead money. But it would be the second biggest.
By trading Murray, the Cardinals could save on dead money and get draft capital in return. Assuming Murray is traded the moment the new league year begins, the Cardinals would take on only the $17 million in cap already due Murray from prorated signing and option bonuses. Relative to his expected 2026 cap hit of over $52 million, they’d save around $35 million in cap space — a huge boon.
Murray’s $22.8 million base salary for the 2026 season is already guaranteed, and another $17 million in roster bonuses is guaranteed by whatever team rosters him — the Cardinals or an acquiring team — on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. As such, Murray would hit the cap for over $40 million in Year 1 and is due another $19.5 million guaranteed in Year 2. This is not a small commitment.
This split is a serious departure from where Murray was on similar throws under Kingsbury, and it speaks to the disconnect between Petzing and Murray, as well as the Cardinals’ Marvin Harrison Jr.-sized failure to find a solid downfield target.
Murray is currently recovering from a foot injury of unclear severity, and the Cardinals likely used that injury to keep him on the bench for the entire regular season. Could he have come back? If so, when? And how would he have looked? We have no idea, which makes his offseason even more uncertain.
He is in the midst of a lucrative contract extension, and the financials behind trading his deal would be tough. Cutting Tagovailoa would create $99 million in dead cap — a record-setting figure. Even with a post-June 1 designation, Tagovailoa would still batter the Dolphins’ salary cap with a $67 million dead cap figure in 2026 alone, beating Wilson’s single-year record of $53 million cleanly. Releasing Tagovailoa would be the largest admission of financial error in NFL history.
I’d wager that the Dolphins don’t just take on Tagovailoa’s $15 million but also some more of the 2026 salary to make his contract more of a one-year deal in the $30 million range (with some team options behind). This would make Tagovailoa’s compensation commensurate with the deal Darnold signed with Seattle, as a scheme-dependent quarterback with the right tool kit to manage an elite offense for the correct coaching staff.
Tagovailoa is extremely unlikely to return much of anything in a trade package. While Murray could easily get into the range of a Day 2 pick, I would be surprised if Tagovailoa is traded for anything better than a Round 4 selection. It would require the Dolphins taking on even more salary to get anything in trade return for their former franchise passer, and they can take on only so much because they must also release Tyreek Hill this offseason.
In Green Bay, Willis showed some of the talent that got him drafted in Round 3 in 2022. In 11 games, Willis has 42 carries for 261 yards and three scores. That 6.2 yards-per-rush mark would be fourth behind Murray, Baker Mayfield and Spencer Rattler over the past two seasons among passers with 100-plus dropbacks. Willis’ 13% scramble rate and 11.8% explosive run rate would lead all QBs. This guy is a legitimate threat with the ball.
But it’s the improvement as a passer that really stands out. Over those two seasons, Willis has gone 70-of-89 (79% completion rate) for 972 yards, and that 10.9 yards per attempt ranks miles ahead of second place (Lamar Jackson at 8.7). His 9.2 yards per dropback is also miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 7.7). And his 86.3 total QBR is miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 69.9).
Willis is no longer a sleeper signing. His services will be hotly sought after by teams looking for a still-young gamble at a franchise quarterback. But just how hotly? It’s hard to find a historical proxy for “highly valued free agent with six career starts at quarterback.”
One of the few solid comparisons we can use is Jimmy Garoppolo. Though Garoppolo could not be more stylistically opposite from Willis, he had only seven starts in his first four seasons as a pro — including two before the 49ers traded a second-round pick to acquire him from the Patriots after his third season. Garoppolo had five starts for the 49ers in 2017, went 5-0 as a starter with solid stats and got a five-year deal worth $137.5 million — the largest contract in NFL history at the time.
With a largely unsatisfying draft class waiting in the wings, there almost certainly will be movement among No. 2 QBs as teams cycle through young passers in hope of striking gold on a Hail Mary heave. Here are a few young names to watch for those teams that miss out on Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray.
As I see it, there are 10 teams in clear need of an additional quarterback this offseason. That count does not include Las Vegas, which will draft Fernando Mendoza with the first pick and start a new era of prolific Raiders football (hopefully). Included in those 10 teams are the Cardinals and the Dolphins, who — independent of exactly how they move on from their current passers — will at least look for competition in 2026.
Atlanta can defensibly enter 2026 with Penix under close scrutiny as a third-year starter. But he’s coming off a late-season ACL tear, so the Falcons will need someone who can start in September if he’s not ready. More likely, the Falcons open up the starting job in a camp competition between Penix and another outside option.
Funnily enough, Cousins would be a great fit in Atlanta. He has played for new coach Kevin Stefanski successfully in the past (with Minnesota) and obviously has an existing rapport with the Falcons’ pass catchers. Is the blood in Atlanta still bad now that the front office and coaching staff have been replaced?
Atlanta likely won’t compete hard for Willis’ services in free agency, but I could easily see that front office trading for one of the backups on rookie contracts who are collecting dust on another team’s bench.
Assuming the Colts sign Daniel Jones, I could still see them looking for a veteran option to start over Riley Leonard while Jones slowly comes back from the Achilles injury. (No, not Philip Rivers. That’s a little too veteran.) This seems like the right team for Marcus Mariota or Joe Flacco.
If the Colts do not re-sign Jones, they’ll have perhaps the biggest QB need on the market. But they will … right?
I don’t think it would be egregious for the Jets to enter next season with a QB room of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and (insert middle-round rookie here). Fields was frustratingly cautious for the Jets last season, but most of the free agent options aren’t much better than him or Taylor.
Graziano: Rodgers not a ‘real solution’ at QB anymore
The Browns should aggressively pursue and sign Willis in free agency. Why not? Already leveraged aggressively against future cap years, the Browns will start to make up financial ground only once they have a quarterback on a good deal. If they trade for Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, with one year remaining on their respective contracts, they’ll be negotiating from a weaker position should either player actually hit.