Miami (Ohio) improves to 29-0 on Trey Perry’s last-second shot (1:49)Trey Perry sinks a last-second shot to complete the RedHawks’ comeback win and preserve their undefeated season. (1:49)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance any team not listed here will make the Big Dance without winning its conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan Wolverines Purdue Boilermakers Illinois Fighting Illini Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans Wisconsin Badgers
Arizona Wildcats Iowa State Cyclones Houston Cougars Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Belmont’s case for at-large consideration continues to grow after the Bruins cruised past Evansville for their 13th win in 14 games. They lead the nation in effective FG% and are a top-50 team in our résumé composite. Though they don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins, they’ll get one more chance to improve on their 5-1 record against Quadrant 2 teams: against Illinois State on March 1.
Three consecutive losses — to Florida, Georgia and Auburn — meant we had to downgrade Kentucky from a “lock” recently, but the Wildcats got back to business with a win at South Carolina on Tuesday. Their résumé features five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, and is still comfortably sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the latest Bracketology. Even with 10 losses, it helps that seven came to Quadrant 1A foes. A bigger concern is that they still have one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, with all three games against Quadrant 1 foes (including a Quadrant 1A in Florida).
The Aggies recently found themselves downgraded from “should be in” to “work to do,” but a remarkable comeback against Ole Miss followed by a solid victory at Oklahoma helped their tournament hopes. With Wednesday’s one-sided loss at Arkansas, though, their consensus at-large chances stay in the mid-70% range. They rank ninth in the résumé average out of what’s looking like a 10- to 11-bid SEC, so they are on the right side of the bubble, but Bucky McMillan’s squad probably needs to bolster their case against Texas, Kentucky and/or LSU to close the regular season.
Leading Florida by three points with 7:27 to play Wednesday, Texas was outscored 23-7 down the stretch for its second consecutive loss. The Longhorns’ five-game winning streak is disappearing in the rearview mirror, with the consensus forecast now setting their at-large chances in the at 63% — up from 45% earlier in the month but down from 81% a week ago. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than Texas A&M, but they’re also neck and neck with Missouri for 10th among SEC teams in the résumé rankings (mid-40s nationally). Even after losing to Georgia and Florida, two of their final three regular-season contests are against Quad 1 opponents, so their tournament fate still hangs in the balance.
The Tigers stopped their five-game losing streak with Saturday’s dramatic victory over Kentucky, but the relief turned out to be only temporary — they lost again at Oklahoma on Tuesday to cast more doubt on their tournament outlook. They still have a fascinating case: Although all but one of their recent losses came against Quadrant 1 opponents, they have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI and remain top 40 in the national résumé ranking average. But those mounting losses do matter, and teams most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not. Whatever happens, they will be an interesting litmus test for what the committee values.
After a stretch of three losses in four games, Iowa rebounded with a big statement win while hosting Ohio State on Wednesday. Now the Hawkeyes’ at-large chances sit around 98%, a strong position to be in. Their résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes are in good shape. Their remaining schedule won’t be easy; after Saturday’s trip to Penn State, they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska. But they shouldn’t need either of those upsets to round out their résumé.
After consecutive losses on their Michigan tour halted their momentum — five wins in six games — the Bruins have bounced back. On Saturday, they beat visiting No. 10 Illinois in overtime on Donovan Dent’s coast-to-coast layup, then took down crosstown bubble rival USC by 19 behind Dent’s 30 points on Tuesday. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins on the season (two Q1-A) and their résumé ranks borderline top 40 nationally, converging with a predictive rating that has been better than their résumé indicated for most of the year. Even if the Big Ten gets only nine bids, the Bruins would appear to be in line for one of the last of those — they rank eighth on the conference’s résumé list — and their consensus at-large odds are now 91% in the forecast models.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams — they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a nine-bid conference — and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
When we noted that the Buckeyes needed more consistency after alternating wins and losses for so long, they were looking for a winning streak — not the back-to-back losses they got against Michigan State and Iowa this week. Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings — right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Q1-A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large.
The Mustangs improved their projections last week with back-to-back wins over Louisville and Boston College, but Wednesday’s loss at California slowed that momentum a bit. They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth (as opposed to eighth) in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Now SMU’s consensus at-large chances are 89% — narrowly ahead of the Hurricanes and Tigers at 87% each — though all three teams are well clear of Cal (35%) and Virginia Tech (26%), who stand as its closest bubble rivals within the conference. The Mustangs do have the most challenging schedule of the three, with trips to Stanford and FSU sandwiched around a head-to-head against Miami.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play lately, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech with another Quadrant 1 win over Florida State on Tuesday. Their at-large chances are now above those of Clemson and not far from SMU’s, though all three teams are bunched closely together in the mid-30s of the national résumé quality ranking — the trio makes up Nos. 6-8 in the ACC in that regard, with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be non-tournament teams in an eight-bid conference. The BPI has Miami projected to win nearly 24 games now, so the Canes are in good shape.
Clemson has gotten ice-cold at the wrong time. The Tigers had been an ACC “lock” since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks — until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference’s pecking order according to the odds.
Cal’s tourney chances remain somewhat distant, but victories over Boston College, Stanford and, most importantly, SMU on Wednesday have the Golden Bears moving in the right direction. They still sit outside the nation’s top-50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have five Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. That doesn’t leave many more signature-win chances, aside from a Quadrant 1 visit to Wake Forest in the finale. With a consensus at-large probability of 35%, the Bears have to bolster their case further.
Regrouping from the disappointment of Tuesday’s loss to Miami, the Hokies bested Wake Forest by 19 on Saturday to keep their bubble case in play. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances are still south of 30%, suggesting they are in serious limbo if they don’t knock off North Carolina and/or Virginia as well in the next couple of weeks.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of five double-figure scorers led by bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. After they came back to beat bubble rival VCU by 13 points Friday, they turned around and suffered their ugliest loss of the year: by 15 points at Dayton. The positives are that Saint Louis still ranks top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings and even better in the predictive ratings, so it’s hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But there will be lessons to learn from Tuesday’s loss.