play2:02Stephen A.: LeBron crucial for Lakers to make playoffs runStephen A. Smith argues that if the Lakers are healthy and rolling offensively, they can make a run in the Western Conference playoffs.
André SnellingsCloseAndré SnellingsESPN Senior WriterDr. André Snellings is a senior writer for men’s and women’s fantasy basketball and sports betting at ESPN. André has a Ph.D. in biomedical engineering from Michigan. He joined ESPN in 2017 after a 16-year career as a neural engineer, during which time he was also a writer and analyst for Rotowire. and Eric MoodyCloseEric MoodyESPN WriterEric Moody is a writer for fantasy football, men’s and women’s basketball, and sports betting at ESPN. Eric joined ESPN in 2021 after working as a senior fantasy analyst at Pro Football Network. Prior to that, he spent much of his career as a manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company.Follow on XMultiple AuthorsFeb 17, 2026, 11:00 AM ET
Stephon Castle reflects on Spurs’ success at midway point of season (2:09)Stephon Castle joins “NBA Today” to weigh in on the Spurs’ season so far and discuss what it’s like to play alongside Victor Wembanyama. (2:09)
Stephen A.: LeBron crucial for Lakers to make playoffs runStephen A. Smith argues that if the Lakers are healthy and rolling offensively, they can make a run in the Western Conference playoffs.
Stephen A. Smith argues that if the Lakers are healthy and rolling offensively, they can make a run in the Western Conference playoffs.
Which teams will make the playoffs? Who will win MVP? With the NBA All-Star break now in the rearview mirror, we asked Andre Snellings and Eric Moody to re-evaluate teams and offer their bets heading into the second half of the season.
Snellings made picks for the Eastern Conference, and Eric Moody did the same for the Western Conference.
Stephen A.: LeBron crucial for Lakers to make playoffs run
He averages 28.7 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 10.7 APG while shooting 59.0% from the field. Before missing 16 games with a hyperextended left knee, Jokic was the MVP favorite. To remain eligible, he can afford to miss just one more game. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined by an abdominal strain and the Thunder cooling off from their hot start, Jokic’s statistical edge makes this price appealing.
The Warriors’ outlook changes dramatically after the All-Star break. Stephen Curry is expected back from knee soreness, and Kristaps Porzingis is trending toward his debut, giving Golden State elite floor spacing and a true matchup nightmare at center. Even without Jimmy Butler III, a healthy Curry plus Porzingis adds size, shooting and offensive versatility. If they stabilize defensively and stay healthy, this roster would be well positioned to surpass the listed win total.
The Clippers traded away James Harden and Ivica Zubac, leaving Kawhi Leonard to shoulder an unsustainably heavy offensive load. While Leonard has produced this season, his injury history makes that volume risky over a full stretch run. Although LAadded Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin, who should return soon, the roster remains in transition and the depth is uncertain. Even with a manageable schedule, relying this heavily on one star in a competitive division makes the under appealing.
After a 15-4 start, they’ve struggled since and rank 16th in net rating and 23rd in defensive rating. The Timberwolves and Suns profile as stronger, more balanced teams based on advanced metrics. The Lakers rely heavily on clutch wins, which can be a double-edged sword. Even slight regression could push them into the 7-to-10 range in the Western Conference.
After capturing the award in 2023-24, Reid could become just the sixth player in league history to win it multiple times. He’s playing some of the best basketball of his career and is someone head coach Chris Finch trusts in clutch minutes because of his versatility and two-way impact. From a statistical standpoint, both Minnesota’s top offensive and defensive lineups feature Reid.
The Thunder will want to lock down the No. 1 seed, especially with the Spurs not far behind in the Western Conference standings. Health will be Oklahoma City’s top priority, particularly with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined by an oblique injury. Still, the roster is deep enough that even if the team is cautious with SGA, Oklahoma City should have no trouble surpassing this win total.
The Suns’ offseason makeover has exceeded expectations, and they’ve built one of the more balanced rosters in the division. The addition of Dillon Brooks has strengthened their defensive identity, and Phoenix now ranks 10th in defensive rating. They’re neck and neck with the Lakers in the standings, but Los Angeles sits well outside the top 20 defensively. Defense tends to be more sustainable down the stretch, giving the Suns a more stable profile in a tight division race.
The Trail Blazers are trending upward, but their position is more fragile than it appears. Sitting ninth, they’re likely headed for the play-in tournament. While Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan have fueled major improvement, Portland remains a young, developing team. They also face one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league. Given those factors, they could hover near the number but ultimately finish slightly under their win total. -Moody
The Thunder have been favorites all season, but the Spurs went 4-1 against Oklahoma City. Matchups matter, and San Antonio has shown it can disrupt OKC’s rhythm. The Spurs rank fifth in net rating and feature one of the league’s most versatile players in Victor Wembanyama. At these odds, San Antonio is a legitimate postseason threat.
George has been one of the few bright spots for a Jazz team enduring another rebuilding season. In his third year, he is posting career highs in points (23.8), rebounds (3.9), assists (6.5), field-goal attempts (16.3) and field-goal percentage (45.8%. While Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson are putting together strong campaigns, George shouldn’t be overlooked.
Johnson has the second-shortest odds to win this award behind Deni Avdija (-120), both well ahead of Keyonte George (+800) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (10-1). Of the two favorites, Johnson is still plus-money, so he has more reward for, in my opinion, at least an equal chance to win. Avdija’s statistics have plateaued, or in the case of assists, decreased as his point guard teammates have gotten healthy. Johnson’s stats, on the other hand, have been on the rise after the Hawks traded away point guard Trae Young. Johnson is a walking double-double, and if both continue at current trends, Johnson could have the more compelling statistical argument by the end of the season.
The Hornets enter the All-Star Break as hot as any team in the NBA, winners of 10 of their past 11 games, with recent wins over powers like the Spurs, the Rockets and Nuggets. The young talent on the team has really come together, with Rookie of the Year candidate Kon Knueppel joining Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges as impact players. They also recently traded for Coby White, giving them even more firepower once he is healthy and worked into the rotation. The Hornets’ winning ways have brought them up to the ninth seed in the East, well within the play-in range, and if they keep winning they could move up further before the season is out with a good chance of winning in the play-in to move into the playoffs.
The Pistons have been the top seed in the Eastern Conference all season, but the general consensus seems to be that they are still a good “upstart” team than the blue blood contenders. But while the Thunder (-310 for most wins) were by far the best team for the first couple months of the season with a 24-1 record as of Dec. 10, they have really slowed down in recent months to the tune of an 18-12 record since. The Pistons, on the other hand, are 21-8 in that same span and have overtaken the Thunder for the best record in the league. The two teams have similar strengths of record for the remainder of the season, so if recent trends continue, the Pistons have a strong chance to hold their lead for the rest of the season.
The Heat entered the break with a 29-27 record and on pace for 42 wins. Their play has trended slightly downward of late, with a 9-11 record in their last 20 games that would be a 37-win pace for a full season. Per BPI, the Heat have played the ninth-easiest strength of schedule in the NBA thus far but have the single most difficult schedule in the NBA for the rest of the way. This all projects to the Heat having more difficulty even maintaining their pre-break pace, and they would need to improve on their pre-break win percentage to notch 44 or more wins.
There has been a buzz all season that Giannis Antetokounmpo might be traded before the deadline, but the Bucks held on to their superstar. Giannis has been out since late January with a strained calf, and many seemed to assume that he might be shut down so the Bucks could lose enough to get a better draft pick. However, ESPN’s Jamal Collier reported that neither Giannis nor the Bucks have any intention of shutting him down, and in fact he is looking to come back on the shorter end of the 4-6 week timeline he gave after his injury. The Bucks added Cam Thomas from the free agent market and he is proving to be an impact player. The team has won five of their last six games and only trail the Hawks by 1.5 games for the 10th seed and final play-in spot. If Giannis does play the majority of the remainder of the season they have a great chance to make the play-in, and at +500 there is solid juice if they do.
The Knicks enter the All-Star Break with a record of 35-20, so they would need to win 18 of their remaining 27 games (66.7% win rate) to reach 53 wins. The Knicks started the season 19-7 (73.1% win rate), then had a multi-week swoon after winning the NBA Cup, going 6-11 from Dec. 19 through Jan. 19. They have since righted the ship, though, going 10-2 in their past 12 games before the break. Anecdotally, all three NBA Cup winners had losing stretches after winning the Cup, so if we assume the Knicks’ struggles were a short-term fluke, then the team moving forward should be more similar to the one that started the season and entered the break with a combined 20-9 record and won the Cup. If they exit the break playing at anywhere near that level, they have a strong chance to get at least 53 wins, which is solid value at plus money.