Bill ConnellyFeb 17, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play1:01Laurens: Eze needed this performance for ArsenalJulien Laurens praises Eberechi Eze performance vs. Wigan as Mikel Arteta rotated his starting XI in the FA cup.
play1:57How Antoine Semenyo has had a ‘flawless’ transition to Man CityDon Hutchison and Kieran Gibbs speak after Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Salford City in the FA Cup fourth round.
play1:15Was Brighton match a turning point for Mo Salah?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Mo Salah’s performance vs. Brighton after he converted a penalty in the 68th minute.
play2:31Laurens: Bastoni let himself down on red card incidentJulien Laurens and Gab Marcotti react to Pierre Kalulu’s red card after he was sent off in controversial fashion.
play1:27Marcotti: A step in the right direction for Real MadridGab Marcotti discusses Real Madrid’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad after Vinicius Junior scores twice.
play2:12Will Igor Tudor stabilize Tottenham?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discusses the appointment of Igor Tudor as interim manager until the end of the season.
Are Arsenal favourites to win the Champions League? (0:43)Alejandro Moreno and Steve Nicol debate who should be favorites to win the Champions League. (0:43)
Laurens: Eze needed this performance for ArsenalJulien Laurens praises Eberechi Eze performance vs. Wigan as Mikel Arteta rotated his starting XI in the FA cup.
Julien Laurens praises Eberechi Eze performance vs. Wigan as Mikel Arteta rotated his starting XI in the FA cup.
How Antoine Semenyo has had a ‘flawless’ transition to Man CityDon Hutchison and Kieran Gibbs speak after Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Salford City in the FA Cup fourth round.
Don Hutchison and Kieran Gibbs speak after Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Salford City in the FA Cup fourth round.
Was Brighton match a turning point for Mo Salah?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Mo Salah’s performance vs. Brighton after he converted a penalty in the 68th minute.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Mo Salah’s performance vs. Brighton after he converted a penalty in the 68th minute.
Laurens: Bastoni let himself down on red card incidentJulien Laurens and Gab Marcotti react to Pierre Kalulu’s red card after he was sent off in controversial fashion.
Julien Laurens and Gab Marcotti react to Pierre Kalulu’s red card after he was sent off in controversial fashion.
Marcotti: A step in the right direction for Real MadridGab Marcotti discusses Real Madrid’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad after Vinicius Junior scores twice.
Will Igor Tudor stabilize Tottenham?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discusses the appointment of Igor Tudor as interim manager until the end of the season.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discusses the appointment of Igor Tudor as interim manager until the end of the season.
With the UEFA Champions League’s extended league phase over, it’s time for the extended knockout rounds. That’s both a pointed commentary and a celebration.
– Three bold ways we would change the UEFA Champions League – Ogden: Real Madrid broke Mourinho. Now he could break them with Benfica – Best tifos of the UEFA Champions League, Europa League this season
Average title odds: 26.3% Next opponent: Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund or Olympiacos (round of 16)
(Note: I created a set of average title odds based on those set by Opta’s supercomputer, DraftKings and xStandings.com on Monday morning.)
Why they will win it all: They’re the best team in Europe. Plain and simple. Mikel Arteta and Arsenal have been building toward this exact moment for years, and they head into the spring with a shot at four different trophies.
From old reliables such as defenders William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, midfielders Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard, and wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, to devastating newcomers such as Martín Zubimendi and Noni Madueke, they have everything they need. They just have to close the deal.
Why they won’t: It’s really, really hard to close the deal. Arsenal are the resounding favorites, but they will still have to win four knockout round ties over the next 3½ months, and based on the odds above, there’s a 3-in-4 chance they won’t. They might have to beat 2024 finalist Borussia Dortmund and either Real Madrid or Manchester City just to reach the semifinals.
For as devastating as they’ve been this season, they don’t have much recent experience trailing on the scoreboard, and they’ve battled moments of patchy form — such as a 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest, followed by a loss to Manchester United in the Premier League. Arsenal are by far the best-equipped team in the field, but this is a gauntlet.
Average title odds: 16.4% Next opponent: Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund or Olympiacos (round of 16)
Why they will win it all: They take all the good shots. Even while at far less than full-strength — Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies combined for just 117 minutes as they recovered from long-term injuries — Bayern rolled through the league phase as if it were the old group stage.
Despite drawing a particularly strong set of opponents (Arsenal, PSG, Chelsea), they dropped points only once, at Arsenal, and finished the league phase second in goals (22), expected goals created (20.3), shots per possession (0.18), progressive passes (545) and buildup attacks* (54). They also attempted 33 shots worth at least 0.2 xG (the most in the competition) while allowing only 11. That’s a plus-22 margin, tied for the best with Arsenal.
Harry Kane attempted 10 of those big shots (including three penalties) — only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé and Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen (11 each) had more — but Luis Díaz (five), Michael Olise (four), Lennart Karl (four) and substitute Nico Jackson (four) also had quite a few.
That’s not a happy trend, and it’s not a great sign of what might happen if they get to play Arsenal again.
Average title odds: 8.9% Next opponent: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Bodo/Glimt or Benfica (round of 16)
How Antoine Semenyo has had a ‘flawless’ transition to Man City
Rodri hasn’t quite returned to his Ballon d’Or form, but we’re seeing a clearer outline — he’s first on the team in both ball recoveries and progressive passes in 2026. And new forward Antoine Semenyo moved to Manchester and immediately began creating an unfair number of high-quality shots.
City were far too reliant on Erling Haaland’s otherworldly goal scoring early in the season, but he has scored only four goals in his past 12 outings, and City look more dangerous than ever. They enter the knockout rounds unbeaten in their past seven matches.
Despite back-to-back losses, Yamal has scored seven goals with two assists from 49 chances created in his past 11 matches. He has been unlucky, too: His expected assist total (generated from the scoring threat of the passes he has completed) is 7.9 in that span. He’s soaring and, even after a bad week, Barca have won 17 of their past 20 matches in all competitions.
With Yamal leading the way, it will take only a decent level of defensive stability for this team to be a major Champions League threat.
Why they won’t: Shot quality (for and against). With his undying love of a high defensive line and extreme field tilt, Hansi Flick is one of the last great system guys in major soccer. That means we always know Barcelona’s strengths and potential vulnerabilities in advance.
Average title odds: 8.1% Next opponent: Juventus, Atlético Madrid, Club Brugge or Galatasaray (round of 16)
Draws have held them back in Premier League play, but their underlying xG numbers are increasingly awesome, and they won their past three Champions League matches by a combined 10-0. Last season, they peaked early and slumped a bit in the spring. This year, they might be doing the exact opposite.
Why they won’t: Do you trust their defense? Because I sure don’t. The epic defensive glitches of the early season are mostly a thing of the past; in this 19-match, two-loss run, they’ve allowed only 16 total goals with nine clean sheets. But their past six matches have included breakdown-heavy performances against Bournemouth (3-2 loss) and Manchester City (2-1), and their past three opponents have combined for 45 shot attempts.
Granted, most of their defensive breakdowns have come against domestic opponents this season, but, well, there are lots of English opponents left in this competition.
We’ve seen plenty of hints of that old brilliance: PSG beat Atalanta 4-0 in September, Bayer Leverkusen 7-2 in October, Rennes 5-0 in December, and Marseille 5-0 just over a week ago. It would surprise no one if they made another huge run in this competition.
Why they won’t: Sometimes it never comes together. Hangovers happen, and plenty of players just haven’t quite matched last year’s ridiculous form. That list starts with reigning Ballon d’Or winner Dembele, who scored just once from shots worth 2.3 xG in the league phase. He has made up for that with excellent finishing in Ligue 1, but he didn’t top 1,000 total minutes for the season until last Friday, and he has only so much longer to find fifth gear.
Why they will win it all: Cole Palmer’s going from cold to hot. Since hiring Liam Rosenior to replace Enzo Maresca as manager, Chelsea are unbeaten against teams not named Arsenal (to whom they lost both legs of the League Cup semifinal). Chelsea have scored 28 goals in these 11 matches, and although nine of those came against lower-division Charlton and Hull City in the FA Cup, the Blues scored three goals in four other matches and even put two in the net against Arsenal. That’s no small feat.
Perhaps most importantly, a lot of the strong recent attacking work has come from Palmer, who battled injuries and shaky form for much of the first few months of the season. He has 12 combined goals and assists in 2025-26, and eight of those (five goals, three assists) have come in his past six matches.