Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels: Game Highlights (1:19)Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels: Game Highlights (1:19)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats
Losses at Arkansas and Texas have sent Texas A&M’s at-large chances tumbling, putting the Aggies at 68% in the consensus models. They do have three Quadrant 1-A wins and are 10th in the conference résumé rankings (42nd nationally), but comparing that résumé against fellow SEC bubble teams Texas and Auburn still won’t be an easy task for the committee. They close out the regular season against Kentucky and LSU.
Michigan Wolverines Purdue Boilermakers Illinois Fighting Illini Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans Wisconsin Badgers
The Bruins’ brief winning streak against Illinois and crosstown bubble rival USC came to an end on Saturday at Minnesota. Despite picking up their 10th loss, they have three Quadrant 1 victories on the season, placing their résumé eighth in what Bracketology projects to be a nine-bid Big Ten. Their consensus at-large odds remain a tick below 90% in the forecast models.
A three-game winning streak to open February had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but five straight losses — including to a ranked Nebraska team on Saturday — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 14%. They have the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be just a nine-bid conference.
Virginia Tech’s big win over Wake Forest last week kept its bubble case in play, but Saturday’s loss at North Carolina was the Hokies’ fifth in seven games and dropped their consensus at-large chances into the teens. They have a case to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But with a 7-9 ACC record now, they are very much in limbo.
Arizona Wildcats Iowa State Cyclones Houston Cougars Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Coming off its ugliest loss of the season — by 15 points at Dayton — Saint Louis had to hold off Duquesne on Saturday to avoid a third loss in four games. The Billikens have been a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, and aren’t in much danger of not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary. They are still top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, and rank even better in the predictive ratings.
Seeking a third straight tournament bid for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico got closer to that reality on Saturday after avenging its Jan. 17 loss to San Diego. The Lobos’ chances are still around a coin flip based on their borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but they have more Quadrant 1 and 2 wins than the Aztecs and have now evened the head-to-head scales.
Belmont’s case for at-large consideration continues to grow after the Bruins cruised past Evansville for their 13th win in 14 games. They lead the nation in effective FG% and are a top-50 team in our résumé composite. Though they don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins, they’ll get one more chance to improve on their 5-1 record against Quadrant 2 teams: against Illinois State on March 1.
The Bulls break into the Bubble Watch after winning nine of their past 10 games, including six straight, to bring their consensus at-large chance into the double digits at 10%. They’re 20-8 overall with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and they rank 53rd in the national résumé average. Their at-large odds are long without many remaining chances to bolster their case — their best remaining game is at Quadrant 2 Memphis — but they are undeniably on a hot streak.
Georgia rebounded from a failed comeback bid at Vanderbilt to beat South Carolina on Saturday for its third win in four games, boosting the Dawgs’ consensus at-large chances to 95%. They now sit mid-30s in the overall résumé rankings, with four wins against Quadrant 1 foes, ranking seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Mostly on the other side of a challenging stretch of games, Georgia will close the regular season hosting Alabama before visiting Mississippi State in the finale.
Coming off an important win over Tennessee, Missouri got another on Saturday at Mississippi State in its sixth victory in eight games. The Tigers have now cracked the top nine of SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, they do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (19-9 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th hardest vs. fourth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as they sit in the high 80% range with two Quadrant 1 games left to close the regular season.
After blowing a second-half lead to Florida for its second consecutive loss earlier this week, Texas got a massive road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday. It gave the Longhorns a sixth Quadrant 1 win for the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even “lock” Tennessee) can boast. The consensus forecast sets their at-large chances at 81%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. At No. 11 in the SEC résumé rankings, they are still neck and neck with Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn (all are borderline top-40 nationally), so their tournament fate is still not assured, but past teams with similar résumés all made the tourney.
With Wednesday’s victory over fellow Big Ten bubble team Ohio State barely in the rearview, Iowa let Saturday’s game against Penn State slip away late as a big favorite. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes remain in relatively good shape. But the trip to State College was supposed to be the easy leg of their remaining schedule, as they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska.
When we noted that the Buckeyes needed more consistency after alternating wins and losses for so long, they were looking for a winning streak — not the back-to-back losses they got against Michigan State and Iowa this week. Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings — right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Quadrant 1A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams — they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a nine-bid conference — and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State with a one-sided win over Boston College on Saturday. Their at-large chances (near 90%) and national résumé quality ranking (around top 30) are bunched up next to SMU and Clemson — the trio all fit within the top eight of the ACC with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be an eight-bid conference. A couple of tough opponents are next in SMU and Louisville, but the Canes are in good shape.
The Mustangs improved their projections over the past few weeks, but back-to-back losses at California and Stanford slowed that momentum. They have been neck and neck with Miami and Clemson, jockeying for the sixth position in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Despite the defeats, SMU’s consensus at-large chances are in the 80% range, not too far from the Hurricanes and the Tigers; and all three teams are well clear of the conference’s “work to do” tier featuring Cal and Virginia Tech. The Mustangs will try to get back on track against Miami then Florida State.
With recent wins over TCU, Utah and BYU, the Knights had a chance to strengthen their résumé against Baylor on Saturday, but their attempted comeback fell short when they committed a late three-shot foul. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even better than No. 45 — they still easily own that seventh slot. They’ll look to rebound as favorites against Oklahoma State before closing out the regular season with what could be a résumé-padding opportunity at West Virginia.
The Horned Frogs continue to make a run for the Big 12’s final at-large bid with their sixth win in seven games, topping Kansas State on the road Saturday. Although their consensus at-large chances are in the 50% range, they have four Quadrant 1 wins with an opportunity to add one more at Texas Tech on Tuesday. The Frogs have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team even with Cincinnati surging, as their overall résumé is superior to that of the Bearcats, and the latest Bracketology sets the Big 12 with that many entries. If seven ends up being the league’s magic number, though, the Frogs are in trouble.