John Mobley Jr. somehow hits this 3 in Ohio State’s upset win (0:20)John Mobley Jr. pulls up to sink a deep trey, and the Buckeyes continue to pour it on versus the Boilermakers. (0:20)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats
Losses at Arkansas and Texas have sent Texas A&M’s at-large chances tumbling, putting the Aggies at 68% in the consensus models. They do have three Quadrant 1-A wins and are 10th in the conference résumé rankings (42nd nationally), but comparing that résumé against fellow SEC bubble teams Texas and Auburn still won’t be an easy task for the committee. They close out the regular season against Kentucky and LSU.
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
The Bruins’ brief winning streak against Illinois and crosstown bubble rival USC came to an end on Saturday at Minnesota. Despite picking up their 10th loss, they have three Quadrant 1 victories on the season, placing their résumé eighth in what Bracketology projects to be a nine-bid Big Ten. Their consensus at-large odds remain a tick below 90% in the forecast models.
A three-game winning streak to open February had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but five straight losses — including to a ranked Nebraska team on Saturday — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 14%. They have the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be a nine-bid conference. Making matters worse, Sunday brought news that Chad Baker-Mazara, who leads the Trojans in scoring (18.6 PPG), is no longer with the program.
Virginia Tech’s big win over Wake Forest last week kept its bubble case in play, but Saturday’s loss at North Carolina was the Hokies’ fifth in seven games and dropped their consensus at-large chances into the teens. They have a case to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But with a 7-9 ACC record now, they are very much in limbo.
Arizona Wildcats Iowa State Cyclones Houston Cougars Texas Tech Red Raiders Kansas Jayhawks BYU Cougars
Coming off its ugliest loss of the season — by 15 points at Dayton — Saint Louis had to hold off Duquesne on Saturday to avoid a third loss in four games. The Billikens have been a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, and aren’t in much danger of not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary. They are still top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, and rank even better in the predictive ratings.
Seeking a third straight tournament bid for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico got closer to that reality on Saturday after avenging its Jan. 17 loss to San Diego. The Lobos’ chances are still around a coin flip based on their borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but they have more Quadrant 1 and 2 wins than the Aztecs and have now evened the head-to-head scales.
Georgia rebounded from a failed comeback bid at Vanderbilt to beat South Carolina on Saturday for its third win in four games, boosting the Dawgs’ consensus at-large chances to 95%. They now sit mid-30s in the overall résumé rankings, with four wins against Quadrant 1 foes, ranking seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Mostly on the other side of a challenging stretch of games, Georgia will close the regular season hosting Alabama before visiting Mississippi State in the finale.
Coming off an important win over Tennessee, Missouri got another on Saturday at Mississippi State in its sixth victory in eight games. The Tigers have now cracked the top nine of SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, they do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (19-9 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th hardest vs. fourth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as they sit in the high 80% range with two Quadrant 1 games left to close the regular season.
After blowing a second-half lead to Florida for its second consecutive loss earlier this week, Texas got a massive road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday. It gave the Longhorns a sixth Quadrant 1 win for the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even “lock” Tennessee) can boast. The consensus forecast sets their at-large chances at 81%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. At No. 11 in the SEC résumé rankings, they are still neck and neck with Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn (all are borderline top-40 nationally), so their tournament fate is still not assured, but past teams with similar résumés all made the tourney.
With Wednesday’s victory over fellow Big Ten bubble team Ohio State barely in the rearview, Iowa let Saturday’s game against Penn State slip away late as a big favorite. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes remain in relatively good shape. But the trip to State College was supposed to be the easy leg of their remaining schedule, as they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska.
Recovering from back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Iowa, the Buckeyes picked up a huge win for their at-large chances on Sunday. The victory over Purdue boosted their numbers into the 80% range, making them one of the weekend’s biggest winners. Ohio State ranks inside the top 40 of the predictive rankings, though the résumé figure has consistently lagged behind that, keeping the Buckeyes from escaping the bubble for very long. Even after beating Purdue, their résumé ranking (42nd overall, 9th in Big Ten) isn’t far from the cutline both nationally and for the league. But notching their first Quadrant 1-A win of the year was big before games against Penn State and bubble rival Indiana to close the schedule.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost four straight — to Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern and, on Sunday, Michigan State — plunging its conditional at-large probability down to 45%. The Hoosiers’ portfolio is losing ground relative to other bubble teams — Indiana now ranks outside the top 50 in the national résumé average, still 10th in the conference — even though the team remains among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. On a day when bubble rival Ohio State defeated Purdue, IU’s loss puts its tournament future in real flux.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State with a one-sided win over Boston College on Saturday. Their at-large chances (near 90%) and national résumé quality ranking (around top 30) are bunched up next to SMU and Clemson — the trio all fit within the top eight of the ACC with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be an eight-bid conference. A couple of tough opponents are next in SMU and Louisville, but the Canes are in good shape.
The Mustangs improved their projections over the past few weeks, but back-to-back losses at California and Stanford slowed that momentum. They have been neck and neck with Miami and Clemson, jockeying for the sixth position in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Despite the defeats, SMU’s consensus at-large chances are in the high 70% range — solid enough, if drifting some from both the Hurricanes and Tigers. All three teams are well clear of the conference’s “work to do” tier featuring Cal and Virginia Tech. The Mustangs will try to get back on track against Miami then Florida State.
With recent wins over TCU, Utah and BYU, the Knights had a chance to strengthen their résumé against Baylor on Saturday, but their attempted comeback fell short when they committed a late three-shot foul. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even better than No. 45 — they still easily own that seventh slot. They’ll look to rebound as favorites against Oklahoma State before closing out the regular season with what could be a résumé-padding opportunity at West Virginia.
The Horned Frogs continue to make a run for the Big 12’s final at-large bid with their sixth win in seven games, topping Kansas State on the road Saturday. Although their consensus at-large chances are in the 50% range, they have four Quadrant 1 wins with an opportunity to add one more at Texas Tech on Tuesday. The Frogs have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team even with Cincinnati surging, as their overall résumé is superior to that of the Bearcats, and the latest Bracketology sets the Big 12 with that many entries. If seven ends up being the league’s magic number, though, the Frogs are in trouble.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued Saturday with a blowout win hosting Oklahoma State for their fifth win in six games. They are still just borderline top 60 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances in the teens. At this point, their case really relies on two signature wins: vs. Iowa State and at Kansas. But they’ll have chances to add more, against BYU and TCU, before the regular season ends.