Seth WalderFeb 25, 2026, 06:20 AM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple Authors
play1:15The Aaron Rodgers predicament facing Mike McCarthyJeff Saturday and Jason McCourty discuss Aaron Rodgers’ short-term impact and the Steelers’ long-term QB plan.
play2:00Is Fernando Mendoza not throwing at combine a big deal?Mike Tannenbaum and Dan Graziano examine Fernando Mendoza’s potential combine week after his decision not to throw there.
Could we see Kirk Cousins return to the Vikings? (1:16)The “Get Up” crew wonders whether Kirk Cousins could return to the Minnesota Vikings next season. (1:16)
The Aaron Rodgers predicament facing Mike McCarthyJeff Saturday and Jason McCourty discuss Aaron Rodgers’ short-term impact and the Steelers’ long-term QB plan.
Jeff Saturday and Jason McCourty discuss Aaron Rodgers’ short-term impact and the Steelers’ long-term QB plan.
Is Fernando Mendoza not throwing at combine a big deal?Mike Tannenbaum and Dan Graziano examine Fernando Mendoza’s potential combine week after his decision not to throw there.
Mike Tannenbaum and Dan Graziano examine Fernando Mendoza’s potential combine week after his decision not to throw there.
The Vikings must decide if they want a quarterback to come in to replace, compete with or back up J.J. McCarthy. The Cardinals must determine whether Kyler Murray has played his last snap with the team. Do the Colts want to combine an injured Daniel Jones with a short-term solution? And who might the Dolphins and the Jets turn to for hope?
I wonder if the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl with Sam Darnold at quarterback will be good for the reclamation quarterback market. And frankly, Murray is a much less daunting proposition now than Darnold was when he signed with the Vikings two years ago.
Though Murray’s play dropped off last season, he’s only one year removed from a 63.4 QBR in 2024, the ninth best that season. That was his second top-10 QBR campaign, after ranking seventh in 2021.
Some might clamor to give Shedeur Sanders more development time, but I think that would be a mistake. A fifth-round pick whose 18.9 QBR would have been by far the worst in the league had he played enough to qualify ought to be considered the longest of shots, so the Browns should be pursuing other quarterback options.
Despite Cleveland boasting a similarly strong defense, it would be overly optimistic to compare the 2026 Browns to the 2025 Seahawks. Cleveland is in much worse shape than Seattle was a year ago because its offensive roster is completely lacking — it needs an entire O-line! — even if the Browns acquire Murray and he regains his previous form. But remember, this could be a multiyear arrangement, as Murray has three years left on his contract. It’s a bet worth making for the Browns.
Let me be the millionth person to connect the Packers’ backup quarterback to the Dolphins, but I think Miami is Willis’ most likely landing spot.
Miami’s new brain trust consists of two former Packers in general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley. While I think NFL coaches and front office personnel dramatically overemphasize the importance of previously working with a player, there’s no denying it plays a huge role in personnel decisions. Therefore, I think it absolutely increases the probability Willis ends up in Miami.
Willis’ results in his limited time across 2024 and 2025 were incredible. He posted an 86.3 QBR in that span, a plus-7% completion percentage over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats), zero interceptions (three fumbles, though) and 9.2 yards per dropback. He scrambled on 13% of his dropbacks and had 17 designed rushes.
But he started only three games, so the Dolphins would be basing their 2026 starting quarterback decision on an extremely small sample size. And those three games came under coach Matt LaFleur, an elite offensive designer. So, there certainly is risk. But there’s also upside.
The Vikings managed 14 wins in 2024 with a quarterback (Darnold) who ranked only 14th in QBR. While they won’t always have a defense as dominant as that team had, I have to imagine Minnesota is hankering for palatable quarterback play.
The Jets were the hardest team for me to predict in this exercise. There are so many feasible candidates.
New York certainly could be a landing place for a non-Mendoza rookie quarterback, and it would make sense for the Jets to be in the Willis sweepstakes. If they want a stable veteran, perhaps the Jets would look at Cousins or Derek Carr, though neither would be the necessary long-term solution. Or New York could contemplate a few trade candidates, with Mac Jones, Tanner McKee and Rattler among them.
Though he ultimately gave way to rookie Tyler Shough, Rattler was solid last season in New Orleans. He recorded a 50.3 QBR and a plus-3% completion percentage over expected, and his 9% off-target rate was the lowest among all QBs with at least 100 pass attempts. The former fifth-round pick is entering his third season, so he could still improve. And Rattler likely would cost less on the trade market than Jones, as well.
Let’s start with the first point. I suspect the Colts want to bring Jones back but would likely prefer to sign him to a multiyear deal considering he is unlikely to play until late 2026 at the earliest. But the Colts have some leverage. As much as they might need Jones, the Colts also offer him a better path to starting again in a situation where he’s had more success than anywhere else. They would probably offer him more money than anyone else due to that success.
But if the Colts bring Jones back, they’ll need another QB to start the season. And they would want it to be someone who they can win with in the short and medium term — but probably not someone who would cost too much or that they would have to commit to beyond 2026.
Because Minshew star’s has fallen, he would be a cheap option for the Colts to pair with second-year QB Riley Leonard while they wait for Jones to heal.
The Cardinals don’t have to move on from Murray, and with a new regime coming in, maybe they won’t. But the vibes from last season pointed to a quarterback change and Brissett is the most likely Week 1 starter, even if only as a bridge after starting 12 games in 2025. Murray is currently slated to make $42.5 million in cash, per OverTheCap.com, so if the Cardinals are able to trade him they would save all or part of that by turning to the much cheaper Brissett (due $5.4 million in cash).
Though Brissett averaged 280.5 passing yards in his starts last season, that number was more an indication of how often he passed than his true efficiency, as his 41.2 QBR was well below average. But he can serve as a short-term fix. The Cardinals could draft Alabama’s Ty Simpson — perhaps late in the first round or in the second — and Brissett could start the 2026 season before yielding to the rookie.
Penix suffered a torn ACL in November, so his status for the season opener is in question. Also, what kind of player will the Falcons get when he returns to the field? Penix was inconsistent last season, producing a QBR of 83 or higher in four of his nine games … and a 31 or lower in four others.
I don’t think Rodgers’ return is a foregone conclusion, but Mike McCarthy’s introductory news conference pushed me to thinking it will happen. When asked if he wanted Rodgers back, McCarthy said, “I mean, definitely. I don’t see why you wouldn’t.”
Despite McCarthy’s comment, there are plenty of reasons why the Steelers might not want Rodgers back. He’s a 42-year-old quarterback who was last an above-average starter in 2021 (to be fair, he did win MVP that season). And Rodgers must decide if he wants to play football in 2026 too.
Pittsburgh can rely on its defense, and with a smart addition or two, things could break right when coupled with a turnover-averse Rodgers — even if his upside is severely limited at this point of his career. Perhaps that’s why they aren’t ready to tear it all down just yet.
After winning the MVP in 2023 and almost winning it in 2024, Jackson had a down season in 2025 in which he missed a few games and wasn’t quite himself when he played. Now Jackson will be in a new system under offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, but there should be high confidence that he can return to form in 2026.
The Bills have it better than perhaps anyone else at the game’s most important position, as Allen would arguably be the QB1 in a leaguewide quarterback redraft. Allen is coming off a “down” year in which he still got a couple of MVP votes. He finished only seventh in QBR, but his receiving options weren’t great. If Allen is on the field, the Bills have a good chance to win any game, no matter the opponent.
He showed enough to be the starter again in 2026 and have his fifth-year option picked up in 2027. But the Panthers should be hesitant to commit to Young beyond that until he shows more growth.
Williams took a big step in his second season and delivered some truly unforgettable throws during Chicago’s improbable run to the divisional round of the playoffs. There are still accuracy questions — Williams ranked last among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks in both off-target rate and completion percentage over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats). But the Bears know they can win with Williams at the helm.
A toe injury derailed more than half of Burrow’s 2025 campaign, helping extend the Bengals’ frustrating three-year streak of missing the playoffs. If Cincinnati can get a healthy Burrow and also improve its defense to support him, the Bengals will be back in the postseason.
Prescott’s exceptional play last season was overshadowed by the Cowboys missing the playoffs. He ranked fifth in QBR and third in completion percentage over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats) despite playing with the lead on only 26% of his snaps. If the Cowboys’ defense can improve to merely average and Prescott maintains his 2025 level of play, Dallas should easily return to the postseason.