Matt MillerFeb 28, 2026, 06:00 AM ETCloseMatt Miller is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation’s top pro prospects. A Missouri native, Matt joined ESPN in 2021 and also contributes to SportsCenter, NFL Live and ESPN Radio. Prior to joining ESPN, Matt spent 11 years as a senior draft analyst at Bleacher Report.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play1:26Why Stephen A. still believes in Drake MayeStephen A. Smith explains why he still has faith in Drake Maye despite a “precipitous drop-off” in the postseason for the Patriots.
play1:07Brian Daboll excited to work with Cam WardTurron Davenport explains how excited Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is to work with QB Cam Ward.
Is Fernando Mendoza not throwing at combine a big deal? (2:00)Mike Tannenbaum and Dan Graziano examine Fernando Mendoza’s potential combine week after his decision not to throw there. (2:00)
Why Stephen A. still believes in Drake MayeStephen A. Smith explains why he still has faith in Drake Maye despite a “precipitous drop-off” in the postseason for the Patriots.
Stephen A. Smith explains why he still has faith in Drake Maye despite a “precipitous drop-off” in the postseason for the Patriots.
Brian Daboll excited to work with Cam WardTurron Davenport explains how excited Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is to work with QB Cam Ward.
Turron Davenport explains how excited Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is to work with QB Cam Ward.
Fernando Mendoza had a storybook 2025 season, which started with a transfer from Cal to Indiana and ended with him leading the Hoosiers to their first-ever national championship. That performance, which included a Heisman Trophy, made him the unquestioned QB1 in the 2026 NFL draft. But how does he compare to first-round quarterbacks of the recent past?
I answered that question by stacking all 17 first-round quarterbacks from 2021-2025, then adding Mendoza — my only signal-caller with a first-round grade for 2026 — to the mix. The list includes the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
I polled NFL scouts, decision-makers and analysts to help build the list, and predraft grades were the only consideration here. While I added each quarterback’s pro performance for additional context, it has no bearing on these rankings. This is just those 18 quarterbacks stacked together as if they were all in the same draft class.
So who is No. 1 on the list as the top QB prospect going back five years, and how does Mendoza compare?
Potential is a scary word when it comes to prospects, but Williams was (and still is) loaded with it. At 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, he has excellent arm strength and the ability to create on the move. He’s a true playmaker and an artist, winning the Heisman Trophy in 2022, then throwing for 3,633 yards and accounting for 41 total touchdowns for USC in 2023.
Lawrence was deemed the next great NFL quarterback prospect before even taking a snap for Clemson. The consensus five-star prep recruit became a 2½-year starter for the Tigers, posting a 34-2 record and racking up 90 passing touchdowns in college.
Daniels’ elite deep-ball throwing, ability to gash defenses with his legs and penchant for big plays led to a Heisman Trophy in 2023. The success of that season saw his draft stock rise from a potential Day 3 pick to No. 2 overall. The only concerns with Daniels were related to his leaner 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame, especially considering his aggressive running style. Some scouts also questioned if his breakout season at LSU was simply due to him being 23 years old and facing younger competition.
Daniels silenced those doubts in his historic Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, leading Washington to its first NFC Championship Game since the 1991 season. The Commanders fell off a bit last season, as an array of injuries limited him to seven games. But he looks like one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy.
Maye drew comparisons to Justin Herbert for his size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), arm strength and power as a runner. He improved the North Carolina offense as a redshirt freshman in 2022, throwing for 38 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while also running for seven more scores. Maye’s numbers were less impressive in 2023 (24 passing TDs, nine INTs), but his potential was still outstanding enough for the Commanders to consider Maye at No. 2 before the Patriots got him one pick later.
Maye started 13 games as a rookie in 2024 and played well on a bad 4-13 Patriots team. He took a huge leap in Year 2, leading the NFL in QBR (77.1) while accumulating 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns to eight interceptions. He finished second in MVP voting and led New England to the AFC championship.
At Alabama, Young was a silky-smooth operator in the pocket with expert-level touch and timing. He was tough, poised and creative. His 5-foot-10, 204-pound frame is the only reason he ranked this low on the list — that hurt his predraft evaluation. Young followed up a Heisman-winning 2021 season by throwing for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdown passes and five interceptions for the Crimson Tide in 2022.
He struggled early in his NFL career and was benched early in his second season. But Young rebounded after winning back the starting job, finishing with the 12th-best QBR (65.8) from Week 10 until the end of the 2024 season. He was up-and-down in Year 3, finishing 22nd in QBR (47.6) but also throwing for 3,011 passing yards and 23 touchdowns in leading the Panthers to their first playoff berth in eight seasons.
It might seem like a distant memory now, but there were teams that had Wilson rated higher than Lawrence in the 2021 draft. Wilson played off-platform and off-schedule, dominating defenses with an excellent deep ball and awesome ability to evade pass rushers. He also hit his peak at the right time, coming alive in his junior season and shrugging off injury issues that plagued his first two seasons at BYU.
Wilson has become a cautionary tale after scouts propelled him up boards following a flashy season and flashier pro day workout. He was traded to the Broncos following three rough years in New York in which he threw 23 touchdown passes to 25 interceptions and completed just 57% of his passes. He did not get on the field with Denver in 2024 and made backup cameos in four games with the Dolphins last season.
He hit the ground running in Houston, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 and leading the Texans to playoff wins in each of his first three seasons. It hasn’t been all great, as Stroud had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2024 (12 interceptions and a 46.8 QBR) and threw four interceptions in Houston’s divisional round loss to the Patriots last season.
The top quarterback in the current draft class, Mendoza hasn’t received the hype of former No. 1 overall picks but is deserving of all the love as he enters his predraft cycle. Mendoza is a clean, crisp passer who excels with pinpoint accuracy, on-time decision-making and enough mobility to threaten defenses. “He’ll bore you to death and then beat you by 40 points,” said an AFC East scout.
Mendoza broke out in 2025, throwing for 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdown passes and just six interceptions on his way to the Heisman and a national title. If that sounds a lot like what Joe Burrow did for LSU in his final season before being the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft, it’s for good reason. Like Burrow, Mendoza is at his best in the pocket and seems to level up once defenses rough him up.
McCarthy suffered a knee injury and missed his entire rookie NFL season after battling with Sam Darnold for the starting job during training camp. Injuries and inconsistency were problems for him last season, as he completed only 57.6% of his passes while throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes (11). Therefore, his starting status is tenuous entering the 2026 season.
The 6-foot-4, 224-pound Lance started only 17 games — all against FCS teams — at North Dakota State, including one game in his final season. But that sample size was enough to convince Niners GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan to trade up for him. He wowed scouts with upside and his ability to torch defenses with both his running and field vision.
In three seasons, Richardson has played in 17 of 51 possible games amid injuries, a brief benching in 2024, losing the starting competition to Daniel Jones prior to last season and a bizarre orbital fracture injury during pregame warmups in October. He has 13 interceptions to 11 touchdown passes, and 10 rushing touchdowns alongside nine fumbles. And Richardson has now been given permission by the Colts to seek a trade.
When Fields entered the draft, some scouts and evaluators saw him as equal to Lawrence, much like the two were coming out of high school in 2018. But others believed Fields was propped up by the scheme and talent around him at Ohio State. That’s part of the reason the two-time Heisman finalist, who went 20-2 with 67 touchdown passes to just nine interceptions, fell out of the top 10 in a quarterback-driven league.
Jones, the fifth quarterback drafted in 2021, was a highly regarded pocket passer out of Alabama with limited upside but a safe floor. He led the FBS in completion percentage (77.4%) and was second in touchdown passes (41) in leading the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020.
Predraft comparisons to Matt Ryan and Chad Pennington pointed to a lack of elite arm strength and mobility in Jones’ game, but they also highlighted efficient, accurate passing traits. That was the case early in his career, as Jones completed 67.6% of his passes for 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while leading the Patriots to the playoffs as a rookie.
Nix hit the ground running as a rookie, leading the Broncos to their first playoff berth since 2015. He built on that in his second season, throwing for 3,931 passing yards and 25 touchdowns in 2025 to help lead the Broncos to a 14-3 record and the AFC Championship Game. He fractured his ankle late in Denver’s divisional round win over the Bills, but Nix (54 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns in two seasons) has fit into Sean Payton’s offense nicely.
