Greg WyshynskiFeb 17, 2026, 08:20 PM ETCloseGreg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play1:16USA men’s hockey faces challenging road aheadGreg Wyshynski breaks down the U.S. men’s hockey team’s potential path to Olympic gold.
play0:39Jake Sanderson: U.S. men’s hockey is improving ‘every single game’Emily Kaplan speaks with Jake Sanderson, Clayton Keller and Brock Faber after the U.S. men’s hockey team finishes group play undefeated.
USA men’s hockey preparing for quarterfinals game (0:58)Emily Kaplan details Team USA men’s hockey’s preparations for their quarterfinal game. (0:58)
USA men’s hockey faces challenging road aheadGreg Wyshynski breaks down the U.S. men’s hockey team’s potential path to Olympic gold.
Jake Sanderson: U.S. men’s hockey is improving ‘every single game’Emily Kaplan speaks with Jake Sanderson, Clayton Keller and Brock Faber after the U.S. men’s hockey team finishes group play undefeated.
Emily Kaplan speaks with Jake Sanderson, Clayton Keller and Brock Faber after the U.S. men’s hockey team finishes group play undefeated.
The United States and Canada are on opposite sides of the 2026 Olympic men’s hockey tournament bracket, meaning their next battle would have to be for the gold medal.
Will that happen? Now that the qualification round is over, the road there is a lot tougher for one of them than the other.
Here’s how I see the Olympic men’s medal round shaking out, with one big upset and some great hockey to be witnessed. Stats are courtesy of HockeyStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Martin Necas had a great comment after the Czechs won their qualification round game against Denmark: “We let them win the first one because we knew we were not going to win two in a row against Canada.”
Necas has been awesome for Czechia. The Colorado Avalanche winger’s seven points through four games ties him with Jaromir Jagr (seven in 2006) for the second most by a Czech player in a single Olympic tournament. He’s one point behind Martin Straka (eight in 2006) for the record. The question is whether Necas, or any of his teammates, will generate a goal against Canada, because even one would be an improvement over their first meeting.
Canada shut out Czechia 5-0 in the opening game of Group A. The Czechs played them tough for 19 minutes, 54 seconds before Macklin Celebrini scored on that perfect tip of a Cale Makar shot to break their will at the end of the first period. Eventually, it was all Canada, outshooting the Czechs 14-3 in the third period.
WINNER: Canada. Fans with long memories might shudder at Canada playing the Czechs, who infamously eliminated the Canadians in a medal round shootout in 1998, the first Olympics with NHL players. History will not repeat itself, even if Necas & Co. have lulled Canada into a false sense of security.
The Swedes have been trending in a scary direction for the Americans over the past two games. They took over their game against Slovakia over the last two periods in the group-play finale, earning a qualification round date against Latvia. And then they dispatched Latvia with relative ease to set up perhaps the Americans’ toughest challenge as the U.S. looks to earn a rematch with Canada.
Where the Americans have the advantage is at center, where Sweden really misses having a player such as Leo Carlsson, who missed the Olympics because of injury.
Also concerning: Sweden might have found its goaltender in Jacob Markstrom, who has been solid in their past two games but will be playing on back-to-back days should he get the nod against the U.S.
There are two things the U.S. will need to excel at to beat the Swedes. The first is managing the puck. The Swedes are too opportunistic to turn the puck over in the defensive or neutral zones. The Americans have been pretty good with this during the tournament. The other imperative is physicality and antagonism. This needs to be a game where the line of Brady and Matthew Tkachuk, and center Jack Eichel create chaos in the Swedish zone — before and after the whistle.
The key will be the first period: Team USA has started slowly in group play. They can’t give a veteran team like this any confidence with an early lead. Ultimately, the Americans’ offensive depth wins out. But it would not be a surprise to see Sweden ruin the U.S. vs. Canada rematch party, and relish that it did.
Greg Wyshynski breaks down the U.S. men’s hockey team’s potential path to Olympic gold.
Germany built a 3-0 lead over France in the first period of their qualification-round game, then got bored and played passive the rest of the way, with the French holding a 27-23 advantage in shots on goal in the final two periods. Germany had only one win in Group C play — over Denmark — but had the tiebreakers to earn the second-highest seed behind the U.S.
Ottawa Senators star Tim Stutzle centers the other line, and was tied for the tournament lead in goals (four) after four games. JJ Peterka of the Utah Mammoth, who’s had a really strong tournament, is on his right and Joshua Samanski, in the Edmonton Oilers’ system, is on the other wing.
Defenseman Moritz Seider is a Norris Trophy contender for the Detroit Red Wings, and has been an absolute rock for the Germans on the blue line, the only player over 100 minutes in total ice time through four games.
Seattle Kraken goalie Philipp Grubauer was fourth in goals saved above average (2.14) and sixth in save percentage (.934) through three starts, although he didn’t face Team USA. He has been arguably the comeback player of the year in the NHL statistically. Without question, he is one of those goalies who could lead an upset on the right day.
Slafkovsky and his center Adam Ruzicka are two of three players with multiple goals for Slovakia, the other being third-liner Dalibor Dvorsky. Former NHL player Tomas Tatar, who has played with Slafkovsky, has one assist in three games.
This game boils down to whether Slovak goalie Samuel Hlavaj can keep the dam from breaking again. A minor leaguer for the Minnesota Wild, he made 46 saves against Sweden and 39 saves against Finland. He’s third in the tournament in goals saved above average (2.14). Then again, Germany isn’t the same shot-attempt generating team that the Swedes and Finns are, at least in this tournament.
It’s not exactly easy to get a handle on the Finns after group play. They were humbled by Slovakia in the opening game 4-1. They did the humbling of archrival Sweden (4-1) in a physically taxing game. Then they made Italy briefly regret hosting the tournament with an 11-0 humiliation that saw them pump 62 shots on goal.
So who are the Finns? I think they’re the team we saw against Sweden: a pesky, physical group that spreads out its scoring. There were 12 Finland players who earned a point against the Swedes; 14 players had at least a point against the Italians. It’s a team that has gotten as many points out of Joel Armia and Kaapo Kakko (four) as it has out of Mikko Rantanen.
Finland has two extremely solid defense pairings, including one of the best in the NHL: Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, as the Dallas Stars score 58.4% of the goals when they’re on the ice together. The Florida Panthers’ Niko “The Condor” Mikkola and Philadelphia Flyers blueliner Rasmus Ristolainen get the second-most ice time.
Juuse Saros has not had a good NHL season with the Nashville Predators, but he has had a very good Olympics so far for Finland: .946 save percentage and 2.62 goals saved above expected. He stopped 34 of 35 against Sweden, which is no small feat.
The Swiss generate a good number of shot attempts and high-danger chances with an offense led by Timo Meier (seven points in three games); like Team USA’s Jack Hughes, Meier is playing so well that it has made people wonder what’s preventing that from happening with the New Jersey Devils. His Devils teammate Nico Hischier (four points) has been good, while the Swiss have gotten scoring from the back end thanks to Nashville’s Roman Josi (four points) and Tampa Bay’s J.J. Moser (four points).
They will of course miss winger Kevin Fiala, as the Los Angeles Kings star was injured in their loss to Canada and is expected to sit out the rest of the NHL season.
WINNER: Finland. This could end up being the best game of the quarterfinals, but I’ll take the Finns’ depth advantages and ability to lock it down defensively.
Keep in mind that the Olympic hockey tournament is bracketed through the quarterfinals, but then protects its highest seed in the semifinals. Hence, Canada gets the lowest seed still alive in the tournament, which is Germany.
The Germans played the tournament’s other hockey superpower, the United States, in Group C play and lost 5-1 after going down 5-0. They played the Americans tough in the first 19:51 of the game until Zach Werenski’s disheartening goal late in the first period. But Team USA’s depth really took over in the second period, and Germany’s lack of quality depth beyond its few NHL standouts really stood out.
This forward group for Canada is one of the greatest assemblages of talent the Olympics have ever seen:
WINNER: Canada. The spoils go to the team with the perfect record and the best goal differential in group play. Canada rolls to the gold medal game.
How else will the United States get its proper fill of Miracle on Ice-like “overcoming insurmountable odds to play for gold” if not by facing Sweden and then Finland, considered the tournament’s third- and fourth-best teams?
If they get past the Swedes and Germany in fact upsets Slovakia, then the Americans will face the Finns for the right to play for gold. And based on Olympic history, this is not who they want to face. Finland knocked the U.S. out in the quarterfinals in Turin 2006 and won the bronze medal over the Americans in Sochi 2014 after the U.S. blew its game vs. Canada in the semifinals. (The U.S. did thump them 6-1 in the Vancouver 2010 semifinals scoring six times in the first period.)
To state the obvious: This matchup would be a lot more intriguing if Finland had star center Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers, who has sat out the entire NHL season so far after preseason knee surgery. His leadership, his will to win, his defensive game, the way the rest of the lineup would settle in behind him … what could have been.