Texas Longhorns vs. Missouri Tigers: Game Highlights (1:15)Texas Longhorns vs. Missouri Tigers: Game Highlights (1:15)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Alabama Crimson Tide Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats
Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have “work to do.”
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference) Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10) Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant with their consensus at-large odds sitting below 50%. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Iowa was looking like a potential “lock” candidate after winning six in a row, but the Hawkeyes’ at-large chances have fallen after back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue. The Hawkeyes still own a résumé in the mid-30s nationally, and they are borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings, both of which bode well for their tournament hopes. But their schedule gets more difficult, jumping from 63rd so far to ninth from here on nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI.
A recent stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80%, but that hot streak cooled off in Ann Arbor on Saturday, as Michigan rolled over UCLA by 30. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the mid-40s nationally (10th in the Big Ten), and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. If the conference gets 10 bids, the Bruins are currently in line for the last one, but difficult matchups against Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska remain.
With a prime opportunity to raise its at-large chances even further against Virginia on Saturday in Nashville, Ohio State led by 11 early and was competitive throughout, but ultimately fell to the No. 15 Cavaliers. The Buckeyes still sit right on the bubble, ranking mid-40s in the national résumé rankings and 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They are also 1-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, making them less sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. But they’re better than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. The main issue is that they have been unable to build consistent momentum at any point this season, following six of their past seven wins with a defeat.
Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large chances below 60%. If the season ended today, they would still likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. Of course, their main problem remains future results. which is why the models are less bullish. USC is a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 23rd most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman’s team.
Auburn’s fortunes continued to slide with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. While the Tigers’ four straight defeats have come against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they have dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and complicated what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call, though the BPI is projecting them to potentially not even reach 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
In the highest-leverage bubble showdown on Saturday’s slate, the Longhorns beat Missouri convincingly on the road to continue a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections. They graduate from “work to do” to “should be in” as a result, with the consensus forecast giving them a 77% at-large chance after the victory. The Longhorns are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (borderline top 50 nationally), but their results are catching up with their predictive rating, which consistently has been in the top 40. They still face a tough slate with four of their final six regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents. Their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids, but the Longhorns are in vastly better shape now than at any point in the past six weeks.
After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Dawgs have been on the decline, notching their fifth loss in six games after a second-half collapse at Oklahoma on Saturday. They have fallen from a 97% consensus at-large chance to 66% in the past three weeks and now sit 40th in the overall résumé rankings — with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50 — and eighth in résumé average amid what is looking like a nine- or 10-bid SEC. The recent jump in schedule difficulty has taken its toll, with plenty of tough matchups left.
After satiating our criteria for a “lock,” with a 98% consensus at-large chance after a run of eight wins in nine games (including a pair of Quadrant 1A victories), back-to-back losses to Louisville and Miami have NC State back in “should be in” territory. The Wolfpack still rank inside the top 30 nationally in the predictive and résumé ratings, including sixth on the résumé list in an ACC tracking for eight bids. But they also face a significantly tougher remaining schedule (fourth hardest in the conference) than the ACC’s other bubble hopefuls.
Just when the Mustangs seemingly bounced back from consecutive losses to Louisville and NC State with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, they faltered late as road favorites at Syracuse on Saturday, blowing a double-digit second-half lead to lose for the third time in five games. Still, they rank seventh in what should be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And while they are seventh in the conference (37th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 71st-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket were set today with an 86% consensus at-large chance. But their tournament chances are not as high as they were a few weeks ago.
The Hurricanes’ chances had dipped after a trio of recent losses, but three straight wins have coach Jai Lucas’ team back on the rise, with back-to-back résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina and at NC State. The Hurricanes have a top-40 résumé quality nationally (eighth in the ACC), and their consensus model at-large chances are up roughly 30% over the past three weeks, a positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 69th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (of which they already have four).
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really comes down to who could be the seventh bid. The Knights remain in control of that slot despite three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but their grip is loosening. As a result of this string of defeats, they are no longer tracking for more than 20 wins and have fallen outside the top 30 in the résumé average (though only one other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50). Good news for the Knights is that they face the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference.
After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs responded with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. Their case is interesting: Although they sit with consensus at-large chance in the 40% range, they have five Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State), and the chance to add another coming up against UCF, despite playing the Big 12’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule (53rd hardest nationally). They are building a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team.
West Virginia still faces an uphill battle to return to the tournament for the first time since 2023, but its win at UCF on Saturday certainly helps. The model consensus still sets the Mountaineers’ chances at an at-large bid around 25%, and they are barely flirting with the top 60 in résumé rankings while only a little better in the predictive ranking. But they do have four wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — and will have a chance to control their destiny by adding more in the coming weeks.