Rashaun Agee buries basket against Ole Miss Rebels (0:18)Rashaun Agee buries basket against Ole Miss Rebels (0:18)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have “work to do.”
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
The Badgers’ recent run of impressive wins over tough foes (Illinois, Michigan State) finally came to an end Tuesday: Against Ohio State, they fell behind early and never really got within striking distance. Still, they’re in good shape. They own three Quadrant 1A wins on the season, with a résumé that now sits around 30th in the national consensus ranking (sixth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their remaining schedule, 11th hardest in Big Ten, is manageable relative to the conference’s other non-locks. Their consensus at-large probability also sits at 97%. The Badgers ought to like their tourney trajectory.
After back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue ate into its at-large chances, Iowa got back on track with a big résumé-boosting Quadrant 1A win over Nebraska on Tuesday. What also helps is a résumé in the mid-to-low-30s nationally and being borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — both of which bode well for the Hawkeyes’ tournament hopes. Their remaining schedule is no cupcake, jumping from 60th so far to 12th from here on nationally (fourth hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI. That said, Iowa’s consensus at-large chance (96%) in the models remains very high.
Coming off a run of five wins in six games — including three over Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents — Indiana’s hot streak cooled with a 20-point loss at Illinois on Sunday. The Hoosiers remain the darlings of the forecast models, which average out to give them a conditional at-large probability north of 80%, and their portfolio holds up next to other bubble teams in what’s looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. With a borderline top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics and the seventh-hardest remaining schedule in the conference, they have a chance to keep building their case.
A stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80%, but that hot streak cooled off in a recent tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive games. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the 40s nationally, and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. But even if the conference gets 10 bids, it’s no longer as clear that the Bruins would be in line for one of the last of those, especially since difficult matchups against Illinois and Nebraska remain.
If losing to Georgia was enough to dip Kentucky down from the “locks,” then beating the Wildcats was enough to elevate the Dawgs to “should be in” territory. It’s been a roller coaster for UGA already this season: After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Bulldogs lost five of their next six and fell from a 97% consensus at-large chance to 66% in the span of three weeks. But those odds are up to 84% again after they grabbed their first Quadrant 1A win of the year at Kentucky. Georgia now sits 40th in the overall résumé rankings — with six wins against the BPI top 50 — and eighth in résumé average within the conference. Now mostly through a string of exceptionally tough matchups, it has the SEC’s easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI.
The Longhorns kept their hot streak rolling, following up Saturday’s impressive win at Mizzou by surviving LSU on Tuesday for a fifth straight win. Continuing a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections, the consensus forecast now gives them an 80% at-large chance after the victory, up from 54% two weeks ago. They’re still ninth in the conference in the résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), but their results have been catching up with their predictive rating, which has consistently been in the top 40 by contrast. They still face a tough slate, with four of their final five regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, so their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids. But Texas has made a strong case for itself in recent weeks.
The Aggies’ odds have been tumbling recently after they dropped four straight, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” The spiral seemed likely to continue Wednesday when they had only a 9.2% chance of beating Ole Miss, down 10 with under seven minutes to go — but a remarkable comeback followed, providing A&M a hugely important win for its tournament hopes. The Aggies are still 10th in the résumé ranking average out of what’s looking like a 10-bid conference, so they are right on the bubble. But sometimes simply avoiding a bad loss (by any means necessary) is a good development.
Auburn’s fortunes continued to slide with Wednesday’s failed-comeback loss to Mississippi State, its fifth defeat in a row. While four of the Tigers’ losses in that span have come against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they really needed to take care of business as a road favorite in Starkville. The skid has dropped Auburn to 5-8 in SEC play and is very much complicating what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most-difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call more often than not, though the BPI is projecting them to finish the regular season with just 17 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
The Hurricanes are officially on a roll in ACC play after three straight résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and, on Tuesday night, fellow Bubble Watch entry Virginia Tech. Their at-large odds had already pulled roughly even with SMU’s going into the day, with Miami boasting the superior résumé quality (seventh in the ACC vs. eighth for the Mustangs), and the Hurricanes’ consensus model at-large chances are up roughly 30% over the past three weeks, a very positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 68th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (of which they already have four). With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight NCAA bids, the Canes are now in good shape to grab one of those.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really starts with who could be the seventh bid. The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but they regained some of it with Tuesday’s crucial win over bubble rival TCU. The victory pushed their full-season projection back over 20 wins and helped them close back in on the top 30 in the résumé average. (That’s a good place to be, since no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50.) With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference, the Knights are back in the driver’s seat even if the Big 12 receives only seven bids, at least for now.
The Horned Frogs had played themselves into a serious battle for one of the Big 12’s final at-large nods with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. But that progress hit a snag with Tuesday’s loss at UCF, a result that put a serious dent in their tournament odds. Not that TCU’s case isn’t interesting: Although it sits with a consensus at-large chance in the range of 35% to 40%, the Horned Frogs have five Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State) and one last chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team, but if seven is the conference’s magic number, TCU is in trouble.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. But Tuesday’s loss at Rhode Island did put a dent in their at-large odds, dropping them to 87% — which is how they’ve ended up back in the “should be in” zone. For now. Saint Louis ranks top 25 nationally in the résumé rankings and 24th in the predictive ratings, so it’s still hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But the next game, against red-hot VCU, suddenly takes on more significance than it seemed a few days ago.
Saint Mary’s survived a scare Wednesday night against an upset-minded Seattle, but the Gaels were able to hold on to push their winning streak to five in a row. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 32nd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 86% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.