North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack: Game Highlights (1:16)North Carolina Tar Heels vs. NC State Wolfpack: Game Highlights (1:16)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Alabama Crimson Tide Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats
Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have “work to do.”
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference) Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10) Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant with their consensus at-large odds sitting below 50%. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Iowa was looking like a potential “lock” candidate after winning six in a row, but the Hawkeyes’ at-large chances have fallen after back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue. The Hawkeyes still own a résumé in the mid-30s nationally, and they are borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings, both of which bode well for their tournament hopes. But their schedule gets more difficult, jumping from 63rd so far to ninth from here on nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI.
Coming off a run of five wins in six games — including three over Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents — Indiana’s hot streak cooled with a 20-point loss at Illinois on Sunday. The Hoosiers remain the darlings of the forecast models, which average out to give them a conditional at-large probability north of 80%, and their portfolio holds up next to other bubble teams in what’s looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. With a borderline top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics and the seventh-hardest remaining schedule in the conference, they have a chance to keep building their case.
A stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80% — but that hot streak cooled off in a recent tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive games. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the 40s nationally, and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. But even if the conference gets 10 bids, it’s no longer as clear that the Bruins would be in line for one of the last of those, especially since difficult matchups against Illinois and Nebraska remain.
Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large chances below 60%. If the season ended today, they would still likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. Of course, their main problem remains future results. which is why the models are less bullish. USC is a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 23rd most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman’s team.
Auburn’s fortunes continued to slide with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. While the Tigers’ four straight defeats have come against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they have dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and complicated what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call, though the BPI is projecting them to potentially not even reach 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
In the highest-leverage bubble showdown on Saturday’s slate, the Longhorns beat Missouri convincingly on the road to continue a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections. They graduate from “work to do” to “should be in” as a result, with the consensus forecast giving them a 77% at-large chance after the victory. The Longhorns are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (borderline top 50 nationally), but their results are catching up with their predictive rating, which consistently has been in the top 40. They still face a tough slate with four of their final six regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents. Their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids, but the Longhorns are in vastly better shape now than at any point in the past six weeks.
After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Dawgs have been on the decline, notching their fifth loss in six games after a second-half collapse at Oklahoma on Saturday. They have fallen from a 97% consensus at-large chance to 66% in the past three weeks and now sit 40th in the overall résumé rankings — with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50 — and eighth in résumé average amid what is looking like a nine- or 10-bid SEC. The recent jump in schedule difficulty has taken its toll, with plenty of tough matchups left.
The Hurricanes are officially on a roll in ACC play after three straight résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and, on Tuesday night, fellow Bubble Watch entry Virginia Tech. Their at-large odds had already pulled roughly even with SMU’s going into the day, with Miami boasting the superior résumé quality (seventh in the ACC vs. eighth for the Mustangs), and the Hurricanes’ consensus model at-large chances is up roughly 30% over the past three weeks, a very positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 68th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (of which they already have four). With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight NCAA bids, the Canes are now in good shape to grab one of those.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really starts with who could be the seventh bid. The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but they regained some of it with Tuesday’s crucial win over bubble rival TCU. The victory pushed their full-season projection back over 20 wins, and helped them close back in on the top 30 in the résumé average. (A good place to be, since no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50). With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference, the Knights are back in the driver’s seat even if the Big 12 only receives 7 bids, at least for now.
The Horned Frogs had played themselves into a serious battle for one of the Big 12’s final at-large nods with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. But that progress hit a snag with Tuesday’s loss at UCF, a result that put a serious dent in their tournament odds. Not that TCU’s case isn’t interesting: Although it sits with a consensus at-large chance in the 35-40% range, the Horned Frogs have five Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State) and one last chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team, but if seven is the conference’s magic number, TCU is in trouble.
West Virginia still faces an uphill battle to return to the tournament for the first time since 2023, but its win at UCF on Saturday certainly helps. The model consensus still sets the Mountaineers’ chances at an at-large bid around 25%, and they are barely flirting with the top 60 in résumé rankings while only a little better in the predictive ranking. But they do have four wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — and will have a chance to control their destiny by adding more in the coming weeks.
Just when the season seemed to be slipping away from Shaheen Holloway and his team with six losses in eight games, Seton Hall outlasted Providence on Wednesday then scored a résumé-boosting comeback win on Sunday at Butler in a game that would have plunged the Pirates into “long shot” territory had they lost. They still have a steep hill to climb, with at-large chances sitting below 30% in the forecast composite while ranking outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only two Quadrant 1 wins. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, though the Pirates will have a couple of opportunities to pad their résumé if they can upset UConn (Feb. 28) or St. John’s (March 6).
