Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers: Game Highlights (1:17)Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers: Game Highlights (1:17)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly five weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern. Only expected at-large bids are listed; each conference will receive one additional berth with an AQ.
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators Vanderbilt Commodores Alabama Crimson Tide Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats
Duke Blue Devils Louisville Cardinals Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels Clemson Tigers NC State Wolfpack
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Kansas Jayhawks Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference) Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10) Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
The Broncos have come on strong recently, elevating themselves into the “work to do” category with wins in six of seven games, including Saturday’s critical one-point victory at fellow bubble squad New Mexico. They’ve tripled their conditional at-large odds in the past week — but before we get too excited, that still leaves them at 15% odds, with a résumé ranking outside the top 60. They belong here for now, and will get further chances to build their case to the committee in the next month.
With a chance to run its win streak to seven games, Iowa instead fell short against Maryland on Wednesday. The Hawkeyes still own a conditional at-large probability in the 90% range, and a résumé around the top 30 nationally, so the road loss only stalls their momentum for now. Helping coach Ben McCollum’s team is the fact that it’s borderline top 20 in our average of predictive ratings, which in turn raises its potential going forward. Iowa’s schedule does get more difficult, though, jumping from 70th so far to 14th from here on nationally (fourth hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI.
After trailing by double digits with seven minutes left in regulation, Wisconsin rallied to force overtime at Illinois on Tuesday, eventually scoring an impressive win behind 49 combined points from John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. The victory was the Badgers’ second Quadrant 1A win of the season, which improves a résumé that otherwise sits around 40th in the national consensus ranking (ninth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their schedule doesn’t let up after the trip to Champaign, with three more Quadrant 1 contests still coming up. More wins over that stretch could further solidify their at-large case.
Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which ate into their at-large chances. Of course, their main problem remains future results: If the season ended today, they would likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. The models, however, are less bullish. They are a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 17th most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman’s team.
The Huskies are tumbling further toward the “long shots” category, as a pair of losses to Iowa and UCLA dropped them to an 11% chance in the forecast model consensus. They are just 4-9 in Big Ten play and rank 12th in the conference on résumé (63rd nationally). But they also have a pair of wins over teams in the BPI top 50 — most recently adding what might have been their most impressive of the season, a 14-point road victory over Northwestern on Jan. 31. One other glimmer of hope for UW: It has the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule, though that also cuts against its ability to add signature wins.
A couple of weeks ago, Auburn was multiple games above .500 in the SEC and was nearing “lock” territory in the model consensus. But three straight losses — albeit to a trio of tough opponents in Tennessee, Alabama and Vanderbilt — have complicated the pace of that trajectory. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most-difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. That means there’s still cushion to work with, though the BPI is projecting them to barely clear 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values schedule strength.
Georgia picked up a much-needed win in Saturday’s visit to LSU, but Florida made quick work of the Dawgs on Wednesday to hand them their fourth loss in five games. Still in the mid-to-high 30s of the overall résumé rankings — with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50 — they are still eighth in résumé average amid what is looking like a nine- or 10-bid SEC, so their at-large chances remain solid despite the recent losses. But a jump from 73rd-hardest strength of schedule nationally to 18th moving forward could portend even more losses from here.
Despite back-to-back losses to Alabama and Florida, most of the models in the forecast consensus still consider the Aggies to be in solid shape (80% or higher) for an at-large bid. They are projected by the BPI to finish the regular season with at least 21 wins, which should be enough to make the tournament. They’re still just eighth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be as few as nine tournament-bound teams from the SEC, though there’s a big gap between them and 10th-ranked Texas.
Despite ranking in the mid-30s of the predictive metrics nationally, Sean Miller’s team is in a tough numbers game after a handful of early defeats in SEC play. The Longhorns seem to be moving in the right direction, though, with three straight wins (and four in five). That includes Saturday’s victory over Ole Miss, courtesy of a game-ending 14-0 run that turned a three-point deficit into an 11-point win over the final 3½ minutes. They are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (around 50th nationally), and their schedule strength jumps from 64th hardest looking back to 19th hardest going forward. Three Quadrant 1 wins, including two for Quadrant 1A, are helpful, but the Horns need to either keep the winning streak going against a tough set of opponents, or hope the SEC gets 10 bids.
After a recent cold stretch, the Tigers won their second straight game (and third in four) with a dominant performance at South Carolina on Saturday. They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries at most. Mizzou does have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and four against the BPI top 50. But even if its résumé is on par with that of Texas, Missouri is much lower in the predictive metrics, so outdueling the Longhorns with more wins remains a task easier said than done.
The Mustangs bounced back from consecutive losses, including an especially tough one hosting NC State, with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Notre Dame to help stabilize their trajectory. Even after the recent losses, SMU still ranked seventh best in what should be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And although they are seventh in the ACC (34th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 74th-hardest remaining schedule. That’s good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket was set today — especially if they can add another résumé win or two, which they’ll have a handful more chances to do before the regular season ends.
Unlike on Saturday, when the Hokies could not overcome NC State on the road, they scored a huge road win over another Quadrant 1A foe with an upset at Clemson on Wednesday. It was their third Quadrant 1 win of the season — and first Quadrant 1A victory — helping to boost a résumé rating that threatened to drop out of the top 50. The at-large chances still suggest they are tracking to miss the field without additional résumé boosters, in part because they only rank borderline top 60 in the predictive metrics. But a win in the highest-leverage game of Wednesday’s slate, per BartTorvik, absolutely helped their case.
Recent wins over North Carolina, Stanford, Miami and Georgia Tech vaulted Cal into bubble territory, but back-to-back losses to Clemson, then Syracuse in double overtime — the latter of which happened amid a city-wide power outage — splashed cold water on the Golden Bears’ hopes. They still sit in the borderline top 50 on the résumé ranking, have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. But with a consensus at-large probability tumbling toward the single digits, the Bears truly do have “work to do” (and not much time to do it).
With so many of the conference’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large odds in the model consensus — the Big 12 bubble picture really comes down to which team could be the seventh in. The Knights remain in the driver’s seat for that slot despite back-to-back losses at Houston and Cincinnati over the past week. They rank around 30th in the résumé average, while only one other non-lock Big 12 team (Oklahoma State) is even in the top 50. Despite the recent defeats, the Knights are still tracking for more than 20 wins and will get the chance to regroup and bolster their tournament chances against a more winnable sequence of upcoming games against West Virginia, TCU and Utah.