North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes: Game Highlights (1:12)North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes: Game Highlights (1:12)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly five weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ.
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators Vanderbilt Commodores Alabama Crimson Tide Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats
Duke Blue Devils Louisville Cardinals Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels Clemson Tigers NC State Wolfpack
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Kansas Jayhawks Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference) Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10) Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
The Broncos have come on strong recently, elevating themselves into the “work to do” category with wins in six of seven games, including Saturday’s critical one-point victory at fellow bubble squad New Mexico. They’ve tripled their conditional at-large odds in the past week — but before we get too excited, that still leaves them at 15% odds, with a résumé ranking outside the top 60. They belong here for now, and will get further chances to build their case to the committee in the next month.
Iowa continues its rise up the résumé rankings to move closer to “lock” status. The Hawkeyes bolstered their case with a Quadrant 1A win at Indiana in mid-January, starting a six-game win streak that kept rolling Sunday with a victory over a stubborn Northwestern squad. What’s scary is they’re even better than their résumé ranking gives them credit for, checking in as borderline top 20 in our average of predictive ratings — which in turn raises their potential going forward. Their schedule does get more difficult looking ahead, jumping from 71st to 24th nationally, according to the BPI. Wins like the Hawkeyes have compiled recently, though, have them trending solidly toward a return to March Madness.
After trailing by double digits with seven minutes left in regulation, Wisconsin rallied to force overtime at Illinois on Tuesday, eventually scoring an impressive win behind 49 combined points from John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. The victory was the Badgers’ second Quadrant 1A win of the season, which improves a résumé that otherwise sits around 40th in the national consensus ranking (ninth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their schedule doesn’t let up after the trip to Champaign, with three more Quadrant 1 contests still coming up. More wins over that stretch could further solidify their at-large case.
Darling of the forecast models — which now average out to a conditional at-large probability in the mid-80% range despite the team’s borderline top-40 résumé ranking — Indiana bolstered its chances with a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin on Saturday, then rolled all over Oregon on Monday. The latter was the Hoosiers’ fifth victory in six games, a stretch that includes three wins over opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2. With only the 8th-hardest remaining schedule in the Big Ten and a top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics, the Hoosiers have a good path to the tourney in front of them.
USC continued building its case as a tourney contender with a back-and-forth win at Penn State on Sunday, behind freshman Alijah Arenas’ second consecutive 20-point game (capped off by a buzzer-beater). If the season ended today, the Trojans would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries comfortably: They’re a mid-30s team in the résumé rankings and sit seventh in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. The models are a bit less bullish (below 70% at-large), however, showing the Trojans as a mid-40s team in the predictive ratings with the nation’s 26th-hardest remaining schedule. But Eric Musselman’s team has now won four of five after a midseason skid, including résumé boosters over Wisconsin and Indiana.
The Huskies are tumbling further toward the “long shots” category, as a pair of losses to Iowa and UCLA dropped them to an 11% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-9 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (63rd nationally). But they also have a pair of wins over teams in the BPI top 50 — most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season, a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Jan. 31. One other glimmer of hope for UW: It has the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule, though that also cuts against its ability to add signature wins.
A couple of weeks ago, Auburn was multiple games above .500 in the SEC and was nearing “lock” territory in the model consensus. But three straight losses — albeit to a trio of tough opponents in Tennessee, Alabama and Vanderbilt — have complicated the pace of that trajectory. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most-difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. That means there’s still cushion to work with, though the BPI is projecting them to barely clear 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values schedule strength.
The Bulldogs desperately needed a victory after recent losses to Ole Miss, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M dropped their odds — and they got it during Saturday’s visit to LSU, winning by double-digits. Still in the mid-30s of the overall résumé rankings with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50, they still entered the weekend ranked ninth among SEC teams in résumé average (out of what could be only a nine-bid conference). They also jump from 75th-hardest strength of schedule nationally to 16th moving forward, and they’re projected to lose more remaining games than they win.
Despite back-to-back losses to Alabama and Florida, most of the models in the forecast consensus still consider the Aggies to be in solid shape (80% or higher) for an at-large bid. They are projected by the BPI to finish the regular season with at least 21 wins, which should be enough to make the tournament. They’re still just eighth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be as few as nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.
Despite ranking in the mid-30s of the predictive metrics nationally, Sean Miller’s team is in a tough numbers game after a handful of early defeats in SEC play. The Longhorns seem to be moving in the right direction, though, with three straight wins (and four in five). That includes Saturday’s victory over Ole Miss, courtesy of a game-ending 14-0 run that turned a three-point deficit into an 11-point win over the final 3½ minutes. They are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (around 50th nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 64th hardest looking back to 19th hardest going forward. Three Quadrant 1 wins, including two for Quadrant 1A, are helpful, but the Horns need to either keep the winning streak going against a tough set of opponents, or hope the SEC gets 10 bids.
After a recent cold stretch, the Tigers won their second straight game (and third in four) with a dominant performance at South Carolina on Saturday. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries at most. Mizzou does have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if its résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins remains a task easier said than done.
The Mustangs bounced back from consecutive losses, including an especially tough one hosting NC State, with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Notre Dame to help stabilize their trajectory. Even after the recent losses, SMU still ranked seventh best in what should be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And although they are seventh in the ACC (34th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 74th-hardest remaining schedule. That’s good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket was set today — especially if they can add another résumé win or two, which they’ll have a handful more chances to do before the regular season ends.
The Hokies’ conditional at-large odds have been falling — they were down to 27% heading into the weekend– and they fell even more after their loss to NC State on Saturday. That means they are currently tracking to miss the field if their season continues at the same pace. Though their record isn’t dissimilar to that of SMU or Miami, Virginia Tech has a tougher future schedule (ninth hardest in the ACC) and only ranks borderline top 60 in the predictive metrics. That doesn’t portend a tourney nod unless the Hokies pull off some upsets over their remaining regular-season schedule.
Recent wins over North Carolina, Stanford, Miami and Georgia Tech vaulted Cal into bubble territory, but Saturday’s loss to Clemson was likely a wake-up call. The Golden Bears surrendered a 23-1 run in the first half, and the Tigers never looked back. Cal still sits in the 40s on the résumé ranking, has three Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and faces the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. It helps that fellow bubble team Virginia Tech lost Saturday, too. But with a consensus at-large probability below 30%, the Bears are tracking to be on the outside looking in.